Argument 207=August Rush=小组第1次作业 by lela900

lela900UID: 2634833

题目：ARGUMENT207 - It is known that in recent years, industrial pollution has caused the Earth's ozone layer to thin, allowing an increase in the amount of ultraviolet radiation that reaches the Earth's surface. At the same time, scientists have discovered, the population of a species of salamander that lays its eggs in mountain lakes has declined. Since ultraviolet radiation is known to be damaging to delicate tissues and since salamander eggs have no protective shells, it must be the case that the increase in ultraviolet radiation has damaged many salamander eggs and prevented them from hatching. This process will no doubt cause population declines in other species, just as it has in the salamander species.

我们知道近年来工业污染导致地球臭氧层变薄，使到达地球表面的紫外线辐射增加。同时，学者发现在山区湖泊产卵的某种蜥蜴的数量下降了。由于紫外线辐射能够破坏脆弱的组织并且蜥蜴的卵没有保护壳，因此一定是紫外线辐射的增加破坏了很多蜥蜴的卵并阻止它们孵化。这一过程无疑也会导致其他物种数量的下降，就像发生在这种蜥蜴身上的一样。


论点：1。紫外线会破坏salamander产卵
           2．紫外线也会引起其他物种下降

论据：1。紫外线数量上升
           2。蜥蜴数量下降
           3．紫外线容易破坏纤细组织而蜥蜴卵是没有保护外壳的

提纲：1。错误因果：没有证据表明紫外线会破坏蜥蜴产卵，并不能从蜥蜴外壳无保护而推断出是有可能破坏纤细组织的紫外线所为。很可能是因为其他环境因素导致。
           2．错误类比：就算1成立，但蜥蜴下降并不能推出其他物种也下降。其他物种有可能受紫外线影响较小，而且卵不一定如蜥蜴一样无外壳。
           3．在山区湖泊区产卵的蜥蜴样本能代表其余所有蜥蜴吗？值得探究。

lela900UID: 2634833

In this argument, the author attempts to make us convinced that the population of other species will decline just because of the influence of more ultraviolet radiation on a species of salamander. To support it, he cites two facts that one is the amount of ultraviolet radiation recently increase and the other one is the salamander eggs have no protective shells. However, a close examination of this argument would reveal how groundless the conclusion is.

Firstly, the author falsely establishes the causal relationship between the fact ultraviolet radiations can damage to animals' delicate tissues and the assumption the ray will prevent salamander eggs from hatching. Though the salamander eggs have no protective shells, there is no sufficient evidence to show that the ultraviolet radiation may cause the decline of salamander population. There may be other environmental factors, such as the water contamination to the mountain and the utility of pesticide which could have caused the change of the salamanders population. So the author cannot draw the firm conclusion without a detailed study about the cause of the salamander population decreasing.

Secondly, even if assuming ultraviolet radiation can affect the number of the salamander, the author still cannot infer that other species are related to a population decline as a result. Common sense tells us not all animals' eggs have suffered from ultraviolet radiation. Neither does all their eggs have unprotected shells. Therefore, depending on tremendous differences between salamander and other species, the author commits a deadly mistake of "false analogy".

Finally, the fact that the number of salamander eggs in mountain lakes is declining does not necessarily indicate the whole species population is declining. The representative of the selected samples is doubtful. Maybe the salamanders which live in the forest or near the sea can put up with the ultraviolet radiation due to the higher temperature or the milder climate. So before a large-scale study over the whole habitats of salamander, the conclusion is invalid and misleading.

To sum up, the conclusion is not persuasive as it stands. To better bolster it, the author should prove the causal relationship between the increasing amounts of ultraviolet radiation and the decreasing population of salamander, as well as the necessary to survey various species from different habitats.

crepuscularlywUID: 2645654

改好了一篇，先发上来~

尾羽UID: 2482591

In this argument, the author attempts to make us convinced that the population of other species will decline just because of the influence of more ultraviolet radiation on a species of salamander. To support it, he cites two facts that one is the amount of ultraviolet radiation recently increase and the other one（去掉这个one） is the salamander eggs have no protective shells. However, a close（请教，这close解释为“有关的”？） examination of this argument would reveal how groundless the conclusion is.

Firstly, the author falsely establishes the causal relationship between the fact ultraviolet radiations can damage to animals' delicate tissues and the assumption the ray will prevent salamander eggs from hatching. Though the salamander eggs have no protective shells, there is no sufficient evidence to show that the ultraviolet radiation may cause the decline of salamander population. There may be other environmental factors, such as the water contamination to the mountain and the utility of pesticide which could have caused the change of the salamanders population. So the author cannot draw the firm conclusion without a detailed study about the cause of the salamander population('s) decreasing.

Secondly, even if assuming ultraviolet radiation can affect the number of the salamander, the author still cannot infer that other species are related to a population decline as a result. Common sense tells us not all animals' eggs have suffered from ultraviolet radiation. Neither does all their eggs have unprotected shells. Therefore, depending on tremendous differences between salamander and other species, the author commits a deadly mistake of "false analogy"(好句).

Finally, the fact that the number of salamander eggs in mountain lakes is declining does not necessarily indicate the whole species population is declining. The representative of the selected samples is doubtful. Maybe the salamanders which live in the forest or near the sea can put up（"put up"在这里什么意思？数量增加？） with the ultraviolet radiation due to the higher temperature or the milder climate. So before a large-scale study over the whole habitats of salamander, the conclusion is invalid and misleading（好句）.

To sum up, the conclusion is not persuasive as it stands. To better bolster it, the author should prove the causal relationship between the increasing amounts of ultraviolet radiation and the decreasing population of salamander, as well as the necessary to survey various species from different habitats.

我看不出问题了~~~~~(>_<)~~~~ ，感觉自己很烂