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发表于 2009-6-11 00:37:44
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TOPIC: ARGUMENT65 - The following appeared in a memo from the presidentof a chain of cheese stores located throughout the United States.
"For many years all the stores in our chain have stocked a wide varietyof both domestic and imported cheeses. Last year, however, the fivebest-selling cheeses at our newest store were all domestic cheddarcheeses from Wisconsin. Furthermore, a recent survey by Cheeses of theWorld magazine indicates an increasing preference for domestic cheesesamong its subscribers. Since our company can reduce expenses bylimiting inventory, the best way to improve profits in all of ourstores is to discontinue stocking many of our varieties of importedcheese and concentrate primarily on domestic cheeses."
WORDS: 552 DATE: 2009-6-10
1、仅仅一家新开的店铺的一种domestic cheeses的销量好并不能说明所有的domesticcheese在全国范围内都很受欢迎。不知道其他的domesticcheeses是否受欢迎,也有可能新店开在Wisconsin州,而那里的人比较喜欢本地奶酪的味道。
2、调查的结果也不能说明domestic cheeses受欢迎,因为不知道调查样本的数量及参与调查的人住的地方。
3、如果说domestic cheeses并不一定比imported受欢迎,那么减少imported cheeses会减少成本并增加收益的假设就不成立。
With the fact that the five best-selling cheeses at their newest storewere all domestic cheeses last year and a survey by Cheeses of theWorld magazine, the author concludes that domestic cheeses are morepopular among consumers. Then, based on this conclusion, together withthe assumption that less inventory of imported cheeses can help reduceexpenses and improve profits, the author suggests that stocking lessimported cheeses and concentrating primarily on domestic cheeses wouldbe the best way to improve profits in all of their stores. However,when scrutinizing the whole reasoning line, I find that the suggestionis unconvincing for the following reasons.
First of all, the domestic cheeses from Wisconsin sold well in thenewest store cannot prove that all the domestic cheeses are popularthroughout the whole country. Since Wisconsin's cheeses is only onekind domestic cheeses, we do not know whether other kinds of domesticcheeses also sold well last year. Therefore, we can hardly believe thatall kinds of domestic cheeses are popular among people. What's more,living in different areas, people may prefer different taste. Maybe thenewest store is located in Wisconsin, and consumers in that area areused to the taste of domestic cheddar cheeses, so that most of themchoose to purchase the familiar kind of cheeses. But people in otherstates may even not know the Wisconsin's cheddar cheeses or they maynot like the taste of those cheeses. If this is the case, stores inother places could not gain the same success with selling domesticcheddar cheeses from Wisconsin.
The result of the survey cannot ensure the popularity of domesticcheeses as well. No information is given to show us the size of thesurvey and the identities of responders. If only few people had takenpart in the survey, the result is not reliable at all. Also, what ifthe responders were consumers in a certain area? Then their opinionsmight be different from those in other areas. Thus, the result couldnot be an evidence to support the author's suggestion, for the chain ofcheese stores are located throughout the United States.
As the author cannot prove the imported cheese do not sell so well asthe domestic cheeses do, we could not predict the result of cuttingdown the inventory of the imported ones. Thus,the assumption that lessinventory of imported cheeses equals to less expenses and more profitsis unreasonable. Maybe imported cheeses are selling well in most areasthroughout the United State and one kilogram of imported cheeses ismuch more profitable than the same amount of domestic cheeses. Thentaking the author's suggestion, the stores will lose a good way to gainprofits.
In sum, the author make a suggestion to help improve the cheese stores'profits but his fails to offer some sufficient evidence. To convince usof his suggestion's efficiency, he need to provide more informationabout the sales of all kinds of domestic cheeses in other stores ratherthan only the newest one and more details about the survey. Only whenthese evidence are proved to be reliable, can we accept the author'sassumption about the relationship between less invention of importedcheeses and more profits, and thus regard his suggestion as anappropriate way to gain profits. |
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