Argument45 =so what=小组第二次作业 by ZhouPYF

ZhouPYFUID: 2633778

好痛苦 写得……

ZhouPYFUID: 2633778

45.The following appeared as an editorial in a wildlife journal.
    "Arctic deer live on islands in Canada's arctic region. They search for food by moving over ice from island to island during the course of a year. Their habitat is limited to areas warm enough to sustain the plants on which they feed, and cold enough, at least some of the year, for the ice to cover the sea separating the islands, allowing the deer to travel over it. Unfortunately, according to reports from local hunters, the deer populations are declining. Since these reports coincide with recent global warming trends that have caused the sea ice to melt, we can conclude that the decline in arctic deer populations is the result of deer being unable to follow their age-old migration patterns across the frozen sea."
  提纲
1报告不一定准确
2变暖和数量减少之间没有必然联系
3 当地不一定变暖

ZhouPYFUID: 2633778

In this argument the author concludes that because the arctic deer can not follow their age-old migration patterns across the frozen sea, the number of the deer declines a lot. In order to support his conclusions, he cites two facts, one is from local hunters' reports, which tell the deer populations are declining and the other one is the recent global warming trends which have cause the sea ice to melt. Even if the author's reasoning seem to attractive, we may still perceive that this argument rests on a series of unconfirmed assumptions, and is therefore unconvincing as it stands..

To begin with, the reports from the hunters lack credibility. Maybe the population of the deer does not decline but the deer are hard to hunter, so hunters reported that the number of the deer decreased, which actually is not the fact. Unless the author provides more information about the reports, I can not consider the contents as an powerful evidence.

Moreover, even if the conclusion of the reports from the hunters is true, the author commits a fallacy of causal coinstantaneous between the decline in arctic deer populations and recent global warming trends in assuming that global warming trends is the one and only reason behind deer population decline.  there are lots of reasons why the population of the deer is declining, maybe there is a certain kind of disease cause the declining, maybe there is pollution cause the declining or may be the census area is different from the last time's. Those all will cause the result that the number of the deer is declining. In short, unless the author eliminates other factors for decline of deer population, the conclusion is unwarranted as it stands.

Finally, global warming trends does not necessary hit the local area. The specific region may not be warming at present, it is possible that the area is becoming cooler, so more information should be provided to prove the causal relationship.

In conclusion, the argument will be more convincing if author provides us with the detail information of the hunters' report and the accurate reason of the declining of the deer's number, we also need to know whether global warming trends is affecting the area or not. Otherwise, the argument would be highly unacceptable.

gabywUID: 2633725

In this argument the author concludes that because the arctic deer can not follow their age-old migration patterns across the frozen sea, the number of the deer declines a lot. In order to support his conclusions, he cites two facts, one is from local hunters' reports, which tell the deer populations are declining and the other one is the recent global warming trends which have caused the sea ice to melt. Even if the author's reasoning seem to attractive, we may still perceive that this argument rests on a series of unconfirmed assumptions, and is therefore unconvincing as it stands..

To begin with, the reports from the hunters lack credibility. Maybe the population of the deer does not decline but the deer are hard to hunter, so hunters reported that the number of the deer decreased, which actually is not the fact. Unless the author provides more information about the reports, I can not consider the contents as powerful evidence. (论据不充分)

Moreover, even if the conclusion of the reports from the hunters is true, the author commits a fallacy of causal coinstantaneous between the decline in arctic deer populations and recent global warming trends in assuming that global warming trends is the one and only reason behind deer population decline.  There are lots of reasons why the population of the deer is declining, first ，色second, …..maybe there is a certain kind of disease causes the declining, maybe there is pollution cause the declining or may be the census area is different from the last times. Those all will cause (all of those can cause) the result that the number of the deer is declining. In short, unless the author eliminates other factors for decline of deer population, the conclusion is unwarranted as it stands.

Finally, global warming trends do not necessary hit the local area. The specific region may not be warming at present, it is possible that the area is becoming cooler, so more information should be provided to prove the causal relationship.(论证单薄)

In conclusion, the argument will be more convincing if author provides us with the detail information of the hunters' report and the accurate reason of the declining of the deer's number, we also need to know whether global warming trends is affecting the area or not. Otherwise, the argument would be highly unacceptable

XOXLOLUID: 2309408

In this argument the author concludes that because the arctic deer can not follow their age-old migration patterns across the frozen sea, the number of the deer declines a lot. In order to support his conclusions(不用加s吧）, he cites two facts, one is from local hunters' reports, which tell the deer populations are declining and the other one is the recent global warming trends which have cause the sea ice to melt. Even if the author's reasoning seem to attractive(seems to be attractive/seems attractive), we may still perceive that this argument rests on a series of unconfirmed assumptions, and is therefore unconvincing as it stands..

To begin with, the reports from the hunters lack credibility.(这里展开一下为什么lack credibility比较好，后面突然来个否定题目的论据会显得唐突） Maybe the population of the deer does not decline but the deer are hard to hunter, so hunters reported that the number of the deer decreased, which actually is not the fact. Unless the author provides more information about the reports, I can not consider the contents as an powerful evidence.

Moreover, even if the conclusion of the reports from the hunters is true, the author commits a fallacy of causal coinstantaneous between the decline in arctic deer populations and recent global warming trends in assuming that global warming trends is the one and only reason behind deer population decline.（本段的ts好绕啊，有模板痕迹，简单点好）  there are lots of reasons why the population of the deer is declining, maybe there is a certain kind of disease cause（causing) the declining, maybe there is pollution cause the declining(前面刚用了cause the declining这里换个说法吧） or may be the census area is different from the last time's. Those all will cause the result that the number of the deer is declining. In short, unless the author eliminates other factors for decline of deer population, the conclusion is unwarranted as it stands.

Finally, global warming trends does not necessary（necessarily) hit the local area. The specific region may not be warming at present, it is possible that the area is becoming cooler, so more information should be provided to prove the causal relationship.

In conclusion, the argument will be more convincing if author provides us with the detail information of the hunters' report and the accurate reason of the declining of the deer's number, we also need to know whether global warming trends is affecting the area or not. Otherwise, the argument would be highly unacceptable.
逻辑和语言都没问题，写得很好。论证地时候reasoning可以近一步具体展开一下，马上甩出种种反对地可能有点难服人。