ISSUE184 =August Rush=小组第5次作业 by 尾羽

尾羽UID: 2482591

184."It is a grave mistake to theorize before one has data." 184． 在没有数据之前就下结论是大忌

正：有了充足数据，会使结论更加可信，具有说服力。天气预报、法官宣判定罪


反：但在有些领域，并不是一定要有数据做支撑才能得出结论的，比如：艺术、哲学；而有些结论，就是根据经验得出的，比如老猎人打猎


反：某些情况下，过分强调数据的重要性，会阻碍或者限制结论的产生。
（1）数据的归纳和整理通常比较耗时费力
（2）对未知领域的研究，研究人员通常都会在推导出一个正式结论以前，先给出一个hypothesis，再通过对数据和资料来进行严密分析和论证。这不仅非常有效而且值得这样做。

尾羽UID: 2482591

words：532

Is it a blunder to make a theorized deduction without data presented ahead? The answer to the speaker is definitely yes. In my observation, I agree insofar as that data could consolidate the conclusion more credible. However, it is worth considering that whether data is the necessary condition to make theorization.

To begin with, consider the claim that theory has to be made beneath data. Admittedly, I concede that the conclusion would be significantly more cogent which made by theorized deduction with solid fact and abundant objective data. For instance, before the weather bureau reports the forecasts nowadays, our ancient had learned how to predict what a day it would be. A wizard of the tribe would subjectively anticipate the weather in a ceremony according to the experience from the observation of nature phenomenon such as changes in the sky of stars, clouds, or the moon. But this kind of deduction belongs to superstition which should not be trust completely. In order to be more accurate and credible, the way of forecasting has been transmitted and surpassed by the contemporary weather researchers with objective high-tech machines to have more data for analyzing, then predicting.

However, it is not necessary to have data before theory in certain regions deducted. Theory in art might be assorted systematically after the artwork had been accomplished. For instance, Impressionism was a 19th-century art movement that began as a loose association of Paris-based artists exhibiting their art publicly in the 1860s. The name of the movement is derived from the title of a Claude Monet work, Impression, Sunrise. It means that the name of movement (Impressionism) was generated after the Monet’s famous painting which was developed as a theory in the system of the art. And some composers used to create new piece of music in tune by memory rather than writing down in musical notation.

Furthermore, excessively emphasizing the importance of data would be obstacle to delay the process of theorizing. For one thing, in certain theorized researches, because too much expenditure is exhausted on collecting complicated data for analyzing, the program has to halt immediately. For example, the American space agency may not be able to bring the new ARES rockets and the Orion Crew Exploration vehicle online by 2015, as original plans predicted, a new report by the Congressional Budget Office watchdog states. According to the paper, the date could be pushed back to late 2016, under the current funding scheme. The report also shows that numerous other scenarios regarding NASA's budget have predicted that slips in schedule will occur if the money problem is not solved. On the other hand, scientists sometimes announce a hypothesis before the appropriate inference combined with detailed data for avoiding the proposal conclusion to be stillborn. Then, according to the hypothesis, other researchers who supported by efficient funds would continue to explore more thoroughly in the unknown area.

In sum, data is an important factor in the progress of making a systemic theory rather than a requisite. Such as, artworks are usually created by imagination or inspiration of artists. Additionally, data could obstruct the progress of analysis and deduction. Making hypothesis is an alternative option to solve the problem.

wisleUID: 2578616

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