Argument提纲 =So What=小组第5次作业 by xwlove

xwloveUID: 2481588

Argument提纲 =So What=小组第5次作业 by xwlove

xwloveUID: 2481588

51.The following appeared in a medical newsletter.

"Doctors have long suspected that secondary infections may keep some patients from healing quickly after severe muscle strain. This hypothesis has now been proved by preliminary results of a study of two groups of patients. The first group of patients, all being treated for muscle injuries by Dr. Newland, a doctor who specializes in sports medicine, took antibiotics regularly throughout their treatment. Their recuperation恢复  time was, on average, 40 percent quicker than typically expected. Patients in the second group, all being treated by Dr. Alton, a general physician,
were given sugar pills, although the patients believed they were taking antibiotics. Their average recuperationtime was not significantly reduced. Therefore, all patients who are diagnosed with muscle strain would be well advised to take antibiotics as part of their treatment."

1 二次感染vs抗生素：服用抗生素不一定意味着没有二次感染，服用糖丸也不一定意味着二次感染

2 控制组vs对照组：康复时间受到很多因素影响：扭伤程度、受伤部位、病人身体素质；若不排除干扰因素，康复时间平均并没有说服力，因而研究结果可能出于偶然。

3 即便抗生素防止二次感染从而促进康复，关于抗生素的副作用没有提及。


52.The following appeared in a memo to the human resources manager at Baobob Inc., a large architectural firm.

"Several well-known, retired architects were interviewed in Architecture Today about changes in the field. Only one had earned a college degree in architecture. All others had come into the field at an early age by serving apprenticeships that required them to work under the direct supervision of an experienced architect. Several of the colleges that we recruit from report that many promising architecture students leave school early in their undergraduate career. Therefore, because finding talented architecture graduates is becoming more difficult, Baobob Inc. should start an aggressive apprenticeship program and hire students who express an interest in architecture directly out of high school rather than wait for them to get out of college."


1 调查（访谈）问题
2 错误类比 即便访谈说明学徒现象有助于培养建筑人才，时间跨度上的错误类比
3 模糊数据 部分学院的情况（缺乏代表性）；many promising architecture students（并不知道具体数目），有可能在毕业生中招募比在高中招募更容易，而且招募到更高层次的人才节省培训成本。


53.Thirteen years ago, researchers studied a group of 25 infants who showed signs of mild distress when exposed to unfamiliar stimuli such as an unusual odor or a tape recording of an unknown voice.
They discovered that these infants were more likely than other infants to have been conceived in early autumn, a time when their mothers' production of melatonin-a hormone known to affect some brain functions-would naturally increase in response to decreased daylight.In a follow-up study conducted earlier this year, more than half of these children-now teenagers-who had shown signs of distress identified themselves as shy. Clearly, increased levels of melatonin before birth cause shyness during infancy and this shyness continues into later life.

1 样本问题  25 infants who showed signs of mild distress when exposed to unfamiliar stimuli
2 错误因果  是否是melatonin导致affect some brain functions，进而使婴儿showed signs of mild distress
3 概念混淆、模糊概念 mild distress不等于shyness；identified themselves as shy（必须严格定义和测量）
4 hasty conclusion||条件不充分 即便前面的因果关系以及假设成立，羞涩是否是婴儿期延续的不得而知；羞涩作为一种性格也受到后天环境的影响。

54.The following appeared in a newsletter on dental health.

"A recent research study reported the experience of dentists whose patients had, over a period of five years, regularly used Flux Dental Floss牙线 as part of their dental hygiene健康，卫生 routine.
The report indicates that these dentists had 50 percent fewer cases of gum disease than did dentists whose patients did not use Flux regularly.In addition, most of the Flux users who were surveyed by their dentists agreed that Flux's mint flavor would encourage people to floss more often. Thus, even though Flux may cost more than other brands of floss, it is clearly a worthwhile investment for those who want to be assured of healthy teeth and gums."

1 调查问题  （1）调查仅针对牙病患者，没有针对使用Flux的健康人士；（2）使用Flux 的gum disease病例比没有使用的病例少50%，有可能只是随意性的错误。很有可能使用Flux的人更注重口腔保护，减少了gum disease发生率，并不一定是Flux的作用
2 考虑问题不全面  即便上述结论正确，（1）Flux是最好的选择吗？Flux may cost more than other brands，而且Flux's mint flavor would encourage people to floss more often （2）还有除了dental floss意外其它选择吗?
3.充分必要条件错误 dental floss是healthy teeth and gums的保证吗

55.The following appeared in a Letter to the Editor of the Shady Village newspaper.

"Commuters乘客，经常往返者 are complaining that the rush hour traffic on Blue Highway between Shady Village and Bright City has doubled their commuting time. Some commuters have asked that an additional traffic lane be built, but the recent creation of such a lane on nearby Green Highway apparently attracted more commuters, judging from the fact that rush-hour traffic jams actually increased there this past winter. To reduce rush-hour traffic on Blue Highway, a bicycle lane should be added instead of a traffic lane. This approach will succeed because many citizens of Shady Village are avid积极的，热心的 bicyclists; 75 percent of respondents to a recent questionnaire distributed there said they would like to bicycle more hours per week than they currently do."

1. 错误类比 nearby Green Highway并不能代表Blue Highway的情况
2. 范围变化 plus many citizens of Shady Village are avid bicyclists 不一定能保证缓解交通压力（1）这些市民不一定是commtuers（2）即便（1），他们不一定能够或者愿意骑自行车commute
3. 调查类错误 （1）调查是否针对commuters？（2）即便调查针对commuters，hey would like to bicycle more hours per week than they currently do并不表示他们在rush hour 骑自行车

56.Collectors prize the ancient life-size与实物一样大小 clay泥土 statues of human figures made on Kali Island but have long wondered how the Kalinese artists were able to depict bodies with such realistic precision精度. Since archeologists have recently discovered molds模具 of human heads and hands on Kali, we can now conclude that the ancient Kalinese artists used molds of actual bodies, not sculpting雕刻 tools and techniques, to create these statues. This discovery explains why Kalinese miniature statues were abstract and entirely different in style: molds could only be used for life-size sculptures. It also explains why few ancient Kalinese sculpting tools have been found.In light of this development, collectors should expect the life-size sculptures to decrease in value and the miniatures to increase in value.

1.错误因果 （1）考古学家在kali发现的模具一定是kali艺术家使用的吗？（2）既便如此，不能解释解释为什么很少发现Kali的雕刻工具①只能说等身雕像没有使用雕塑工具，而缩微雕像不得而知 ②即便如此，还有可能是因为古代雕刻工具有可能已经了无痕迹
2. 充分必要条件错误 即便如作者所言，也不能说明等身雕像价值下降而缩微雕像价值上升；制作工艺只是决定其价值原因之一，还有可能由于稀缺程度、保存成本等决定


57.The following appeared in a newsletter on nutrition and health.

"Although the multimineral Zorba pill was designed as a simple dietary 饮食的 supplement, a study of first-time ulcer patients初患者 who took Zorba suggests that Zorba actually helps prevent ulcers溃疡. The study showed that only 25 percent of those ulcer patients who took Zorba under a doctor's direction developed new ulcers, compared to a 75 percent recurrence复发 rate among ulcer patients who did not take Zorba. Clearly, then, Zorba will be highly effective in preventing recurrent ulcers and if health experts inform the general public of this fact, many first-time ulcers can be prevented as
well."

尽管含多种矿物质的Zorba药片被设计成用作单纯的营养补充药，对于使用了Zorba的溃疡初患者的研究发现Zorba可以帮助预防溃疡。研究表明在医生的指导下服用Zorba的患者中只有25%得了新的溃疡，相比之下，那些没有服用Zorba的溃疡患者的复发率为75％。显然，Zorba在预防溃疡复发方面有很积极的效果，如果健康专家把这一事实公诸于众，很多初次发生的溃疡也同样可以得到预防。

1. 实验设计问题 （1）对照实验必须满足严格的条件，作者并没有给出相关信息 （2）临床试验样本的样本量是否足够大，否则不具有普适性
2. 偷换概念 即使effective in preventing recurrent ulcers，没有任何证据说明effective in preventing first-time ulcers

58.The following appeared in an article from a popular newsmagazine.

"In 1888 a stone was unearthed in northern Wisconsin with an inscription碑铭 in an old Scandinavian斯堪迪纳维亚文 alphabet and bearing the date 1362. Scandinavians were not, however, exploring or emigrating to northern Wisconsin in the fourteenth century①. Recent analysis proves, in fact, that the stone had been buried in the spot where it was found for no more than 100 years②. Moreover, the community near the discovery site was home to a group of people who had formed a club to study medieval Scandinavian culture-a period that includes the fourteenth century. The stone, therefore, is not a genuine artifact of medieval Scandinavian culture inscribed in the fourteenth century but most likely a hoax骗局 perpetrated  犯(罪)，做(坏事)by the group."

1.不一定是northern Wisconsin的Scandinavians做的，有可能是被别人拿到了northern Wisconsin
2. 碑铭被埋的时间不一定是制造碑铭的时间
3. 不一定是俱乐部成员埋的；也不能武断认为碑铭是假的、俱乐部成员造假

59.The following appeared in an article in the health section of a newspaper.

"According to the available medical records, the six worst worldwide flu epidemics during the past 300 years occurred in 1729, 1830, 1918, 1957, 1968, and 1977. These were all years with heavy sunspot太阳黑子 activity-that is, years when the Earth received significantly more solar energy than in normal years. ①People at particular risk for the flu should therefore avoid prolonged exposure to the Sun." ②③

1. a fallacy of concurrence 太阳黑子与流行感冒同时发生不能保证因果关系
可能巧合：由于它们发生周期大致相同 流感病毒的特性是有不种类型，每11年左右便会出现新的病毒品种。太阳黑子周期sunspot cycle大约11年。
2 non sequitur  没有证据表明prolonged exposure to the Sun 直接导致感冒；有可能是太阳黑子年气候异常所致，而非exposure to the Sun所致
3. the fallacy of faulty analogy 错误外推 即便长时间晒太阳导致流行感冒，在一般年份exposure to the Sun不一定能导致感冒

60.The following appeared in the health section of Glenntown's local newspaper.

"Several national medical studies suggest that older people who have pets tend to enjoy better health than those who do not have pets: those who have pets have lower rates of high blood pressure and arthritis. It seems clear that having to care for an animal promotes good health for the older person.①Therefore, Glenntown should establish a program to give a small pet such as a dog or cat to all of its citizens who are over the age of 65. ②This will help to insure that our senior citizens enjoy good health and have fewer medical bills." ③。
1. 调查问题 （1）混淆相关与因果 （2）错误外推 全国推Glenntown，可能Glenntown的情况不一样
2. 即便如此，并非所有人能够或者愿意养宠物，比如：养宠物需要花费时间、精力和成本。
3. 即便如此，（1）可能的坏处是：宠物容易将细菌或疾病传染给主人 （2）条件不充分：并不能保证身体健康和减少医药花费，其它很多因素影响：如饮食、运动等；高血压和关节炎的发病率都比较低，并不能保证其它疾病
结论：

61.The following appeared in a report by the School District of Eyleria.

"Nationally, the average ratio of computers to students in kindergarten through grade 12 (K-12) is 1:5. Educators indicate that this is very good ratio.
This means that across the country, all students have access to and can use computers daily in their classrooms①.
In Eyleria's K-12 schools, the ratio of computers to students is 1:7. This number is sufficient to ensure that all of Eyleria's students②, by the time they graduate from high school, will be fully proficient in the use of computer technology③.
Thus, there is no reason to spend any of the schools' budget on computers or other technology in the next few years."④
1平均情况不代表总体：并不一定所有学生都能使用电脑
2 ②③（1）Eyleria的比率低于全国平均水平 （2）regardless of that, 平均情况不代表总体，个别地方可能比率太小（3）如果high school相对于kindergarten、primary school比率小，或者电脑性能差等等，则不一定保证高中毕业生精通电脑
3 ④ 错误外推：并不能证明other technology不需要资金预算；现在推将来: 将来电脑维护和更新换代、学生人数增长，都将导致开支增长。

62.The Treasury has once again introduced a dollar coin, the Pine Tree dollar.
Neither the Presidential dollar coin, introduced 11 years ago, nor the Eagle dollar coin, introduced 3 years ago, remained in circulation long: people simply preferred spending paper dollars.
However, a survey conducted soon after its release①indicates that the Pine Tree dollar is far more appealing than other dollar coins: 76 percent② of respondents own the coin; 62 percent of those owning multiple coins③ consider it so attractive that they are still saving rather than spending the most recent coin to come into their possession. Since the Pine Tree coin promises to become the dollar currency of choice, the Treasury is correct to begin saving money by dramatically reducing the costly printing of paper dollars④.
1. ①hasty generalization，the survey was conducted soon after its release, which cannot necessarily apply to the future.
2. ②③faulty assumption, 76 percent of respondents owning the coin is no guarantee of the Pine Tree dollar’s attractiveness; those owning multiple coins is all the whole respondents, that does not lend any support to his/her assumption.
3 ④即便人们使用硬币，也不一定减少纸币的使用；不一定save money，硬币的发行成本不一定低于纸币


63.When Stanley Park first opened, it was the largest, most heavily used park in town. It is still the largest park, but it is no longer heavily used. Video cameras mounted in the park's parking lots last month revealed the park's drop in popularity: the recordings showed an average of only 50 cars per day. In contrast, tiny Carlton Park in the heart of the business district is visited by more than 150 people on a typical weekday. An obvious difference is that Carlton Park, unlike Stanley Park, provides ample seating. Thus, if Stanley Park is ever to be as popular with our citizens as is Carlton Park, the town will obviously need to provide more benches, thereby converting some of the unused open areas into spaces suitable for socializing.

当Stanley公园第一次开放的时候，它是本市最大，使用频率最高的公园。现在它仍是最大的，但使用频率已经不再高了。上个月在公园停车场架设的摄像机发现公园的受欢迎度下降了：录像显示平均每天只有50辆车。与之相比，位于商业区中心地带的Carlton小公园在工作日每天游客超过150人。一个很明显的差异就是Carlton公园与Stanley公园不同，它提供充足的座椅。因此，如果Stanley公园想要和Carlton获得同等的受欢迎度的话，显然应该提供更多的长椅，从而把一些未加利用的开阔地转化成适于人们交往的空间。

64.The following appeared in a memo from the Dean of the College of Education at Omni State University.

"Only seven of our state's high schools offer even one course in Latin, but over 80 percent of the graduates who study Latin at those seven schools enroll in college. ①Furthermore, a recent study shows that students who have mastered Latin perform much better in logic and critical thinking. Thus, in order to increase the percentage of our high school students who graduate from college as well as to ensure that they receive a better education in critical thinking,② Omni State University should begin an intensive program to prepare our future teachers③ to teach high school Latin."
1．unfounded assumption 学习拉丁语升学率高？ （1）模糊数据：不一定高the author claims that 80% of the graduates who study Latin enroll in college, but no information about the percentage of the graduates who enroll in college. （2）即便相对高：也不一定是由于学习拉丁语，有可能是这些学校的教学质量高；也有可能有由于拉丁语课程比较难，选修拉丁语课程的学生相对优秀或者更勤奋；
2 既便如此，学习拉丁语并不一定保证增加大学毕业率，大学毕业收到诸多因素影响；可能提高大学教学质量，激发学生学习兴趣是更为直接可行的办法；
3.  unjustified assumption 可能由于这些高中并不一定需要拉丁语老师；可能选修的学生不多，或者资源条件限制……

65.The following appeared in a memo from the president of a chain of cheese stores located throughout the United States.

"For many years all the stores in our chain have stocked a wide variety of both domestic and imported cheeses. Last year, however, the five best-selling cheeses at our newest store were all domestic cheddar cheeses from Wisconsin. Furthermore, a recent survey by Cheeses of the World magazine indicates an increasing preference for domestic cheeses among its subscribers. Since our company can reduce expenses by limiting inventory, the best way to improve profits in all of our stores is to discontinue stocking many of our varieties of imported cheese and concentrate primarily on domestic cheeses."

66. The following appeared in a letter from a firm providing investment advice to a client.
"Homes in the northeastern United States, where winters are typically cold, have traditionally used oil as their major fuel① for heating. Last year that region experienced 90 days with below-average temperatures②, and climate forecasters at Waymarsh University predict that this weather pattern will continue for several more years. Furthermore, many new homes have been built① in this region during the past year. Because of these developments, we predict an increased demand for heating oil and recommend investment in Consolidated Industries, one of whose major business operations is the retail sale of home heating oil.③"
1. vague data, oil as their major fuel for heating, but chances are that other forms of energy are used, such as natural gas and electricity, of which the markets are unknown；同样new homes have been built也不一定意味着增加的市场
2. 即便如此，the author refers to 90 days with below-average temperatures as evidence , however, 不一定低于平均气温就意味着取暖并且需求增长；就算如此，一年之中的销售期如此之短，不一定能盈利，不一定是好的投资；
3 错误外推 即便此种气候延续，即便人们以oil为主要取暖方式，将来不一定，其它市场增长、原材料涨价等因素都会导致市场缩水(lead to shrink of the heating oil market)