同主题ARGUMENT65 =August Rush=小组第2次作业 by KevinSpacey

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Argument 65
The following appeared in a memo from the president of a chain of cheese stores located throughout the United States.
"For many years all the stores in our chain have stocked a wide variety of both domestic and imported cheeses. Last year, however, the five best-selling cheeses at our newest store were all domestic cheddar cheeses from Wisconsin. Furthermore, a recent survey by Cheeses of the World magazine indicates an increasing preference for domestic cheeses among its subscribers. Since our company can reduce expenses by limiting inventory, the best way to improve profits in all of our stores is to discontinue stocking many of our varieties of imported cheese and concentrate primarily on domestic cheeses."

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The memo argues that all of the stores of the chain of cheese should discontinue stocking many of varieties of imported cheese and concentrate primarily on domestic cheeses. It bases on three factors that the five best-selling cheeses at the newest store were all domestic cheddar cheeses the last year, a recent survey by CW magazine indicates an increasing preference for domestic cheeses among its subscribers, and the assumption that the company can reduce expenses by limiting inventory. This memo is well-presented but not well-reasoned.

Firstly, the fact that the five best-selling cheeses at the newest store were all domestic cheeses last year cannot prove the domestic cheeses will be sold better than the imported ones throughout the whole country for the next few years. One store does not represent the other stores located throughout the US. This newest store may locate at a low income area where people prefer buying domestic cheeses only because they are cheaper. It is also possible that the supply of imported cheeses is insufficiency. For example, the eighty percent stored cheeses of this store are domestic ones, hence, when the imported cheeses are sold out people can only buy domestic ones. These situations all lead to this phenomenon at the newest store. Even if the phenomenon happened at most stores all over the US last year, no one can guarantee that it will happen the next few years. It is likely that the supply of imported cheeses become sufficient the next year or the average income of people increases, which, may cause people buy more imported cheeses than before. In one word, the arguer should not generalize the phenomenon of one place one year to the whole country and for a long term.

Secondly, the generalizability and reliability of the survey are open to question. The survey by CW magazine only indicates an increasing preference for domestic cheeses among its subscribers but not an increasing purchasing willing in domestic cheeses among the whole country’s customers. It does not indicate that most of customers prefer domestic cheeses either. Even it is true, maybe the majority of the subscribers of CW magazine are customs who like domestic cheeses. The memo does not tell us the CW magazine’s subscribers’ distribution. If CW magazine is only popular at some specific area in which people prefer domestic cheeses to the imported ones, it could not represent all the US customers’ thought. Furthermore, the CW magazine may be sponsored by some domestic cheese producers which fabricated the result of survey in order to benefit from it. So we should not just take the survey as a sensible reason for the memo’s argument.

Finally, even though the customer all over the US will buy more domestic cheeses than the imported ones, the company should not just make the decision that discontinue stocking imported cheeses and concentrate primarily on the domestic ones. The arguer only focuses on the assumption that the company can reduce expenses by limiting inventory but ignores other facets than may affect the profits. For example, whether the unit profits of imported cheese if greater than the domestic cheese production? If the answer is yes, then the sales volume of domestic cheeses will has no advantage. The store should consider both the sales volume and the unit price but not only the sales volume. The transportation technique and preservation technique may improve the next few years, then the cost price of imported cheeses will decrease, which would make the sales volume of imported cheese greater than before.

Before the company makes the final decision, the arguer should find out the exact reason why the top 5 best selling cheese of the newest store are domestic ones; consider whether the result of survey by CW magazine can reflect the whole country’s customers’ desire; notice more facets which will influence the company’s profits.

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