Argument207 =August Rush=小组第1次作业 by crepuscularlyw

crepuscularlywUID: 2645654

ARGUMENT 207

Outline：
1.
某种Salamander数量的减少与紫外线到达地球表面是同时发生的，但是不代表它们就一定有因果关系，只是时间上的联系而已。Salamander的数量可能与其它因素有关，例如某种吃Salamander的物种入侵，或是Salamander的食物减少或是其生存条件恶化等，而且Salamander 只是减少在山中的湖泊产卵，可能湖泊被污染了，它们另寻别处产卵了？
2.
就算是紫外线引起的Salamander数量的减少，也不能说明紫外线会造成其它物种数量的降低，正如Arguer所提到的Salamander eggs没有保护壳易受紫外线的影响，而其它物种不一定，而且它们的生殖繁衍方式不尽相同。
3.
不排除此种Salamander鱼的产卵数减少而其它种产卵数增多。

crepuscularlywUID: 2645654

正文：
我写的第一篇Argument，用时将近两个小时，先发上来再说。

In this argument, the arguer concludes that the increase in the amount of ultraviolet radiation is responsible for the declination of the salamander's population. Furthermore, the arguer is sure that, just like salamanders, other species will also stuck in the population declination. To justify his conclusion, the arguer cites the fact that ultra violet radiation is known to be damaging to delicate tissues like salamander eggs since salamander eggs have no protective shells. A careful examination of the argument would reveal how groundless the conclusion is.

In the first place, the increase of ultra violet radiation and the declination of the population of a species of salamander occurs at the same time doesn't mean that they have a causal relationship. Maybe this is just a correlation of time. It is possible that the declination of salamander have something to do with the invasion of other new species, the shortage of food and the exacerbation of salamander's living thing which is mentioned in this argument is that, the species of salamander lays its eggs in mountain lakes. So, what if the lake is polluted? Maybe salamander finds another place to lay its eggs. Without ruling out such possibilities, the arguer cannot justify his conclusion that the increase in the amount of ultraviolet radiation is responsible for the declination of salamander population.

In the second place, even if the increase in the amount of ultra violet radiation causes the declination of salamander's population. This alone cannot expound the conclusion that other species' population will also decline. As the arguer mentioned in the argument, salamander's eggs have no protective shells, so it is likely that ultra violet has damaged their eggs. But this may not be true for other species since each species has its own way of reproducing and its own structure of eggs. The arguer is too assertive to make the conclusion that just like salamanders, other species will also stuck in the population declination.

In the third place, it is likely that the number of the eggs of other salamander species rises while the number of eggs of this salamander species declines. We still can’t exclude this possibility if the arguer can’t provide any statistics of the number of other salamander species’ eggs.

As it stands, the argument is not well reason. To make it logically acceptable, the arguer must present evidence that all the species of salamander’s population go down because of the ultra violet radiation and all species’ eggs have no protective shells. Additionally, the arguer must provide evidence to rule out other possible causes of the salamander species’ declination.

lela900UID: 2634833

改好了~

尾羽UID: 2482591

Outline：
1.
某种Salamander数量的减少与紫外线到达地球表面是同时发生的（不一定是同时发生的，只是被科学家发现的时间比较近。有可能科学家没发现数量下降之前，数量也是在下降的），但是不代表它们就一定有因果关系，只是时间上的联系而已。Salamander的数量可能与其它因素有关，例如某种吃Salamander的物种入侵，或是Salamander的食物减少或是其生存条件恶化等，而且Salamander 只是减少在山中的湖泊产卵，可能湖泊被污染了，它们另寻别处产卵了？
2.
就算是紫外线引起的Salamander数量的减少，也不能说明紫外线会造成其它物种数量的降低，正如Arguer所提到的Salamander eggs没有保护壳易受紫外线的影响，而其它物种不一定，而且它们的生殖繁衍方式不尽相同。
3.
不排除此种Salamander鱼（蝾螈）的产卵数减少而其它种产卵数增多

In this argument, the arguer concludes that the increase in the amount of ultraviolet radiation is responsible for the declination of the salamander's population. Furthermore, the arguer is sure that, just like salamanders, other species will(加“be”)also stuck in the population declination. To justify his conclusion, the arguer cites the fact that ultra violet radiation is known to be damaging to delicate tissues like salamander eggs since salamander eggs have no protective shells. A careful examination of the argument would reveal how groundless the conclusion is.

In the first place, the increase of ultra violet radiation and the declination of the population of a species of salamander occurs at the same time doesn't mean that they have a causal relationship(对应到提纲第一点的问题，紫外线可以是occured,数量下降应该是discovered). Maybe this is just a correlation of time. It is possible that the declination of salamander have something to do with the invasion of other new species, the shortage of food and the exacerbation(好词) of salamander's living thing which is mentioned in this argument is that, the species of salamander lays its eggs in mountain lakes. So, what if the lake is polluted? Maybe salamander finds another place to lay its eggs. Without ruling out such possibilities, the arguer cannot justify his conclusion that the increase in the amount of ultraviolet radiation is responsible for the declination of salamander population.

In the second place, even if the increase in the amount of ultra violet radiation causes the declination of salamander's population. This alone cannot expound the conclusion that other species' population will also decline. As the arguer mentioned in the argument, salamander's eggs have no protective shells, so it is likely that ultra violet has damaged their eggs. But this may not be true for other species since each species has its own way of reproducing and its own structure of eggs. The arguer is too assertive to make the conclusion that just like salamanders, other species will also stuck in the population declination.

In the third place, it is likely that the number of the eggs of other salamander species rises while the number of eggs of this salamander species declines. We still can’t exclude this possibility if the arguer can’t provide any statistics of the number of other salamander species’ eggs.

As it stands, the argument is not well reason(well-reasoned). To make it logically acceptable, the arguer must present evidence that all the species of salamander’s population go down because of the ultra violet radiation and all species’ eggs have no protective shells. Additionally, the arguer must provide evidence to rule out other possible causes of the salamander species’ declination.

除了那个“同时发生”的小问题（欢迎讨论，也许是我有些钻牛角），没什么好说的~提纲列的很清楚，行文也很明了