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发表于 2009-6-23 19:57:59
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For many years all the stores in our chain have stocked a wide variety of both domestic and imported cheeses. Last year, however, the five best-selling cheeses at our newest store were all domestic cheddar cheeses from Wisconsin. Furthermore, a recent survey by Cheeses of the World magazine indicates an increasing preference for domestic cheeses among its subscribers. Since our company can reduce expenses by limiting inventory, the best way to improve profits in all of our stores is to discontinue stocking many of our varieties of imported cheese and concentrate primarily on domestic cheeses。
Outline:
1:Wisconsin最新店的销售情况不能代表stores:当地人的口味;当地距cheddar工厂的距离;cheddar不能代表domestic cheese。
2:survey的代表性问题:样本代表性随机性,样本subscribers不能代表奶酪的购买者;domestic cheeses赞助商。
3:按结论的方法做,不一定能使利润增大:利润与成本之间的关系。
The article concludes that decreasing of inventory of imported cheese as well focusing on domestic cheeses might be the best way to improve the company’s profits. To support his claim, author begins with excellent sale record of cheddar cheeses in Wisconsin’s newest store. Also, he cites a survey’s result displaying that domestic cheeses become primary choices. Yet, the argument suffers from several flaws, which render it incredible.
Firstly, the argument assumes that the sales of cheddar cheeses in the newest store in Wisconsin could reflect the trend of the sales of domestic cheeses in all of the stores. For the first thing, the author wrongly equates the cheddar cheeses with domestic cheeses obviously. For the lack of sale information of other cheeses, one cannot rule out the possibility all of the domestic cheeses except the cheddar cheeses have a terrible sale in this store, which is not a passive evidence for the conclusion. For another thing, because the company is nationwide, the sale record in a specific store is insufficient to demonstrate the situation in general region. It is totally perhaps that Wisconsin’s residents’ preference to cheddar cheeses is because of their special taste, which might not exist in other regions. Then, the excellent sale of cheddar cheeses is a result of local protectionism made by the government. In sum, the analog based on this face is inconvincible.
A second problem with the argument is that the survey’s result is doubtful. The author uses the survey to support his conclusion about the company’s cheese sale policy. In general, samples for such a survey should represent all cheese buyers all around the country. However, from the described survey, we figured out that the samples come from the magazine’s subscribers. As well, common sense tells us that it is probable that sponsors of the magazine may involve several domestic cheeses producers. If it is in this case, the prejudice of this magazine will influence the justice of the survey. To make the analogy more substantial, the author should give more details about the survey.
Finally, it is too hastily to assume that the conclusion will attain the purpose. There is no sufficient evidence to prove such a recommendation could reduce the expenses for all of the stores in the country. Meanwhile, obviously the sale situation of a product, the cost and the price of it decide its profit together. Yet, the article just concerns about the sales of cheeses and the expenses of inventory ignoring details about different cheeses’ price and total costs. Even if the recommendation might decrease the expenses of inventory, we cannot make any certain conclusion about the profits of the company. For instance, if the profit of selling imported cheeses is much higher than of domestic bands, this recommendation will decrease the profit of the company.
In conclusion, the author cannot justify the validity of his conclusion on the basis of incredible analogy and unsubstantial evidence. To strengthen the argument, the author must give more facts such as profits of different cheeses, the regional differences among stores, and people’s real preference of buying cheeses. |
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