Argument45=So What=小组第2次作业 by fengrui129

fengrui129UID: 2639927

ARGUMENT45 - The following appeared as an editorial in a wildlife journal.
"Arctic deer live on islands in Canada's arctic region. They search for food by moving over ice from island to island during the course of a year. Their habitat is limited to areas warm enough to sustain the plants on which they feed, and cold enough, at least some of the year, for the ice to cover the sea separating the islands, allowing the deer to travel over it. Unfortunately, according to reports from local hunters, the deer populations are declining. Since these reports coincide with recent global warming trends that have caused the sea ice to melt, we can conclude that the decline in arctic deer populations is the result of deer being unable to follow their age-old migration patterns across the frozen sea."

1.
reports from local hunters， 那么数据一定准确么，既没有准确数字，也没有比值，而仅仅依赖于local hunters的reports 是不明智的,也许只是由于粗心的猎人没发现。
2.
外推类错误，就算数据准确，鹿的数量的下降又一定是全球变暖引起的冰融化有关么？不能仅仅因为它们发生的时间无大差别就武断的认为·······
3.
也许是人的屠杀，也许是植物的原因，也许是它们种群自身的原因
4.
无根据因果，预期deer 的数量会下降merely based on the assumption that 鹿不能遵守它们祖先的生活模式。也许它们会改变它们的生活方式，它们会学会适应环境，不断的进化自己。

fengrui129UID: 2639927

In this editorial, the author infers that the number will show a downward trend in the following years due to the result of deer being unable to follow their age-old migration patterns across the frozen sea. To support this conclusion, the author mentions the Arctic deer’s living behaviors and a report from local hunters indicating the number of deer is declining. The author also cites the fact that recent global warming trends that have caused the sea ice to melt.  Yet close scrutiny of these facts reveals that none of them lends credible support to the editorial.

First of all, the fact that reports from the local hunter amounts to scant evidence that the number of deer really experienced a dramatic decline. More specifically, their reports mention neither precise decreasing numbers of deer nor the information about the relative percentage, thus this report is statistically unconvincing. Even assuming that those hunters really observe this situation about the downward trend of deer numbers, there exists the possibility that the hunters fail to find deer due to their inattention.

Secondly, the fact that the thaw of the ice derive from recent global warming trends does not necessarily indicate that the decline in arctic deer populations. Other such factors might include the slaughter of mankind, a decrease of plants which deer rely on, or even some changes have taken place in this species. Common sense informs us that those factors, more often than not, exert influence on the number of a species. Without ruling out those possibilities, the author’s assertion that the disappearance of ice result in the decline of arctic deer populations   cannot be taken seriously.

Thirdly, merely based on the dubious assumption that deer cannot go behind the stereotype of migration across the frozen type, the arguer rashly infers that the total number of deer will show a decline. Yet the author can hardly provide evidence to support this assumption. It is entirely possible that the change of deer’s old habitat does serve to enhance the deer population, for they may do their utmost to get accustomed to the environment and optimize their genes. Moreover, they are likely to give up migration and explore other plants for food in their own domain. Without considering these scenarios, the author’s conclusion is premature at best.

In conclusion, the argument is unpersuasive as it stands. To bolster it the argument’s author must show ----perhaps by way of a reliable report cited specific data conducted by authority rather local hunters. The author must also provide better evidence that replenishing the thaw of ice would indeed cause the decline of deer’s number.   

terraliUID: 2599465

In this editorial, the author infers that the number will show a downward trend in the following years due to the result of deer being unable to follow their age-old migration patterns across the frozen sea. To support this conclusion, the author mentions the Arctic deer’s living behaviors and a report from local hunters indicating the number of deer is declining. The author also cites the fact that recent global warming trends that have caused the sea ice to melt.  Yet close scrutiny of these facts reveals that none of them lends credible support to the editorial.

First of all, the fact that reports from the local hunter amounts to scant evidence that the number of deer really experienced a dramatic decline. More specifically, their reports mention neither precise decreasing numbers of deer nor the information about the relative percentage, thus this report is statistically unconvincing.我觉得this statistics is unconvincing.更好一些 Even assuming that those hunters really observe this situation about the downward trend of deer numbers, there exists the possibility that the hunters fail to find deer due to their inattention.

Secondly, the fact that the thaw of the ice derive from recent global warming trends does not necessarily indicate that the decline in arctic deer populations从句里是不是缺个成分？为什么我读起来觉得半截话的感觉？. Other such factors might include the slaughter of mankind, a decrease of plants which deer rely on, or even some changes have taken place in this species. Common sense informs us that those factors, more often than not, exert influence on the number of a species. Without ruling out those possibilities, the author’s assertion that the disappearance of ice result in the decline of arctic deer populations   cannot be taken seriously.

Thirdly, merely based on the dubious assumption that deer cannot go behind the stereotype 这个词值得商榷。查了下英英， 是“a conventional or formulaic conception or image ”思想上的陈腐。of migration across the frozen type, the arguer rashly infers that the total number of deer will show a decline. Yet the author can hardly provide evidence to support this assumption. It is entirely possible that the change of deer’s old habitat does serve to enhance the deer population, for they may do their utmost to get accustomed to the environment and optimize their genes. Moreover, they are likely to give up migration and explore other plants for food in their own domain. Without considering these scenarios, the author’s conclusion is premature at best.

我个人觉得这一段的论证不是很强，题目的逻辑是 天热-冰化-传统迁移方式不能保持，而作者在反驳里的逻辑是天热-冰化-传统迁移方式不能保持-可能会适应或者进化，是不是有点过度引申或者离题？ 如果只针对题目的逻辑来攻击呢？就是说，天热未必冰化，冰化未必化到会影响传统迁移方式这样呢？因为题目说的是，这几年天热了鹿少了，可作者的说可能它们适应了或者进化了，感觉有点牵强。因为适应或进化毕竟需要长时间。

In conclusion, the argument is unpersuasive as it stands. To bolster it the argument’s author must show ----perhaps by way of a reliable report cited specific data conducted by authority rather local hunters. The author must also provide better evidence that replenishing the thaw of ice would indeed cause the decline of deer’s number.   


嗯，赞一个作者的语言功底，不知道作者在写AW的时候是否还有语言运用的限制，不过我觉得，是不是可以适当增加字数了？多提一些驳斥的可能性，在指出题目错误的时候说深一点，更丰满具体一些，冲击5+啊