0910AW SPECTACULAR之众人拾柴火焰高——ARGUMENT题目分析接力活动帖

ddcmj519UID: 176326

0910AW SPECTACULAR之众人拾柴火焰高

——ARGUMENT题目分析接力活动帖

【规则很简单】

1楼帖个题目题目拆析下。分析题目逻辑链并简略陈述相关问题，再补充上提纲也可，然后给楼下出一道题。

2楼讨论楼上的分析有什么问题，然后分析上面给的题目，再给楼下出一题。

……

往后基本就按二楼的了。同时可以补充前面所讨论过的楼层中 自己认为有问题的分析。

楼上在分析过程中有疑问亦可提出，要求楼下解决。

如此反复。

考虑到有同学先后回复同一个楼上的内容，后面的同学就近分析即可~
（主要接力内容比较多，这个问题应该比较常见。。）

【关于奖励】
凡参加此活动者由版主发放5GTB。

凡参加特认真的同学（比如 分析透彻or提纲详细等）版主会额外加分~~

草木特注：以全英文形式参加的同学将享受双倍加分哦~~

同时定期我们会统计参加次数，每月累计的前三名同学将获得版主修改权一次，前五名的同学将获得AW奖章哦~~

[关于版主修改的具体操作见https://bbs.gter.net/thread-959230-1-1.html]

【所以~】
大家加油~
赶快来参加吧~~

请大家保证回帖原创性~
从别处copy来的内容于人于己都是没有用的。
All actions gonna have consequences

请尽量不要水~保持此帖学术性，谢谢配合~


另外，本活动初次实行，如有流程上的问题请与我联系~
*^_^*

ddcmj519UID: 176326

我先开头做范例啦~
140The following appeared in a report of the Committee on Faculty Promotions and Salaries at Elm City University.

"During her seventeen years as a professor of botany, Professor Thomas has proved herself to be well worth her annual salary of $50,000. Her classes are among the largest at the university, demonstrating her popularity among students. Moreover, the money she has brought to the university in research grants has exceeded her salary in each of the last two years. Therefore, in consideration of Professor Thomas' demonstrated teaching and research abilities, we recommend that she receive a $10,000 raise and a promotion to Department Chairperson; without such a raise and promotion, we fear that Professor Thomas will leave Elm City University for another college."
题目逻辑链：
among largest classes → popularity ①                                                   加钱&升职   
                                                        > teaching & research ability③ →<
       grants > salary, last 2years      ②                   ↑                              ④否则跳槽
                                                             worth present salary

题目分析：
①课大≠自愿参与人多≠上的好≠受欢迎
   比如咱的高数课，或者啥通识课程，貌似班都挺大的，但是一定是受欢迎？大家都一定想听这个课？难说是因为学校这个课开的少，又是必选课程，所以导致的课程容量大。而且一般来说课程容量大的话教学效果就不一定好，缺乏和同样大小的班级用教学成绩比较缺乏说服力。再者，他要说明的是该人在本系的教学水平突出，那么他为什么不提供与学院间老师授课情况的对比？最后，除了学校设置方面的资料，为什么不直接提供学生对此课程的反响？
②grants多≠研究能力
   貌似一般评定研究能力不是以挣的钱，是以paper的质与量来决定？而且就算一个人的研究有成果，也不一定能赚钱，比如是个冷门专业，市场对这个需求就不怎么滴。更有可能就是前两年买进了一个机器，这两年就靠这个机器给外面做了点事儿赚了点钱，这样能算做研究能力的体现吗？还是同样的问题，在系里面选带头人，缺乏横向对比是不行的。就算真的凭钱论英雄，也该给系里其他人一个对比，证明，她这两年确实比别人赚的狠，确实研究能力可以。
③teaching & research abilities 很高就一定能当系主任？
   众所周知，领导是需要统筹兼顾的本事及决策能力。领导不仅得研究上有所建树更需要对学院在今后的发展建设方面有远见，这个不是在教学和研究上能够体现的能力。就算她那俩能力可以，并且真的成绩突出，可以考虑给加薪，升职的话还得综合考虑其个人因素。比如她就是个学者类型，每天都在教学研究上很下功夫，所以这两方面很优秀。她自己是否有意愿担任这个职？担任这个职位是否会影响她的研究教学？这个影响是否会影响本系的声誉等等。。（这个扯远了点。。）
④至于是否跳槽这个问题，完全木有依据。学者跳槽一般依据学院的研究设施研究条件研究氛围等。

楼下的分析此题（不一定要按照我的那种形式分析，按照自己的思路，言之有物即可~）
199There is a general idea that waiters and waitresses are more likely to receive larger gratuities from large groups of people. A recent research study suggests this is not true. The researchers examined the relationship between the size of tips in restaurants and the number of meals charged on the bill. They found that, while most tips were around 15 percent, the minimum percentage considered appropriate, people dining alone tipped consistently more (19 percent) and those dining in groups of four or more tipped considerably less (13 percent) than this 15 percent standard. These results strongly suggest that people dining in a group are less likely to feel personally responsible for leaving an adequate or generous tip.

家家☆yoonjaeUID: 2646910

199 There is a general idea that waiters and waitresses are more likely to receive larger gratuities from large groups of people. A recent research study suggests this is not true. The researchers examined the relationship between the size of tips in restaurants and the number of meals charged on the bill. They found that, while most tips were around 15 percent, the minimum percentage considered appropriate, people dining alone tipped consistently more (19 percent) and those dining in groups of four or more tipped considerably less (13 percent) than this 15 percent standard. These results strongly suggest that people dining in a group are less likely to feel personally responsible for leaving an adequate or generous tip.

Let's analyze the logic chain first:

The researchers examined the relationship between the size of tips in restaurants and the number of meals charged on the bill.
               ↓①         
The research shows that people dining alone tipped (19%) > the minimum percentage considered appropriate (15%) > people dining in groups of four or more (13%)
                                                                                                                    ↓②
             people dining in a group are less likely to feel personally responsible for leaving an adequate or generous tip
                                                                                                                    ↓③
   the general idea that waiters and waitresses are more likely to receive larger gratuities from large groups of people is WRONG

① Fundamentally，the author offers incomplete reseach results which can make the conclusion drastically tropple over. The author gives contrasting data of separate dinning and group of four or more, but how about 2 or 3 persons' dinning? It is entirely possible for us to suspect the author left the data deliberately in order to fit his conclusion.
② Even the data which the author gives is representative, people dinning alone tipped higher percentage than when they were dinning in group, it's still entirely hasty for him to deduce that people dining in a group are less likely to feel personally responsible for leaving an adequate or generous tip. According to our common sense, a group of people go out for dinner will definitely call more foods and consequently higher bills, thus, although the percentage might be lower apparently, they pay more money in fact. Further more, when people go out for dinner with their friends,  they always leave a more than adequate or generous tip in all probability because people always be concerned about face-saving and they always tip according to their friends' behaviors because of the group psychology.
③ Last but not least, the author misquotes the research to suggest the general idea, waiters and waitresses are more likely to receive larger gratuities from large groups of people, is not true. Those waiters and waitresses often receive larger gratuities from large groups of people even each of the group pays less percentage than the  minimum percentage considered appropriate. There isn't any direct relationship between the gratuities a waiter can receive and the tipped percentage of one guest.

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累死我了。。破草草干哈要整个用全英文回答就双倍加分滴。。。=皿=。。。
=================================================================

A 200.Statistics collected from dentists indicate that three times more men than women faint while visiting the dentist. This evidence suggests that men are more likely to be distressed about having dental work done than women are. Thus, dentists who advertise to attract patients should target the male consumer and emphasize both the effectiveness of their anesthetic techniques and the sensitivity of their staff to nervous or suffering patients.

yjwn1987UID: 2495078

占座的童鞋交货了，为了不坏规矩再写一个好了，sigh...

A 200.Statistics collected from dentists indicate that three times more men than women faint while visiting the dentist. This evidence suggests that men are more likely to be distressed about having dental work done than women are. Thus, dentists who advertise to attract patients should target the male consumer and emphasize both the effectiveness of their anesthetic techniques and the sensitivity of their staff to nervous or suffering patients.

Three times more --- more likely
(only)Faint-----be distressed----men can’t suffer the pain ( as women
do)
-----men will choose a dentist who can decrease their pain ----
sensitivity of their staff can decrease the pain ---  so,
advertise their sensitivity
1.      通篇只讲faint,是否痛苦表现仅为昏倒？未将哭泣，拒绝看医生的男女比例计算入内（可能女性哭的人较多）
2.      有三倍人数不能证明男性普遍较易晕倒，还是survey的问题，基数以及各自昏倒的比率（男性患牙病的人数大大超过女性/ 昏倒的人数本来就极其少，不能说明问题）
3.      昏倒是否就是因为不能忍受疼痛？（有可能为较多男性晕血，或者对某种药物具有敏感性，或病情比女性严重。）
4.      即使疼痛，男性是否就将医治过程中是否疼痛做为唯一的选择标准？（医治效果，收费，服务态度）
5.      staff的敏感度是否能减轻疼痛？（对于神经紧张的病人也许有安抚作用，但是对病情无帮助）




       47.Scientists studying historical weather patterns have discovered that in he mid-sixth century, Earth suddenly became significantly cooler. Although few historical records survive from that time, some accounts
found both in Asia and Europe mention a dimming of the sun and extremely cold temperatures. Either a huge volcanic eruption or a large meteorite colliding with Earth could have created a large dust cloud throughout
Earth's atmosphere that would have been capable of blocking enough sunlight to lower global temperatures significantly. A large meteorite collision, however, would probably create a sudden bright flash of light, and no extant historical records of the time mention such a flash. Some surviving Asian historical records of the time, however, mention a loud boom that would be consistent with a volcanic eruption. Therefore, the cooling was probably caused by a volcanic eruption

betterpenny1UID: 2658748

答200#好了！



logic chain：数据说男性看牙医晕厥次数是女性的3倍①

                                       ↓②

                 男性比女性更容易感到痛楚

                                       ↓③

                  ⑴用广告吸引顾客的牙医应针对男性群体

                  ⑵强调麻醉技术和对患者痛楚的敏感④

①数据不可靠，来源？样本量大小？有可能采样的男性对象恰好都是容易晕厥的人
②i>痛也分大痛，小痛。有的会使人晕厥，有的不会。对痛的敏感度不是由是否晕厥或晕厥次数来衡量的。女性说不定更容易感觉到痛楚，但所谓敏感，就是对很轻微的痛有感觉，所以不会使人晕厥。
  ii>晕厥不一定是因为痛引起的，还有可能是紧张，或姿势不对，压迫到脊柱或是神经造成的；晕厥与否与各人体制也有关。
③i>顾客群不应只针对男性，男性更易晕厥不能说明男性患者多余女性。如果只针对男性，流失女性顾客，盈利就少。
   ii>女性对牙齿健康，牙齿美容更加关注，所以不能只针对男性。
   iii>就算男性易感到痛楚，那用广告的方式就更不容易打动男性就诊。
④没有证据证明这种麻醉技术有何优势，其他牙医也可能有麻醉技术（麻醉就是使人不痛，所以没有优劣之分啊）。也没有证据证明这种技术就会有预期的效果，说不定适得其反：广告中的图片是患者更加剧紧张或痛苦。

才开始准备AW没多久，请前辈们指点。

59. Yellow-legged frogs were once common in high-altitude lakes in the Sierra Nevada mountains, but they have become increasingly rare. Trout feed on tadpoles and young frogs. Few lakes in the Sierra Nevada had any trout in them until a hundred years ago. At that time, many lakes were stocked with trout for recreational fishing, and now trout are common in virtually all bodies of water in the Sierra Nevada. Researchers removed the trout from one lake, and the frog population soon quadrupled. Since frogs are capable of moving several miles over land, removing trout from just a few lakes is clearly the way to restore the frog population to its former levels.

yjwn1987UID: 2495078

59. Yellow-legged frogs were once common in high-altitude lakes in the Sierra Nevada mountains, but they have become increasingly rare. 1 Trout feed on tadpoles and young frogs.

2 Few lakes in the Sierra Nevada had any trout in them until a hundred years ago. At that time, many lakes were stocked with trout for recreational fishing, and now trout are common in virtually all bodies of water in the Sierra Nevada. 3 Researchers removed the trout from one lake, and the frog population soon quadrupled. Since frogs are capable of moving several miles over land, removing trout from just a few lakes is clearly the way to restore the frog population to its former levels.
首先三个论证直接指向鳟鱼导致青蛙减少：
1.鳟鱼会吃蝌蚪和小青蛙
2.青蛙曾经繁盛，现在稀少。而鳟鱼从前不存在，现在很常见。
3.在某一个湖里做实验，移走鳟鱼青蛙就多了。
措施
1 因为鳟鱼导致青蛙减少所以要把鳟鱼移走
2 因为青蛙会在湖之间跳所以只要使某几个湖里青蛙增多其他湖青蛙数量就自然增多
3 不仅增多，还能增回原来的水平。

提纲：
1.青蛙的生存和很多因素有关系，气候，水质，天敌，食物来源，人类活动。全文只考虑天敌一项显然是片面的。
2.鳟鱼的确会吃蝌蚪和小青蛙，但是没有证据证明这会导致青蛙濒临灭绝。毕竟鳟鱼是一百年前才引进，而青蛙很有可能在这之前就已经开始大规模减少。
3.实验所选取的湖是否具有其特殊性？比如为了实验禁止人们垂钓，污染。实验期间处于最适宜青蛙繁殖的季节。
4.即使鳟鱼为青蛙杀手，让青蛙自行迁移可以恢复原数量也是无依据的。青蛙是否一定可以迁移到其他湖中？特别是考虑到SN的山地环境。就算迁移由于其他湖中还存在鳟鱼，恢复原数量显然是很困难的。

我认为，这个题的总体逻辑还是比较直白的，难在一下想到里面几个时间的关系。第三点做实验的攻击我觉得自己说的不是很有力，一时想不到别的理由了。希望同学们多多指教。
PS 这次 总该写我的了吧。。。

47.Scientists studying historical weather patterns have discovered that in he mid-sixth century, Earth suddenly became significantly cooler. Although few historical records survive from that time, some accounts found both in Asia and Europe mention a dimming of the sun and extremely cold temperatures. Either a huge volcanic eruption or a large meteorite colliding with Earth could have created a large dust cloud throughout Earth's atmosphere that would have been capable of blocking enough sunlight to lower global temperatures significantly. A large meteorite collision, however, would probably create a sudden bright flash of light, and no extant historical records of the time mention such a flash. Some surviving Asian historical records of the time, however, mention a loud boom that would be consistent with a volcanic eruption. Therefore, the cooling was probably caused by a volcanic eruption

家家☆yoonjaeUID: 2646910

47.Scientists studying historical weather patterns have discovered that in the mid-sixth century, Earth suddenly became significantly cooler. Although few historical records survive from that time, some accounts found both in Asia and Europe mention a dimming of the sun and extremely cold temperatures. Either a huge volcanic eruption or a large meteorite colliding with Earth could have created a large dust cloud throughout Earth's atmosphere that would have been capable of blocking enough sunlight to lower global temperatures significantly. A large meteorite collision, however, would probably create a sudden bright flash of light, and no extant historical records of the time mention such a flash. Some surviving Asian historical records of the time, however, mention a loud boom that would be consistent with a volcanic eruption. Therefore, the cooling was probably caused by a volcanic eruption.

Still, let's analyze the logic chain first:

  NO extant historical records              Asian historical records
of the time mention such a flash           mention a loud boom

             ↓ ①                                          ↓②

a large meteorite colliding with Earth      a huge volcanic eruption

                    ＼                              ／
                       ＼                                         ／
      created a large dust cloud throughout Earth's atmosphere
                                              ↓③

        a dimming of the sun and extremely cold temperatures

                            ↓④

Earth suddenly became significantly cooler in the mid-sixth century


① 、② It's arbitrary for the author to infer his conclusion from ambiguous and vague evidences. No extant historical records cannot bolster there wasn't  existing a large meteorite colliding with Earth such steadily, because  those records might be lost.  And for the same reason, there still wasn't any cogent evidence can buttress the loud boom,  which those Asian historical records mentioned, was caused by a huge volcanic eruption.
③   The link between a large dust cloud throughout Earth's atmosphere and the extremely cold temperatures is far-fetched and weak. The author fails to tell the detailed information as evidence and explaination to reveal the scientific causation.
④   The author didn't tell any other probability which can cause the widespreaded cooling.  Maybe the reason is  related to the operation of the solar system in the Milky Way galaxy.


================================================================
这题看起来可以攻击的点很多，但是似乎每个点能够写出的力度都不够，sigh
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36.The following appeared in an article written by Dr. Karp, an
anthropologist.

"Twenty years ago Dr. Field, a noted anthropologist, visited the island of Tertia and concluded from his observations that children in Tertia were reared by an entire village rather than by their own biological parents. However, my recent interviews with children living in the group of islands that includes Tertia show that these children spend much more time talking about their biological parents than about other adults in the village. This research proves that Dr. Field's conclusion about Tertian village culture is false, and thus that the observation-centered approach to studying cultures is invalid. Because they are using the interview-centered method, my team of graduate students working in Tertia will establish a much more accurate understanding of child-rearing raditions there and in other island cultures."

ddcmj519UID: 176326

插个话，大家可以提问让楼下的回答哇~~~

楼下的回答楼上的~

lucarlUID: 2616426

家家的A36我来~

lucarlUID: 2616426

36.The following appeared in an article written by Dr. Karp, an
anthropologist.

"Twenty years ago Dr. Field, a noted anthropologist, visited the island of Tertia and concluded from his observations that children in Tertia were reared by an entire village rather than by their own biological parents. However, my recent interviews with children living in the group of islands that includes Tertia show that these children spend much more time talking about their biological parents than about other adults in the village. This research proves that Dr. Field's conclusion about Tertian village culture is false, and thus that the observation-centered approach to studying cultures is invalid. Because they are using the interview-centered method, my team of graduate students working in Tertia will establish a much more accurate understanding of child-rearing traditions there and in other island cultures."

Logic track of the author:
Background:
1. Observation-centered conclusion of children on Tertia Island reared by entire village
2. Interview-centered research of children on the group of islands including Tertia talking more about biological parents

Based these 2 points above, the author concluded that DF’s observations failed to provide an accurate understanding of child-rearing traditions, and therefore the observation-centered approach to studying cultures is invalid.

Moreover, according to his conclusion above the author has much confidence that his graduates will establish a much more accurate understanding of child-rearing traditions of Tertian and in other island cultures.


I think we could exam the argument as listed below:
1、DF observed the children on island Tertia, while DK interviewed children on a group of islands including Tertia.

2、Compare the observations of Tertia children with the interviews of the Tertia part. Seeing is believing. Interviews are more subjective work than observations. Maybe the children are missing their biological parents when talking about them ceaselessly, because they are not reared by them.

3、A single research could not perish the observation-centered approach to studying cultures. For example, study culture by books, you can never interview a book.

===============
我是第一次出场的分割线
===============

出题：
240The following appeared in a memo written by a dean at Buckingham College.

"To serve the housing needs of our students, Buckingham College should build a new dormitory. Buckingham's enrollment is growing and, based on current trends, should double over the next fifty years, thus making existing dormitories inadequate. Moreover, the average rent for an apartment in our town has increased in recent years. Consequently, students will find it increasingly difficult to afford off-campus housing. Finally, an attractive new dormitory would make prospective students more likely to enroll at Buckingham."

家家☆yoonjaeUID: 2646910

240The following appeared in a memo written by a dean at Buckingham College.

"To serve the housing needs of our students, Buckingham College should build a new dormitory. Buckingham's enrollment is growing and, based on current trends, should double over the next fifty years, thus making existing dormitories inadequate. Moreover, the average rent for an apartment in our town has increased in recent years. Consequently, students will find it increasingly difficult to afford off-campus housing. Finally, an attractive new dormitory would make prospective students more likely to enroll at Buckingham."

Fundamentally, let's analyze the logic chain first.

the average rent for an apartment in our town increased
                            ↓
more difficult to afford off-campus housing
                            ↓ Factor I                                          
To serve the housing needs of students →Buckingham College should build a new dormitory→attract prospective students
                                                                                 (Conclusion)                                                  (added value)
                            ↑ Factor II
       existing dormitories inadequate
                            ↑
      Buckingham's enrollment is growing

Gounding on two reasons, the author argues Buckingham College should build a new dormitory:
The first one is the enrolled students would find it increasingly difficult to afford off-campus housing because the average rent for an apartment in the town has increased. (This is the author's deduction.)
The second one is the growing enrollment in Buckingham would cause existing dormitories inadequate. (Still the author's inference.)

Let's contradict the first reason the author argues:
The average rent for an apartment in the town has increased. ≠ enrolled students would find it increasingly difficult to afford off-campus.
Other causes: 1. It's extremely common for college students share an apartment with one or more roommates then they can afford the whole rent together. Although the average rent has increased, everyone may only afford few more than before and the amount charged is still lower than the campus housing.
2.The average rent in the town has increased doesn't include those apartments in suburb, thus, students may prefer pay more transportation fee and less rent which the total amount is still lower.
3. The charge problem is not the only reason that a college student choose campus housing or not. More convenience transportation, more suitable house applicances, lower surrounding consumption and etc.

Then, let's contradict the second reason:
Buckingham's enrollment is growing ≠existing dormitories inadequate
Probable causes: 1. Indeed Buckingham's enrollment is growing, we need to question if the existing dormitories are adequate or not first. It's entirely possible that the existing dormitories are abundant and even superfluous.
2. The fresh enrolled students' situations need to be checked. If they are locals or not, how many of them want to choose campus housing and so on, several questions need to be investigated before begin construction of the new dormitory.

And the added value which the author mentions in his argument is still need to be considered over.
Abundant (even cheap enough) dormitories ≠attract prospective students
A college's academic atmosphere, hardware & software facilities, geographical advantage and etc. all these are influencing factors. It's really absurd for the author deduce the added value.


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这篇，我写出来的逻辑似乎不能被娃儿们理解。。瞬间自我BSing...看看大家的看法^^
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167 A folk remedy* for insomnia, the scent in lavender flowers, has now been proved effective. In a recent study, 30 volunteers with chronic insomnia slept each night for three weeks on lavender-scented pillows in a controlled room where their sleep was monitored. During the first week, volunteers continued to take their usual sleeping medication. They slept soundly but wakened feeling tired. During the second week, the volunteers discontinued their medication. As a result, they slept less soundly than the previous week and felt even more tired. During the third week, the volunteers slept longer and more soundly than in the previous two weeks. This shows that over a short period of time lavender cures insomnia.

*A folk remedy is usually a plant-based form of treatment common to traditional forms of medicine, ones that developed before the advent of modern medical services and technology.