Argument207 =August Rush=小组第1次作业 by 尾羽

尾羽UID: 2482591

207.It is known that in recent years,industrial pollution has caused the Earth's ozone layer to thin,allowing an increase in the amount of ultraviolet radation that reaches the Earth's surface.At the same time,scientists have discovered,the population of a species of salamander that lays its eggs in mountain lakes has declined.Since ultraviolet radation is known to be damaging to delicate tissues and since salamander eggs have no pretective shells,it must be the case that the increase in ultraviolet radation has damaged many salamander eggs and prevented them from hatching.This process will no doubt cause population declines in other species,just as it has in the salamander species.

分析：
一、原因：工业污染使得臭氧层变薄，更多的紫外线辐射到地球表面
二、论证:
    1.臭氧层变薄的同时，科学家发现在山区的湖里产卵的蝾螈数量下降。
    2.紫外线对生物组织有害、蝾螈的卵没有保护层
    3.紫外线阻止了蝾螈卵的孵化
三、结论：其他物种也会像被调查蝾螈那样，数量下降。

提纲：
1.臭氧层变薄和蝾螈数量下降可能是时间上的巧合，下降有其他原因
（1）湖水受污染
（2）气候变化，山区的湖泊不再适合繁殖
2.蝾螈卵无法孵化也不一定是紫外线造成的、跟蝾螈卵没有保护层也可能无关，也许有其他原因
（1）天敌多了
（2）气候变化，温度湿度达不到孵化的要求
3.没有理由得出，被调查的蝾螈数量的下降在所有蝾螈种类的繁殖数量情况中具有代表性，更不可能得出所有物种的数量都会下降的结论。

尾羽UID: 2482591

正文：word：436；time：2h

In this argument, the author concludes that the population of other species will decline, just as the process has occured in the salamander species due to an increase of ultraviolet radiation caused by the escalating industrial pollution and a thinner Earth's ozone layer in recent years.To support this conclusion it cites a study showing that the scientists have discovered, the population of a species of salamander has decreased which lays its eggs in moutain lakes. The author also points out that inasmuch as baby salalmanders in eggs are fragile without protective shells,they would be killed by the increase in ultraviolet radiation that it damages tissues declicated.In several respects,however, the evidence lends little credible support for the argument.

First of all,the fact scientists found that the population of salamander which lays eggs in mountain lakes has decreased, in itself,lends no support to the argument.Perhaps the mountain lakes was contaminated in where salamanders lays eggs;or perhaps the ecological environment has been unsuitable for propagation of salamanders,because the climate in the area of mountain lakes has varied dramaticlly.Lacking dearer evidence that the increase in ultraviolet radiation was then used to decrease the amount of salamander,the author cannot expect us to take the claim seriously.

Similarly,the fact that the increase in ultraviolet radiation results in that salamander eggs was pevented from hatching with no protective shells lends no support to the argument.Perhaps the amount of natural enemies to salamander is larger causing a fact that the salamanders in eggs was eaten before they hatched.Or perhaps the climate has changed either that the humidity and the temperature fails to reach the level that salamanders'hatching requires.Without considering and ruling out these and other possible expalations for distiction cited,the author cannot justfiably conclude that the increase in ultraviolet radiation was responsible for the impediment of salamander eggs'hatch what without protective shells.

finally,the author jumps to the conclusion that the process that just as it has in the salamander species will cause population declines undoubtedly.In this argument,the author only mentions the amount of a species of salamander which lays eggs in mountain lakes has reduced and none information of other species of salamander nor other species living creature.No evidence is presented that indicates that this kind of salamander has a representative role in all species-some weak and ambiguous information is merely thrown into the argument.

In sum,the author has done nothing no more than state an opinion with some persuasive and well reasoned information included that proves nothing.Without providing direct evidence that other species' population has declined more than helped by the increase in ultraviolet radiation,the author's argument is unconvincing and should be rejected.

lela900UID: 2634833

改好了~

crepuscularlywUID: 2645654

改好了一篇，先发上来~