Argument提纲 =So What=小组第2次作业 by ZhouPYF

ZhouPYFUID: 2633778

21.The following appeared in a memo from the new vice president of Sartorian, a company that manufactures men's clothing.
    "Five years ago, at a time when we had difficulties in obtaining reliable supplies of high-quality wool fabric, we discontinued production of our deluxe alpaca overcoats. Now that we have a new fabric supplier, we should resume production. This coat should sell very well: since we have not offered an alpaca overcoat for five years and since our major competitor no longer makes an alpaca overcoat, there will be pent-up customer demand. Also, since the price of most types of clothing has risen in each of the
past five years, customers should be willing to pay significantly higher prices for alpaca overcoats than they did five years ago, and our company profits will increase."


论断：重新做衣服，公司赢利会上升。因为5年没有卖这种衣服了，这种服装会卖得很好，市场上肯定会有大量需求，而且五年来服装价格每年都上升，人们肯定愿意付比五年前更多高的价格来购买这种服装。
1现在不一定有这个市场，五年前的情况不能推断现在的情况
2人们不一定愿意用比5年前高的价格购买。
3赢利不能保证，成本很重要
结论：结论是在没有做任何实际调查得出的，我们需要了解现在的服装市场，以及目前的运营成本。

22.The following appeared in a memo from the president of a company that builds and sells new homes in Steel City.
    "Over the past five years, the population of Steel City has increased by more than 20 percent, and family incomes in Steel City have risen much faster than the national average. Nationwide, sales of houses priced above $150,000 have increased more than have sales of lower-priced houses. Such data indicate that we should make changes in our business to increase company profits. First, we should build fewer low-priced houses than we did last year and focus instead on building houses designed to sell at above $150,000. Second, we should hire additional workers so that we can build a larger total number of houses than we did last year."
1贵的房子的销售增长多但是并不能保证销售数量多，也许是因为本身基数小，才使得增速看起来很大
2没有任何证据表明高价房比低价房更受欢迎，或是卖得更快，这个前提并不能保证成立
3论断引用全国的情况做为参考，不能代表本地区的实际情况

应该具体了解一下本地的经济状况以及房屋销售的市场


23.A recent sales study indicated that consumption of seafood dishes in Bay City restaurants has increased by 30 percent over the past five years. Yet there are no currently operating city restaurants that specialize in seafood. Moreover, the majority of families in Bay City are two-income families, and a nationwide study has shown that such families eat significantly fewer home-cooked meals than they did a decade ago but at the same time express more concern about eating healthily. Therefore, a new Bay City restaurant specializing in seafood will be quite popular and profitable.

论断：建一个专门的海鲜饭店会受赚钱。因为过去5年里本市饭店里海鲜的消费量增长了30%，而目前也没有一家专门的海鲜餐馆。另外本市大多数家庭都是双收入，一份全国性的调查显示这样的家庭比十年前更少地在家里做饭

1因为论者没有提供任何证据以证明当地人想要一家专门的海鲜饭店，也没有证据表明本市人对目前普通餐馆的海鲜供应不满意。。
2  论断的论据中也存在问题。论者说本市的家庭多为双收入的，而全国范围来说这样的家庭较少在家里吃，而更关心饮食健康。全国的经验不一定适用本地的
3 论据说专门的海鲜店会受欢迎会赚钱，但是成本服务等等因素都没有被考虑

结论：论者还需要提供有关本市的具体情况以及经营的具体方案。

24.The following appeared in a memo from the president of Viva-Tech, a manufacturer of high-tech medical equipment.
    "In order to reduce costs, we should close some of our existing small assembly plants and build a large central plant. Grandview would be an ideal location for this new plant. First, of the locations that we have considered, Grandview has the largest adult population, so that we will be able to staff our plant quickly and easily. Second, since the average wage earned by workers in Grandview is less than that in the other locations, we should be able to keep production costs low. Last, as an inducement for us to build there, Grandview's town council has offered to allow us to operate for the first three years without paying city taxes."
   1新建厂房不一定必先有厂房省钱，没有与原来的厂房进行对比
2劳动力虽然片依，但是不知道是否适合工厂工作
3交通原材料将来的税收等都没有被考虑进去

结论：作者应该再进一步调查当地劳动力的技术水平以及当地政府对于今后的税收政策，以及当地的交通情况。

25.The following appeared in a memo from the mayor of the town of Hopewell.
    "Two years ago, the town of Ocean View built a new municipal golf course and resort hotel. During the past two years, tourism in Ocean View has increased, new businesses have opened there, and Ocean View's tax revenues have risen by 30 percent. The best way to improve Hopewell's economy, and
generate additional tax revenues, is to build a golf course and resort hotel similar to those in Ocean View."
   

论断：建一个高尔夫场和假日饭店，是提升Hopewell经济和税收的最好方法。因为隔壁两年前这么做了，他们取了效果。
   
1本市不一定没有高尔夫球场合假日饭店

2隔壁的经验不具备说服力，增长多，但是可能基数很小，另外两个地方的具体情况也不同
3这个不一定是最好的方法，没有和其他途径进行比较



26.The following appeared in a memo from the chairperson of the school board in the town of Saluda.
    "For the past five years, Mr. Charles Schade has been the music director at Steel City High School, and during that time the school band from Steel City High has won three regional band competitions. In addition, the quality of the music rehearsal facilities and musical instruments at Steel City High has improved markedly over the past five years. Because of such successes at Steel City High, the Saluda school board should hire Mr. Schade to plan and direct the general music education programs for the entire Saluda school system."

Steel City High School,Mr. Charles Schade 论断：应该雇Mr. Charles Schade去指导整个学校系统的普通音乐教育课程。因为在他指导钢铁中学音乐教育的五年里，该校的乐队获得了三次地区乐队比赛。而且该校的音乐水平和设施也都有显著提高。
1现阶段整个学校的情况没有说明
是否已经有人来指导
2
Mr.Schade非常成功不一定是他本身的原因，可能那个中学本身音乐实力就很强
3 两个学校不一样，Mr.Schade在钢铁中学的成功，不能保证Mr.Schade能够把在钢铁中学的成绩带到新的工作中来。



27.The following appeared as part of a memo from the president of Automate, a company that manufactures automobiles.
   "It has come to my attention that Sparks, Inc., the manufacturing company that just moved into our state, is advertising job openings at salaries that are twice as high as those paid to our experienced assembly-line workers. Some of our employees have already left to work for Sparks. In order to keep our best staff, we must pay them salaries equal to those Sparks pays its employees. Otherwise we will continue to lose employees in the future, because Sparks must staff the additional new plants that it plans to build in the state."

论断：如果我们不付给员工和Sparks一样多的钱，今后就会继续流失员工。因为Sparks登广告用高我们有经验的工人一倍的薪水招聘。目前我们有员工已经辞职去了Sparks，而Sparks为他在这州新建的厂必须还要招人。

1 论断的前提是Sparks可能向我们所有的员工提供高薪水，但这一前提并没有被论断保证成立。论者没有告诉我们两家公司的工作是否完全相同，是否我们的员工在Sparks都能找到合适的工作，是否我们的员工Sparks都想要。
2  没有资料显示辞职的员工是因为高薪才去的，也没有证据表明薪水的高低是员工选择工作的唯一或是最重要的标准。
3但没有证据证明现在的工人要求加薪，也没有证据说明还有工人想去Sparks。甚至没有证据证明工人们觉得Sparks的工作很有吸引力。论者仅是凭猜测得出的结论。


28.The following is a memo from the superintendent of the Mylar school district.
     "A recent six-month study, in which breakfast was made available at school for 100 schoolchildren ages five to twelve, found that children on the breakfast plan were less likely than other children to be absent from or late for school. Clearly, eating breakfast before school plays a role in reducing student absenteeism and tardiness. It is also well known that children who regularly eat a healthful breakfast tend to perform better in school. Therefore, in order to reduce absenteeism and tardiness and to improve academic performance in all of Mylar's elementary and secondary schools, we should provide breakfasts for all students before each school day."
Mylar school district,breakfast 论断：我们应该向所有学生提供早餐。因为上课前吃早餐对于降低学生旷课迟到有很大作用。最近在提供早餐的学校做的一项研究显示，5到12岁的孩子中，吃学校早餐的孩子比别的孩子少旷课少迟到。而且我们都知道经常吃健康早餐的孩子学校表现要好一些。
1作者没有证明在吃早餐和迟到旷课这两种行为之间有某种因果关系。
2 论断的论据也不具备说服力5到12岁孩子不能代表所有学生。
3经常吃早餐的孩子在学校的表现通常比较好这个结论没有事实根据

29.When Ida McAllister ran for mayor of Lake City four years ago, she failed to win even 30 percent of the vote. But since then, McAllister has made public her commitment to environmental causes. She would be wise, therefore, to announce her intention to close all Lake City parks to automobile traffic, thus following the example of the former mayor of Plainsville, Alecia Yu . On the recommendation of a small group of concerned citizens, Mayor Yu prohibited automobile traffic in all Plainsville parks, and therefore was credited with solving the pollution problem and improving the quality of life in Plainsville. This action would have great appeal to the citizens of Lake City, most of whom participate in the community's recycling program, and would guarantee McAllister's success in her current quest to be Lake City's new mayor.


1论者没有提供任何证据以表明本城的居民不希望公园对汽车开放，也没有提供任何资料表明本城的汽车污染和空气污染受到了居民的关注。本城的居民并不一定欢迎这样的做法。
2另一城的前任市长的经验不能应用在这个城市
3市长竞选涉及问题很多，市民也不会只看环境一项，他们还会关心候选人是否有办法诸如降低犯罪率，改善财政情况等等。


30.According to information recently reported in the Eliottown Gazette, the number of people who travel to Eliottown has increased significantly over the past several years. So far this year over 100,000 people have arrived on flights to Eliottown's airport, compared with only 80,000 last year and 40,000 the year before. Eliottown's train station has received more than 50,000 passengers this year, compared with less than 40,000 last year and 20,000 the year before. Clearly tourism in Eliottown has been increasing, thanks to the new Central Park and Museum of Modern Art that opened last year. Therefore, the funding for the park and museum should be increased significantly.

论断：应该给公园和博物馆多拨钱。因为去年开章的中心公园和现代艺术博物馆吸为当地吸引了很多游客。论断指出过去几年里到当地旅游的人明显增多，并指出今年坐飞机和坐火车来的旅客都比前两年多很多。
1没有提供任何资料表明今年增加的游客是为了这两个项目来的，他甚至没有提供有关这两个项目开章后吸引了多少游客。
2 论断的论据也没有说服力。论断的论据是乘飞机和坐火车来本地旅游的人的数字增长。这组数据只能表明当地游客在上升，同样也不能说明这两个项目的吸引力。
3论断没有提供任何资料以表明这两个项目需要更多的拨款。