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The following appeared in a memo from the president of a chain of cheese stores located throughout the United States.
"For many years all the stores in our chain have stocked a wide variety of both domestic and imported cheeses. Last year, however, the five best-selling cheeses at our newest store were all domestic cheddar cheeses from Wisconsin. Furthermore, a recent survey by Cheeses of the World magazine indicates an increasing preference for domestic cheeses among its subscribers. Since our company can reduce expenses by limiting inventory, the best way to improve profits in all of our stores is to discontinue stocking many of our varieties of imported cheese and concentrate primarily on domestic cheeses."
The president suggests that, in order to improve profit, their company should stop stoking imported cheese and concentrate primarily on domestic cheeses. And he/she also provides evidence that the five best-selling cheeses at our newest store were all domestic cheeses and a survey of World magazine shows the increasing trend subscribers who prefer domestic cheese. However, further examination of the relationship between evidences and conclusions reveals that the argument is flawed by several critical aspects.
To begin with, the evidence that the five best-selling cheeses at our newest store were all domestic cheeses has no causal relationship with which domestic cheeses will sell good in all cheese store. Since the president does not provide the location of the newest store, maybe it nears Wisconsin, so people prefer such local cheeses. But the chain of cheese store located throughout the US, and, we all know that different places have their own unique tastes. The newest store example can not stand for all places condition. Therefore, unless the president could show these five cheeses are selling best in all stores, we could not accept the conclusion of concentrating primarily on domestic cheeses.
Furthermore, a survey shows that the increasing number of subscribers prefers domestic cheese; however, the survey made by Word Cheeses has some doubtful points. First, we do not know the respondents situation of the survey, like their number, country, and age, so we could not assess if the respondents representative. Second, we do not identify the purpose of Word Cheeses do the survey. In any case this survey is in order to satisfy their sponsors’ opinions; it will be having advertising effect. Without rule out above possibilities, we could not better evaluate the survey.
Last but not least, the president fails to consider the advantages and disadvantages of the solution. The suggestion's purpose is to improve profits. But the president has not shown any information about imported cheeses is worst-selling. Even if imported cheeses is not selling good as well as domestic cheeses, maybe the price of buying imported cheeses is much cheaper. Although it is not selling well, the profits of imported cheeses is higher. If our company discontinues stocking many varieties of imported cheese, we may lose a number of customers who prefer imported cheeses.
Above all, the president does not provide enough evidences to establish his/her suggestion, if he/she could prove domestic chesses are best-selling all over the country, the survey made by World Cheeses is really representative, and the solution’s benefits is larger than losses. Then, we could better evaluate if the company could carry this suggestion. |
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