Argument提纲21-30=So What=小组第2次作业 by mqi07

mqi07UID: 2521740

Argument提纲21-30=So What=小组第2次作业 by mqi07

21.The following appeared in a memo from the new vice president of Sartorian, a company that manufactures men's
clothing.
"Five years ago, at a time when we had difficulties in obtaining reliable supplies of high-quality wool fabric, we
discontinued production of our deluxe alpaca overcoats. Now that we have a new fabric supplier, we should resume
production. This coat should sell very well: since we have not offered an alpaca overcoat for five years and since our
major competitor no longer makes an alpaca overcoat, there will be pent-up customer demand. Also, since the price of
most types of clothing has risen in each of the past five years, customers should be willing to pay significantly higher
prices for alpaca overcoats than they did five years ago, and our company profits will increase."
五年前，当我们在获取可靠的高质量羊毛毛料的渠道方面存在困难的时候，我们停止了高档羊毛外衣的生产。现
在有了新的毛料供应商，我们应该重新开始生产。这种外衣应该卖得很好：因为我们已经五年没有供应羊毛外衣
了，而且由于我们的主要竞争对手已不再生产羊毛外衣，消费者将有很迫切的需求。而且，由于过去五年中多数
种类的服装价格每年都在上涨，消费者应该愿意花比五年前高的多的价格购买羊毛外衣，从而我们公司的利润将
会上升。

to begin with, the author fails to sunstantiate the assumption that the new fabric supplier is reliable and the wool fabric
supplied by it  is highly-quality.

secondly, there is no cogent evidence to prove the arguer's standpoint  that such fabric coat should sell very well  
based on the assumption that  the customers have urgent demand for such coats . but he dose not provide persuasive
information to confirm his view. first, no offering such coat in five years' and the competitiors' no longer producing it are
not sufficient to establish the point that the customers have urgent demand for it.很有可能由于这个主要竞争对手证实
由于这个市场的不好才不卖,那么消费者根本不可能有需求. even if 消费者高需求，也不能就证明外衣能卖得好：
作者没有考虑其他的因素

finally 没有充分证明利益会增加 ：虽然服装价格每年都在长，但不代表消费者会愿意花多的钱去买。首先，作者
没说这个衣服在不在多种涨价的范围内，其次，即使真的长了，作者也没有提供信息来说明消费者一定要买贵的
，很有可能买别种材料的但价钱便宜的coat . 即使消费者真的买，也不能说利润多了，因为影响利润的因素有好多
。。。



22.The following appeared in a memo from the president of a company that builds and sells new homes in Steel City.
"Over the past five years, the population of Steel City has increased by more than 20 percent, and family incomes in
Steel City have risen much faster than the national average. Nationwide, sales of houses priced above $150,000 have
increased more than have sales of lower-priced houses. Such data indicate that we should make changes in our
business to increase company profits. First, we should build fewer low-priced houses than we did last year and focus
instead on building houses designed to sell at above $150,000. Second, we should hire additional workers so that we
can build a larger total number of houses than we did last year."
过去五年中，Steel City的人口增加超过了20％，家庭收入的上涨比全国平均水平快的多。在全国范围，房价在
$150000以上的房产销量的增长比低价房产要多。这些数据显示我们的业务应该进行一些变革来增加利润。首先
，我们所建设的低价位房产应该比去年少，而集中力量建设房价在$150000以上的房产。其次，我们应该雇佣更
多的工人从而保证我们能够比去年建设更多的房屋。

1 增长快 不代表收入水平高，因为基数有可能小,这样的话，有可能基数很低，即使增长得再快，其水平还是愿打
不到买高价房的能力；即使收入水平高，也不能保整高价房子卖得好：其他因素如人的意愿---有可能在这不缺房
子，人们大都有产业,或者，人们即使缺房子，也是先考虑低价房。
2  数据问题： 没说时间--如果距离久远则由于变化因素多，那么不能作为现在的依据；另外，草率推广---不能从
整体推个别，全国范围调查的结果不能。。。
3 没能说明 雇佣更多的工人能增加利润

23.A recent sales study indicated that consumption of seafood dishes in Bay City restaurants has increased by 30
percent over the past five years. Yet there are no currently operating city restaurants that specialize in seafood.
Moreover, the majority of families in Bay City are two-income families, and a nationwide study has shown that such
families eat significantly fewer home-cooked meals than they did a decade ago but at the same time express more
concern about eating healthily. Therefore, a new Bay City restaurant specializing in seafood will be quite popular and
profitable.
最近的销量调查显示Bay City餐馆的海鲜菜肴的消费量比过去五年增加了30％。而现在该市还没有专门经营海鲜菜
的餐厅。而且，Bay City的大多数家庭是双收入家庭，一次国家调查显示这类家庭在家做饭的数量比十年前显著减
少，同时他们更关注健康饮食。因此，在Bay City开设一家新的专营海鲜食品的餐馆将会非常受欢迎而且有利可图
。
1 the mere fact that consumption of seafood dishes in Bay City restaurants has increased by 30 percent over the past
five years cannnot indicate that the seafood in BC are popular and profitable. it is entirely possible that  all kinds of food
in BC over the past five years has increased, including the seafood. for example,if  the average increase is more than
30%, then 30% increase of seafood just show that the  it is less popular than other food.  in addition, we are not
informed of the  consumption of seafood before 5 years,  if it was such low that even though it has been increased 30,
the result is still very low ,that is to say, unpopuplar

2 全国对于双收入家庭的调查并不意味着Bar City同样适用(而且他们不愿意在家里吃也不代表他们愿意出去吃的是
海鲜~~）

3  作者同样忽略了其他因素：比如Bar City当地的餐厅数量很多而且对于海鲜食品的供应是否已经足够丰富；或者
是否Bar City的居民的饮食习惯




24.The following appeared in a memo from the president of Viva-Tech, a manufacturer of high-tech medical
equipment.
"In order to reduce costs, we should close some of our existing small assembly plants and build a large central plant.
Grandview would be an ideal location for this new plant. First, of the locations that we have considered, Grandview has
the largest adult population, so that we will be able to staff our plant quickly and easily. Second, since the average
wage earned by workers in Grandview is less than that in the other locations, we should be able to keep production
costs low. Last, as an inducement for us to build there, Grandview's town council has offered to allow us to operate for
the first three years without paying city taxes."
为节约成本，我们应该关闭一些现有的小型组装车间而建设一个大型核心厂房。Grandview可能是这个新厂房建设
的理想位置。首先，在我们所考虑过的地区中，Grandview拥有最大的成年人口，因此我们可以很快很轻易地招收
到工作人员。其次，由于Grandview工人的平均收入比其他地区低，我们能够把生产成本压低。最后，我们在那里
建厂的诱因之一就是Grandview的市委允许我们运营的头三年可以免付城市税。

1 因果关系错----没有证据表明 成年人口多 能容易招收工作人员。能不能找到新成员的因素有很多：有多少是要找
工作的，岗位是当地人熟悉并愿意从事的吗，能提供的薪水吸引人吗，。。。

2 影响成本的因素很多，仅仅凭当地的。。。低 ，不能下次结论: 除了人力成本外还有 地租，工人效率，水电，
税收，等等

3 头三年免付税，无法有利于为G长远的节约成本，获利：可能当地的税超级高，远远多于其他类似地区，即使，
前三年免税，而从以后交的多，总数还是不合适；而且当地只说前三年免，没提以后是否有优惠，如果没有优惠
反而要增加的话，也不合适

25.The following appeared in a memo from the mayor of the town of Hopewell.
"Two years ago, the town of Ocean View built a new municipal golf course and resort hotel. During the past two years,
tourism in Ocean View has increased, new businesses have opened there, and Ocean View's tax revenues have risen
by 30 percent. The best way to improve Hopewell's economy, and generate additional tax revenues, is to build a golf
course and resort hotel similar to those in Ocean View."
两年前Ocean View建造了一个新的市立高尔夫球场和度假旅馆。过去两年中，Ocean View的旅客增加了，开设了
很多新的商业，而且税收增加了30％。改Hopewell的经济，产生更多税收的最好途径就是建立一个和Ocean View
类似的高尔夫球场和度假旅馆。

1 the arguer does not provide any information about how the golf course and resort hotel contribute to the O‘s
economy development.  the mere facts that tourism's increase , more businesses and tax revenues' rise are not
sufficient to be responsible to the economy. it is entirely possible that

2 即使 1.。。，但O and H  may be not comparable。  很有可能这些措施只是用于O而不适用于H： 也许 O是休闲
胜地，但H不是，则发展。。。不好，或者O的地理位置上比H更便利，生活水平更低那么开设新的商业其成本也
会较低，但H。。。， 那么，。。。

3  即使说2， 但作者也没有证明 这两个措施在以后仍然会起作用。未来的可变性大，。。。


26.The following appeared in a memo from the chairperson of the school board in the town of Saluda.
"For the past five years, Mr. Charles Schade has been the music director at Steel City High School, and during that
time the school band from Steel City High has won three regional band competitions. In addition, the quality of the
music rehearsal facilities and musical instruments at Steel City High has improved markedly over the past five years.
Because of such successes at Steel City High, the Saluda school board should hire Mr. Schade to plan and direct the
general music education programs for the entire Saluda school system."
过去五年中，Charles Schade担任了Steel City高中的音乐教学主任，在那期间学校乐队在三次地区乐队比赛中获
胜。而且，Steel City高中的音乐排练设备和乐器在过去五年中明显得到改。由于Steel City高中所获得的这些成，
Saluda学校委员会应该雇佣Mr.Schade来为整个Saluda学校系统规划和指导总体音乐教育计划

1 a direct correction between Mr...as the music director and SCH' s ... does not necessarily prove that the former
causes the latter.

2 没有说得到改善是CS的功劳

3 出现 以少推多的错误 S不见得有能力。。。没有信息表明

27.The following appeared as part of a memo from the president of Automate, a company that manufactures
automobiles.
"It has come to my attention that Sparks, Inc., the manufacturing company that just moved into our state, is advertising
job openings at salaries that are twice as high as those paid to our experienced assembly-line workers. Some of our
employees have already left to work for Sparks. In order to keep our best staff, we must pay them salaries equal to
those Sparks pays its employees. Otherwise we will continue to lose employees in the future, because Sparks must
staff the additional new plants that it plans to build in the state."
我注意到刚刚搬到本州的制造公司Sparks, Inc.正在登广告提供比我们公司生产线的熟练工人薪水高一倍的工作岗
位。我们的有些员工已经离开公司到Sparks就职。为留住我们最好的员工，我们必须付给他们与Sparks付给其员
工相同的薪水。否则我们在未来将继续流失员工，因为Sparks必须为他们在本州新建的工厂招募工人。

1 没证据表明员工离开时因为S薪水高。可能是因为福利啊，交通啊，工作环境啊等等。。。

2即使是因为工资的问题，也没有证据说明离开的是最好的员工，A最好的员工当然待遇很好，工资很高他们挖走
的可能只是低级别的工人

3 忽略了其他员工流失的因素

8.The following is a memo from the superintendent of the Mylar school district.
"A recent six-month study, in which breakfast was made available at school for 100 schoolchildren ages five to twelve,
found that children on the breakfast plan were less likely than other children to be absent from or late for school.
Clearly, eating breakfast before school plays a role in reducing student absenteeism and tardiness. It is also well
known that children who regularly eat a healthful breakfast tend to perform better in school. Therefore, in order to
reduce absenteeism and tardiness and to improve academic performance in all of Mylar's elementary and secondary
schools, we should provide breakfasts for all students before each school day."
在一项最近的为期6个月的研究中，我们为100名5至12岁的小学生在学校提供早餐；研究发现参加早餐计划的儿
童比其他儿童更不容易缺席或迟到。显然，上学前吃早餐对于减少学生的缺席和迟到作用很大。而且众所周知经
常吃健康早餐的儿童一般在学校的表现也更好。因此，为减少缺席和迟到以及提高Mylar所有小学和初中的学习成
绩，我们应该在每天上课前为所有学生提供早餐。
1A direct correlation between eating breakfast and reducing student absenteeism and tardiness. 他因法

2 study是够权威？ 是够具有代表性
3




29.When Ida McAllister ran for mayor of Lake City four years ago, she failed to win even 30 percent of the vote. But
since then, McAllister has made public her commitment to environmental causes. She would be wise, therefore, to
announce her intention to close all Lake City parks to automobile traffic, thus following the example of the former mayor
of Plainsville, Alecia Yu . On the recommendation of a small group of concerned citizens, Mayor Yu prohibited
automobile traffic in all Plainsville parks, and therefore was credited with solving the pollution problem and improving
the quality of life in Plainsville. This action would have great appeal to the citizens of Lake City, most of whom
participate in the community's recycling program, and would guarantee McAllister's success in her current quest to be
Lake City's new mayor.
当Ida McAllister在四年前竞选Lake City市的市长的时候，她失败了，甚至未能赢得30％的选票。但从那以后，
McAllister公开了她对环境事业的支持。因而，如果她宣布她将会让Lake City所有公园禁止汽车通行的话将会是十
分明智的，这里有Plainsville前市长Alecia Yu的先例。在一小群关注该问题的市的建议下，Yu市长在Plainsville的所
有公园都禁止汽车通行，因而被称赞为解决了Plainsville的污染问题和提高了生活质量。这一行动对于Lake City的
市将会有极大吸引力，这些市大部分参加了社区循环再生项目，也会保证McAllister在这次市长竞选中获得成。

1  作者没有提供信息说明为什么McAllister在上次的选举中失败了，他可能有别的缺点，而不是不支持环保
2  没有足够的证据证明在前市长Alecia Yu的成功也能够在McAllister上再次成功
3  作者没有考虑是否还有更好的方法让McAllister当选


30.According to information recently reported in the Eliottown Gazette, the number of people who travel to Eliottown
has increased significantly over the past several years. So far this year over 100,000 people have arrived on flights to
Eliottown's airport, compared with only 80,000 last year and 40,000 the year before. Eliottown's train station has
received more than 50,000 passengers this year, compared with less than 40,000 last year and 20,000 the year
before. Clearly tourism in Eliottown has been increasing, thanks to the new Central Park and Museum of Modern Art
that opened last year. Therefore, the funding for the park and museum should be increased significantly.
根据Eliottown Gazette最近报道的信息，到Eliottown旅游的人数在过去几年中显著增加。今年到现在为止，乘飞机
抵达Eliottown机场的人数已经超过了100000人，而去年和前年则分别只有80000和40000人。Eliottown的火车站今
年接待了超过50000名乘客，而去年和前年则分别为不到40000和20000。显然Eliottown的游客数量增加了，这要
感谢去年开放的新的Central Park和Museum of Modern Art。因此，拨给这个公园和博物馆的基金应该大幅增加。

1 the auther fails to show how the C and M contribure to the tourism in E
2 没有证据表明 增加的人是来旅游的
3 作者忽略了其他帮E游客数增加的原因