Argument提纲 =So What=小组第2次作业 by 灿烂千阳灿烂

灿烂千阳灿烂UID: 2538650

21.The following appeared in a memo from the new vice president of
Sartorian, a company that manufactures men's clothing.

"Five years ago, at a time when we had difficulties in obtaining reliable
supplies of high-quality wool fabric, we discontinued production of our
deluxe alpaca overcoats. Now that we have a new fabric supplier, we should
resume production. This coat should sell very well: since we have not
offered an alpaca overcoat for five years and since our major competitor
no longer makes an alpaca overcoat, there will be pent-up customer demand.
Also, since the price of most types of clothing has risen in each of the
past five years, customers should be willing to pay significantly higher
prices for alpaca overcoats than they did five years ago, and our company
profits will increase."

1.
不能推测原因。五年没生产，主要竞争对手不生产这个是否因为没有销路和买家。或者deluze alpaca overcoats已经过时了。
2.
过去不能推未来，价格在五年内上升，是总体经济上升，但并不一定人们就能支付得起所有用品，可能本来就很反感价格上升，对于更高的prices for alpaca overcoats不一定能接受。
3.
我们的公司也不一定获利很多，制造的成本也高了，重新打入市场还得宣传等，费用不小。


22.The following appeared in a memo from the president of a company that
builds and sells new homes in Steel City.

"Over the past five years, the population of Steel City has increased by
more than 20 percent, and family incomes in Steel City have risen much
faster than the national average. Nationwide, sales of houses priced above
$150,000 have increased more than have sales of lower-priced houses. Such
data indicate that we should make changes in our business to increase
company profits. First, we should build fewer low-priced houses than we
did last year and focus instead on building houses designed to sell at
above $150,000. Second, we should hire additional workers so that we can
build a larger total number of houses than we did last year."
1.
数据问题。人口基数，家庭收入是与全国平均水平比较，而非时间纵轴上跟自己城市比，销量增长也是在全国范围的调查。
2.
即使调查全部准确，我们也不应该由过去五年的情况就武断应该据此调整方案。加大力度建设高价房，资金运转等会不会给公司带来压力？
3.
雇佣更多工人依据何在？会保证效率更高吗？工资等。。。



23.A recent sales study indicated that consumption of seafood dishes in
Bay City restaurants has increased by 30 percent over the past five years.
Yet there are no currently operating city restaurants that specialize in
seafood. Moreover, the majority of families in Bay City are two-income
families, and a nationwide study has shown that such families eat
significantly fewer home-cooked meals than they did a decade ago but at
the same time express more concern about eating healthily. Therefore, a
new Bay City restaurant specializing in seafood will be quite popular and
profitable.

1.
调查的问题。
2.
没有专门的商店是否也表示本身开不下去呢？利润不高、没有顾客。。。应该深入调查。
3.
双收入家庭与国家层面的调查不coincidence.更关注饮食健康不代表倾向于吃海鲜，说不定认为海鲜多半处理得不干净或不新鲜而不光顾。
4.
利润，海鲜成本？保管？运输？人口多吗？

24.The following appeared in a memo from the president of Viva-Tech, a
manufacturer of high-tech medical equipment.

"In order to reduce costs, we should close some of our existing small
assembly plants and build a large central plant. Grandview would be an
ideal location for this new plant. First, of the locations that we have
considered, Grandview has the largest adult population, so that we will be
able to staff our plant quickly and easily. Second, since the average wage
earned by workers in Grandview is less than that in the other locations,
we should be able to keep production costs low. Last, as an inducement for
us to build there, Grandview's town council has offered to allow us to
operate for the first three years without paying city taxes."

1.
关闭小的装配厂，建大的，费用就会减少吗？建设费，搬运，管理，员工培训等。
2.
当地工资水平低，未必成本就压低，说不定当地经济不发达，教育也很落后，招来的员工需要公司花很多时间和金钱培训。
3.
前三年不赋税，三年后呢？税会不会更高？
4.
没考虑其他选择。交通便利，离销售点远近，高质量的工作人员。

25.The following appeared in a memo from the mayor of the town of
Hopewell.

"Two years ago, the town of Ocean View built a new municipal golf course
and resort hotel. During the past two years, tourism in Ocean View has
increased, new businesses have opened there, and Ocean View's tax revenues
have risen by 30 percent. The best way to improve Hopewell's economy, and
generate additional tax revenues, is to build a golf course and resort
hotel similar to those in Ocean View."

1.
不是建了这些东东而导致旅客和商业增加，而是因为本身旅客有所增加，商业兴起当地才有了这样的需求。或者由于政府想开发ocean view，其他政策倾斜导致旅游业上升。
2.
30%，基数？
3.
A地不能推B地。


26.The following appeared in a memo from the chairperson of the school
board in the town of Saluda.

"For the past five years, Mr. Charles Schade has been the music director
at Steel City High School, and during that time the school band from Steel
City High has won three regional band competitions. In addition, the
quality of the music rehearsal facilities and musical instruments at Steel
City High has improved markedly over the past five years. Because of such
successes at Steel City High, the Saluda school board should hire Mr.
Schade to plan and direct the general music education programs for the
entire Saluda school system."

1.
赢得地区比赛原因。而且CHARLES来以前呢？是不是获奖更多。其他乐队情况如何？我们不能只凭这一个数据就归功于他。
2.
排练设备得到改善也并不是他的功劳，是学校或政府拨款，私人捐助还是别的什么原因？
3.
适合steel city高中，不一定适合我们，不了解背景、文化等。。。并且，除他外，没有更合适的人了吗？



27.The following appeared as part of a memo from the president of
Automate, a company that manufactures automobiles.

"It has come to my attention that Sparks, Inc., the manufacturing company
that just moved into our state, is advertising job openings at salaries
that are twice as high as those paid to our experienced assembly-line
workers. Some of our employees have already left to work for Sparks. In
order to keep our best staff, we must pay them salaries equal to those
Sparks pays its employees. Otherwise we will continue to lose employees in
the future, because Sparks must staff the additional new plants that it
plans to build in the state."

1.
spark公司只是广告如此，可能实际提供的并不是，这么做只是为了宣传。
2.
我们一些员工去那边工作真的得到了那么高的报酬吗？即使真的得到了，但他们都是为了钱吗？还是更便利？组织文化更好？交通，工作制度，等等？
3.
涨工资不是长久之计，这样以后一旦遇到此种情况就会要以调工资为由吗？会形成a vicious circle。企业应该想的是如何谋求更好发展，吸引更多的人才自动过来而不是这种方式。

28.The following is a memo from the superintendent of the Mylar school
district.

"A recent six-month study, in which breakfast was made available at school
for 100 schoolchildren ages five to twelve, found that children on the
breakfast plan were less likely than other children to be absent from or
late for school. Clearly, eating breakfast before school plays a role in
reducing student absenteeism and tardiness. It is also well known that
children who regularly eat a healthful breakfast tend to perform better in
school. Therefore, in order to reduce absenteeism and tardiness and to
improve academic performance in all of Mylar's elementary and secondary
schools, we should provide breakfasts for all students before each school
day."

1.
调查的问题。
2.
post hoc, ergo propter hoc不缺席原因是因为吃早餐吗？
3.
什么叫众所周知吃早餐的儿童表现更好？
4.
不迟到缺席、表现好不一定成绩就好。

29.When Ida McAllister ran for mayor of Lake City four years ago, she
failed to win even 30 percent of the vote. But since then, McAllister has
made public her commitment to environmental causes. She would be wise,
therefore, to announce her intention to close all Lake City parks to
automobile traffic, thus following the example of the former mayor of
Plainsville, Alecia Yu . On the recommendation of a small group of
concerned citizens, Mayor Yu prohibited automobile traffic in all
Plainsville parks, and therefore was credited with solving the pollution
problem and improving the quality of life in Plainsville. This action
would have great appeal to the citizens of Lake City, most of whom
participate in the community's recycling program, and would guarantee
McAllister's success in her current quest to be Lake City's new mayor.

1.
关于竞选，竞选的不到30%的选票不能说明票数少，说不定candidates很多，能拿到这么多很高了，说明群众基础本来就不差。
2.
之前的例子不能不加分析地作为参考。相同点不同点。
3.
支持前市长那个Prohibition的只是很少一部分，说明很艰难，现在还适用吗？BTW,参加循环项目不代表支持这个prohibition。


30.According to information recently reported in the Eliottown Gazette,
the number of people who travel to Eliottown has increased significantly
over the past several years. So far this year over 100,000 people have
arrived on flights to Eliottown's airport, compared with only 80,000 last
year and 40,000 the year before. Eliottown's train station has received
more than 50,000 passengers this year, compared with less than 40,000 last
year and 20,000 the year before. Clearly tourism in Eliottown has been
increasing, thanks to the new Central Park and Museum of Modern Art that
opened last year. Therefore, the funding for the park and museum should be
increased significantly.

1.
只说了飞机和火车，不代表全部的tourists。客流量也不代表旅客。可能出差学习等。
2.
没有任何evidence and data表明是由于中央公园和博物馆。也许是交通便利、新的旅游景点等。
3.
既然人多，肯定赚，就不需要拨款了啊。没有证据说不够钱，或者可能刚刚才拨过呢。