Argument提纲 =So What=小组第4次作业 by fengrui129

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41. The following appeared in a memo from the vice president of a food-distribution company with food-storage warehouses in several cities.

"Recently we signed a contract with The Fly-Away Pest-Control Company to provide pest-control services at our fast-food warehouse in Palm City, but last month we discovered that over $20,000 worth of food there had been destroyed by pest damage. Meanwhile, the Buzzoff Pest-Control Company, which we have used for many years, continued to service our warehouse in Wintervale, and last month only $10,000 worth of the food stored there had been destroyed by pest damage. Even though the price charged by Fly-Away is considerably lower, our best means of saving money is to return to Buzzoff Company for all our pest-control services."
1. 上个月的虫灾不一定与Fly-Away Pest-Control Company的pest-control services有关，有可能上个月正是虫子的繁殖季节，很多虫子的降临自然导致了灾害。又有可能是人为原因，这个月中仓库管理员疏于职守，对于刚刚开始的虫灾不重视
，导致了虫子泛滥。
2 数据含糊。真的Buzzoff就比Fly-Away有效么？w ,last month only $10,000 损失而P over $20,000。

但从损失数目来比较是不合理的。也许p库存是100000,少了20000 ，只损失了20%，而B的库存是400000，少了20000，是损失了50%，损失其实比P大得多，再说了，食物的价值和食物的数量没有必然关系。
3 。就算真的Buzzoff就比Fly-Away有效，
作者犯了错误类比，the Buzzoff Pest-Control Company ，, W地与Palm City,有很多不同，例如气候地理，当地虫子的特征，人们对虫子的重视程度。
4 最好的方式是用以前的方式么？重新使用B公司不一定省钱，它收费贵，减少的损失费还不足以弥补两公司的差价，且服务质量不一定最好，就算比F好，也不易定比其他公司好，选择的范围太窄。

42. The following appeared in a proposal from the economic minister of the country of Paraterra.

"In order to strengthen its lagging economy, last year the government of the nearby country of Bellegea began an advertising campaign to promote ecologically sound tourism (ecotourism). This year the number of foreign visitors arriving at Bellegea's main airport doubled, and per capita income in Bellegea increased by ten percent. To provide more income for the population of Paraterra and also preserve the natural environment of
our tiny country, we too should begin to promote ecotourism. To ensure that our advertising campaign is successful, we should hire the current director of Bellegea's National Tourism Office as a consultant for the campaign."
1因果联系错误，B的旅游业的兴起，不一定是由广告公司推广引起的，更有可能是B地自身经济的腾飞，旅游设施的完善，绿化条件的改进等诸多因素work together 引起。
2 经济的发展可能由其它原因产生
3.错误类比，P和B有很多不同，在B推广生态旅游不一定在P合适，地理位置，交通状况，消费水平，人文环境。
4．生态旅游发达了，不一定能提高居民收入。可能现在环境很差，需要的投入很大。
5一定要请旅游局主任吗？他起了多大作用。而且不一定了解当地情况。
43. The following appeared as part of a business plan developed by the manager of the Rialto Theater.

"Despite its downtown location, the Rialto Movie Theater, a local institution for five decades, must make big changes or close its doors forever. It should follow the example of the new Apex Theater in the mall outside of town. When the Apex opened last year, it featured a video arcade, plush carpeting and seats, and a state-of-the-art sound system.
Furthermore, in a recent survey, over 85 percent of respondents reported that the high price of newly released movies prevents them from going to the movies more than five times per year. Thus, if the Rialto intends to hold on to its share of a decreasing pool of moviegoers, it must offer the same features as Apex."

1 R一定要学习A么，两者有可比性么？地理位置不同，A可能因为位置偏远只能靠改善各种设备来吸引顾客，而R地处闹市，也许根本不需要去改进。
2 survey 可靠么？没具体数据也没百分比，没用。也许调查基础很小，85%也不能说明问题。调查对象的反馈一定可靠么？
3 要吸引顾客只能采取和A一样的方式么？也许增加各种措施，反而增加了R 的财政负担，得不偿失。


44. The following is a recommendation from the business manager of Monarch Book s.

"Monarch Books should open a cafè in its store to attract more customers and better compete with Regal Books, which recently opened a cafè. Monarch, which has been in business at the same location for more than twenty years, has a large customer following because it is known for its wide selection of books on all subjects. Opening the cafè would clearly attract more customers. The cafè would require relatively little space. Space could be made for the cafè by discontinuing the children's book section, which will likely become less popular given that the last national census indicated a significant decline in the percent of the population who are under age ten."

1 开咖啡厅一定会吸引更多的观众么？人们选择书店的主要原因是买书。书的种类是关键。
2
M和G有可比性么，
2 开在儿童区域是明智的选择么？全国10岁儿童减少，不代表当地减少，就算当地减少，也不代表没有市场了。而且儿童书籍不一定只有10岁以下的儿童才会看。


45 写过了


46 Although black bears are common in the eastern Canadian province of Labrador, grizzly bears-often similar in color, but much larger-were believed to exist only in the western provinces. Despite a nineteenth-century explorer's account of having startled and narrowly escaped from a grizzly bear deep in the woods in Labrador, modern scientists find no physical evidence that grizzly bears have ever lived in Labrador. But recent research into the language and legends of the Innu, a people who have lived in Labrador for thousands of years, reveals that their language has words for two different kinds of bears, and their ancient legends attribute different characteristics to the two kinds of bears. Therefore, there probably were grizzly bears in Labrador, and the explorer's account probably accurately identified the bear.

尽管黑熊在加拿大东部的Labrador省份很常见，那种与黑熊颜色类似，但要大的多的灰熊被认为只存在于西部的省份。尽管存在一名19世纪的探险者在Labrador丛林深处遭遇一头灰熊并惊险地逃脱的记载，现代学者并没有发现灰熊曾在Labrador生活的证据。但最近对于已在Labrador生活了数千年的Innu人的语言和传说的研究发现，他们的语言中对于两种不同的熊有不同的词汇，他们的古老传说中确认了两种熊的特征。因此，Labrador可能曾有过灰熊，探险者的记载有可能精确地记叙了熊的存在。

1．
语言中两种熊一定包括G吗？可能是其他的熊。

2调查的可信性，人们的描述有无科学性，其次，这些人的祖先是否以前在西部住过，这样的词和传说在来东部之前就有了，第三，这些描述可能就仅仅是人们的想象。
3就算L可能有G熊，不代表19世纪的时候也有，当时的旅游者可能受到惊吓，判断不准确。

47. Scientists studying historical weather patterns have discovered that in the mid-sixth century, Earth suddenly became significantly cooler. Although few historical records survive from that time, some accounts found both in Asia and Europe mention a dimming of the sun and extremely cold temperatures. Either a huge volcanic eruption or a large meteorite colliding with Earth could have created a large dust cloud throughout Earth's atmosphere that would have been capable of blocking enough sunlight to lower global temperatures significantly. A large meteorite collision, however, would probably create a sudden bright flash of light, and no extant historical records of the time mention such a flash. Some surviving Asian historical records of the time, however, mention a loud boom that would be consistent with a volcanic eruption. Therefore, the cooling was probably caused by a volcanic eruption.


研究历史上气候变化的学者发现在六世纪中叶，地球突然变冷了很多。尽管那个时期很少有历史记录被保存下来，一些在亚洲和欧洲所发现的记录提到了太阳变暗和极度的寒冷。要么是巨大的火山喷发，要么是撞击地球的大型小行星导致地球大气形成一大片尘埃云层，这阻止了一定的阳光导致全球温度显著下降。然而，大型小行星的撞击可能产生突然的强闪光，而现存的那时的历史记录中没有提到过这样的闪光。然而那时遗留下来的一些亚洲历史纪录提到过与一次火山喷发相一致的巨大隆隆声。因此，那时的温度下降多半是火山喷发导致的。

1．
没有强闪光的证据不代表没有强闪光。那时可能没有文字，不是所有的人都看得到，可能记录已经被破坏或遗失。
2．
有隆隆声不代表就是火山喷发。就算是，也没有提供时间数据表明天气在那个时候下降的，如果气温在此之前就下降了，就与火山喷发没有关系。就算时间顺序一致，也不能说明之间有因果关系。
3．
除了这两种原因外，没有说明有无其他的可能性。


48. The following appeared in a newspaper article published in the country of Corpora.

"Twenty years ago, one half of all citizens in Corpora met the standards for adequate physical fitness as then defined by the national advisory board on physical fitness. Today, the board says that only one quarter of all citizens are adequately fit and suggests that spending too much time using computers may be the reason. But since overall fitness levels are highest in regions of Corpora where levels of computer ownership are also highest, it is clear that using computers has not made citizens less physically fit. Instead, as shown by this year's unusually low expenditures on fitness-related products and services, the recent decline in the economy is most likely the cause, and fitness levels will improve when the economy does."

20年前，Corpora的市民有一半都达到了那时由国家健身顾问委员会所定义的充分的健康标准。今天，委员会指出所有市民只有四分之一的市民足够健康，并指出长时间的使用电脑可能是原因。但是由于在Corpora电脑拥有量最高的地区也是总体健康水平最高的地区，显然使用电脑并没有导致市民体质的下降。相反，今年用于健身产品和服务的花费低的异乎寻常，这表明最近经济的衰退最可能是原因，当经济复苏了健康水平也会随之提高。



1. 20年前的健康标准能适用于今天么？生活水平发生了翻天覆地的变化，
2．
电脑拥有量多不一定使用时间长，就算使用时间长，和健康有无关系也不一定。可能有一定影响只是被其他因素抵消了。
3用于健身产品和服务的花费低的异乎寻常，可能是人们工作学习忙没时间，不想锻炼。
经济条件好了，人们不一定就要把钱花在健身方面，没有证据表明现在的花费低时因为经济不景气。


49. The following appeared in a letter to the editor of a newsletter on health issues.

"For the past decade, most health experts have advised teenagers to avoid eating greasy foods in order to prevent acne and related skin conditions, but the number of teenagers who sought medical help for these skin problems has actually risen over the same period. In a recent study, teenagers who avoided greasy foods for a month reported approximately as many outbreaks of acne and related skin conditions as did those who ate an average of two servings of greasy food per day. Such data indicate that eating greasy foods is unlikely to be a cause of acne and related skin conditions. Therefore, health experts should no longer recommend that people avoid such foods."
1. 过去十年寻求医疗帮助的人可能正是因为没有采乃专家的建议。而且人口总数在增加，可能发病率实际是在减少的。

2. 调查的可信度，无数据无百分比，调查对象也有问题，也许选的那些人都天生容易生acne，
而那些吃油腻食物的人也许不太容易生
3.结论武断，油腻食物可能还有其他不好的作用：肥胖，心脏病等。



50. From a draft textbook manuscript submitted to a publisher.

"As Earth was being formed out of the collision of space rocks, the heat from those collisions and from the increasing gravitational energy of the planet made the entire planet molten, even the surface. Any water present would have evaporated and gone off into space. As the planet approached its current size, however, its gravitation became strong enough to hold gases and water vapor around it as an atmosphere. Because comets are largely ice made up of frozen water and gases, a comet striking Earth then would have vaporized. The resulting water vapor would have been retained in the atmosphere, eventually falling as rain on the cooled and solidified surface of Earth. Therefore, the water in Earth's oceans must have originated from comets."

当地球在太空岩石的撞击作用下形成的时候，撞击产生的热量和行星越来越大的重力能量使整个行星融化，甚至包括表面。当时存在的任何水分都会蒸发并消失在太空。然而，当行星接近现在的大小的时候，它的重力强到了足以保持其周围的气体和水蒸气来形成大气层。由于彗星主要是由冻结的水和气体组成的冰，撞击地球的彗星将会蒸发。产生的水蒸气将被留在大气层，最终以降雨的形式落在地球已冷却而且坚硬的表面。因此，地球海洋的水分一定是来自彗星。



1．没有证据表明水被蒸发后消失在太空，也许变成其它形式留了下来
2. 彗星撞地球发生的事件可能是在重力不足以保持气体和水蒸气的时候。
3．彗星撞击地球时，温度还高到可以蒸发彗星吗？没有任何记录。就算可以蒸发，也有可能会消失在太空，不易定会变成雨，就算变成雨，地球表面一定足够冷吗？
4．其他因素带来水：化学元素的变化等。