[a习作temp] argument20 by [728西安]小红莓 [复制链接]

小红莓
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发表于 2009-7-11 18:54:50 |只看该作者 |倒序浏览

今天是真正的模考，大家来拍吧

TOPIC: ARGUMENT20 - The following appeared in a letter to the editor of the Balmer Island Gazette.

"The population of Balmer Island increases to 100,000 during the summer months. To reduce the number of accidents involving mopeds and pedestrians, the town council of Balmer Island should limit the number of mopeds rented by each of the island's six moped and bicycle rental companies from 50 per day to 30 per day during the summer season. By limiting the number of rentals, the town council is sure to attain the 50 percent reduction in moped accidents that was achieved last year in the neighboring island of Torseau, when Torseau's town council enforced similar limits on moped rentals."
WORDS: 419
TIME: 00:29:41
DATE: 2009-7-11 18:48:08

Merely based on several unsound evidences and dubious reasoning, the author of the Balmer Island Gazette concludes that the town council should limit the number of mopeds rented by the island's moped and bicycle rental companies in order to reduce the number of accidents involving moped and pedestrians. To substantiate his conclusion, the author points out that the population of Balmer Island increases to 100,000 during the summer months. The author also cites the fact that the neighboring island of T enforced similar limits on moped rentals and then attained the 50 percent reduction in moped accidents last year. The argument is logically flawed in several critical respects.

To begin with, the evidence that the neighboring island of T enforced similar limits on moped rentals and then attained the 50 percent reduction in moped accidents last year is not enough to support the conclusion. There are many possibilities that may result in the reduction in moped accidents. For example, perhaps the weather of T Island is not very good and people did not go out frequently as usual. Perhaps the government took other measures at that time to reduce the moped accidents and it's the other measure, rather than limiting the moped rentals that works.

Next, the author fails to give detailed information of B Island which may also have influence on the number of moped accidents. Firstly, as we don't know the severity of the hurts of the moped accidents, the author's suggestion may be not necessary to be taken into account. Perhaps people were not hurt seriously in the accident. Secondly, how many people are there in the island in ordinary seasons? If 100,000 is not much larger that usual, the suggestion may be not necessary too. Thirdly, even if the population is really increases largely, if the moped rentals are already not enough to meet the need, how could the suggestion make any sense when the population increases to 100,000?

Furthermore, the author fails to consider the other results if the suggestion takes into action. If the moped rentals are decreased, perhaps more people will buy mopeds themselves and the total number of the mopeds will not decreased. Or perhaps the accidents involving pedestrians and pedestrians will increase. Without ruling out all the other possibilities, the author's conclusion is unreasonable.

To sum up, the argument is unconvincing as it stands. To strengthen it, the author should give more evidence that the suggestion may reduce the number of accidents and no other severe results may caused by it.