本帖最后由 gig927 于 2009-7-9 21:14 编辑
题目:ARGUMENT14 - The following appeared in a memo from the owner of Green Thumb Gardening Center, a small business serving a suburban town.
"There is evidence that consumers are becoming more and more interested in growing their own vegetables. A national survey conducted last month indicated that many consumers were dissatisfied with the quality of fresh vegetables available in supermarkets. And locally, the gardening magazine Great Gardens has sold out at the Village News stand three months in a row. Thus, we at Green Thumb Gardening Center can increase our profits by greatly expanding the variety of vegetable seeds we stock for gardeners this coming spring."
1错误等同:SURVEY抱怨蔬菜超市不新鲜不等于会自己种自己的蔬菜。有可能消费者会跑到当地农村小贩那里买相对新鲜的蔬菜。有可能等超市进的蔬菜新鲜后,马上又在超市买菜。SURVEY调查出来的结果只是消费者的一种抱怨 2错误类比:国家范围进行的调查不能代表郊外小镇的情况。有可能小镇的居民对天天种菜已经厌倦了,更愿意去超市买菜。而其他城市的情况是人们从没自己种过菜可能对超市买不新鲜的蔬菜不感兴趣而选择自己尝试种菜。 3假性因果:大花园卖光了并不是大家对Gardening感兴趣,有可能小镇所有报刊亭中只有由于VN的报刊亭老板会做生意,所以那杂志才卖得好。有可能大花园杂志不是关于种植蔬菜,而是关于种花的,而当地居民喜欢种花。 profits问题。人们对种植蔬菜并不感兴趣,不会购买额外的种子,使得公司亏损
In this argument the author concludes that the consumers begin to exhibit much interest in growing their own vegetables. To support his statement, the author cites a national survey conducted last month; the favor of buying related gardening magazines. At the end, he suggests to expand the scale to increase profits.
First of all, a threshold problem is involving the survey. Only can the national survey conducted the dissatisfaction on quality of fresh vegetables available in supermarkets, but it can not indicate the consumers will manifest interest in growing their own vegetables. It is very possible that they prefer go to some villages to buy the fresh vegetables supplied by the local farmer; it is also likely that they will continue to buy vegetables from supermarkets after the fresh vegetables come again as the supermarkets will do some change about the concern on the survey. The survey is their kind of complain to the not fresh vegetables.
Moreover, it is highly doubtful that the strategy extrapolated from the national survey is equally applicable to the consumers’ interests on growing their own vegetables since the author may ignore the unique features of that town, rendering the argument less reliable. What may distinguish the town from most of other cities of the nation is that the people of the town used to growing their own fresh vegetables for a long time, which make them boring, as they may prefer buying some vegetables from supermarkets; while the condition of the nation is that not many citizens have ever grown their own vegetables before, so they will curious about planting their own vegetables. If the regional features mentioned above are accurate, this argument will be considerably weakened.
Besides, it is considerably irrational for the author to attribute the interests on growing vegetables solely to the gardening magazines sold out, while he fails to take into account other factors leading to the same result. Perhaps, only magazine in the Village News sell well, because the owner there is kind-hearted; perhaps, people living around the Village News are the farmers and farmers need some advice as it is the time to seed; perhaps the gardening magazine Great Gardens is not on growing vegetables but on planting flowers, and fortunately the local people interests on planting flowers. In addition, it is highly doubtful whether the strategy proposed by the author can prompt the profits. However, the strategy of greatly expanding is unlikely to boost the sales of that company since there is the possibility that people are apathetic about growing their own vegetables, they won't buy the seeds.
To reiterate, the argument of the author is not convincing as it stands, and it is imprudent for the author to claim that people are favor of growing their own vegetables.
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