0910AW 同主题写作第五期 ARGUMENT65 by iloveusa2009

iloveusa2009UID: 2650557

ARGUMENT65 - The following appeared in a memo from the president of a chain of cheese stores located throughout the United States.
"For many years all the stores in our chain have stocked a wide variety of both domestic and imported cheeses. Last year, however, the five best-selling cheeses at our newest store were all domestic cheddar cheeses from Wisconsin. Furthermore, a recent survey by Cheeses of the World magazine indicates an increasing preference for domestic cheeses among its subscribers. Since our company can reduce expenses by limiting inventory, the best way to improve profits in all of our stores is to discontinue stocking many of our varieties of imported cheese and concentrate primarily on domestic cheeses."


Grounding on the sale records that the five best-selling cheeses of last year were all domestic cheddar cheeses, a recent survey by Cheeses of the World magazine and the intent to improve profits through the way of reducing expenses by bimiting inventory, the author suggests that the cheese store should stop stocking many of their varieties of their imported cheese and concentrate on domestic cheeses. This argument, however, contains several logical flaws which made it unconvincing.

First of all, the fact that the five best-selling cheeses at the newest store were all domestic cheddar cheeses does not indicates that domestic cheeses will be more popular throughout the state. The author shows information only involved cheddar cheese. As we known it is just one type of the demestic chessess. Pehaps, during the same period, other demestic cheeses were in poor sale and the best-sale of cheddar cheese is just result from promote sales, such as discount or prize-giving sales. Without more information about other domestic cheeses' sales record and comparing to the sales of imported cheeses, the author cannot draw any conclusion that the domestic cheeses were popular through last year.  

Secondly, the survey by Cheeses of the World magazine cannot reflect the real demand of the whole customer. The subscribers of the magazine does not equal to the customers who always buy cheese. Pehaps the subscribers are composed of gourmet or cheese manufacturer. Besides, it is entirely possible that the respondents of the survey are people who like domestic cheeses while those who don not like domestic cheeses will refuse to make any responses. Lacking evidence of a sufficiently representative sample, the author cannnot make a convincing argument based on the survey. Even if the survey's respondents are representative, the argument relies on the assumption that those who show preference for domestic cheeses in the survey will surely buy them in fact. Yet the author fails to consider the possibility that the survey maybe contain many leading questions and after replying that the respondents would like to buy imported cheeses as well. Lacking evidence that the respondents' reports were both truthful and meaningful, the arthor cannot draw any conclusion that domestic cheeses will be more popular in the future.

Thirdly, to discontinue stocking imported cheese will not surely lead to a result that the cheese store can improve profits. Even if domestic cheeses were popular through last year and will also be widely sold throughout the states in future, it does not mean that imported cheeses will surely lose their market share and will never bring benefit to the store. Pehaps the profit margin of imported cheeses will be much higher. For that matter, even though the imported cheeses are low sales volume products, they will aslo provide a high profit. In this scenario, it is really worth to expend on stocking imported cheeses. Without more information about the comparing between the inventory cost and the gross profits of imported cheeses, the author cannot justifiably conclude that the store should stop stocking imported cheeses in order to improve profits.

In sum, the author's suggestion is unreasonable as it stands. To strengthen it, the author should provide more information about the sales record of other domestic cheeses during last year and the gross profits of imported cheeses through last few years. To better assess this argument, we would aslo need to know more detail imformation about the personnel component of the Cheeses of the World magazine's subscribers.