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发表于 2009-6-23 00:49:34
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本帖最后由 okusa 于 2009-6-23 00:54 编辑
0910AWSPECTACULAR之【同主题写作】第五期ARGUMENT65 奶酪Argument65.The following appeared in a memo from the president of a chain of (区域差异)cheese stores located throughout the United States.
"For many years all the stores in our chain have stocked a wide variety of both domestic and imported cheeses. Last year, however,论据1:the five best-selling cheeses at our newest store were all domestic cheddar cheeses from Wisconsin. Furthermore, a recent survey by Cheeses of the World magazine indicates an increasing preference for domestic cheeses among its subscribers. Since our company can reduce expenses by limiting inventory, the best way to improve profits in all of our stores is to假设1:减少库存可以降低花销discontinue stocking many of our varieties of imported cheese and concentrate primarily on domestic cheeses."
提纲:
1.作者认为新店销售国货高以及有杂志调查为依据,则说减少进口奶酪来提高利润的结论是不对的。
2.
新商店不代表全国商店。
是CHEDDARCHEESE受欢迎还是国货受欢迎?
3.
作者的第2个论据来自一个调查,但是它的订阅者代表性如何?也许是国货爱好者联盟。即便订阅者具备代表性,他们的PREFERENCE就可以保证GOING TO BUY吗?
4.
作者说减少进口货的库存,则不能说明增加盈利。即便前五都是国货是真的,但是前5的销量在总奶酪销量的比例高吗?也许其他的5名以后的进口货销量高或者利润更高,则总盈利反倒更高。(所以也许进口货还是有市场的。)
In the memo, the president concludes that the profits would be increased by discontinuing stocking theimported cheese and concentrating on domestic cheeses. This conclusion is based on two arguments cited by the president: (1) the five best-selling cheeses atthe newest stores were all domestic cheddar cheeses; and (2) a recent survey’s indication of an increasing preference for domestic cheeses. I find these arguments too weak to support the conclusion.
Firstly, the newest stores are not representative of all stores. The best-selling achievements of domestic cheese at those newest stores may attribute to other reasons. Probably, the newest stores have coupons for domestic cheeses in order to grab more attention from the local customers. However, there is no such evidence and no detailed information of the new stores’ location in the arguments, so the limited fact of the newest store does not supportive.
Even if the newest store can represent the whole chain stores, it is too hasty to say the domestic cheeses are the most welcomed; the “domestic cheddar cheese” does not equal to domestic cheese; that is to say, it may attribute to people’s favor of cheddar cheese.
Secondly, the president cannot convince me by using such a survey by a magazine that has limited subscribers.The subscribers of Cheese of the world may be an association of domestic cheese lovers; therefore, the participants of this survey are not representative,which weakens the second argument of the president.
Moreover, even if the presidentconvinces me by evidences that the participants of the survey are representative, the preference of domestic cheeses of the survey result does not prove the customers have the tendency to buy it.
Finally, although it is the common sense that limiting inventory may reduce expenses, it remains to be discussed of whether discontinue stocking imported cheese may improve profits.I think the president confused the correlation of them. Let’s say, even if discontinuing imported cheese may reduce the expenses, we cannot say this action would bring profits. There are two reasons to repute: (1) stocking imported cheese has been for many years as indicated in the memo, so there must be a reason to maintain imported cheese stocked; (2) as in the first argument, indeed,the top 5 best-selling cheese are domestic ones. However, there is no evidenceto prove the sales profit of imported cheeses have low proportion of the whole;in other words, the imported cheese may be a great profitable part in the whole business.
To sum up, the president’s conclusion suffers from poor evidence. To bolster it, the author needs to show the supportive data from in-depth market research. It won’t be too late to draw the conclusion until the author can prove the imported cheese has low profits and high costs.
再附上WORD版本的,以便互改同学用。^_^谢谢!
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