发个帖子过Argument题库，写提纲=August Rush=提纲作业 by Mason.PD

Mason.PDUID: 2592013

太懒了，到现在都没有过完一遍Argument题库啊。。。

发个帖子自己督促自己..


按题号顺序来，一日加一帖！

fight！

草木也知愁UID: 2487572

加油加油

Mason.PDUID: 2592013

1.The following appeared in a memorandum written by the vice president of Nature's Way, a chain of stores selling health food and other health-related products.

"Previous experience has shown that our stores are most profitable in areas where residents are highly concerned with leading healthy lives. We should therefore build our next new store in Plainsville, which has many such residents. Plainsville merchants report that sales of running shoes and exercise clothing are at all-time highs. The local health club, which nearly closed five years ago due to lack of business, has more members than ever, and the weight training and aerobics classes are always full. We can even anticipate a new generation of customers: Plainsville's schoolchildren are required to participate in a 'fitness for life' program, which emphasizes the benefits of regular exercise at an early age."

以前的经验显示，我们的商店在那些居对健康生活高度关注的地区是盈利最多的。因此我们应该把下一家连锁店开设在Plainsville，那里有很多这样的居。Plainsville的商家报告说运动鞋和运动衣的销售处于历史高点。当地一家五年前因缺乏客源而濒临倒闭的康体俱乐部现在的会员比以往任何时候都多，减肥训练和体操班总是满员。我们还可以预见到新生代的顾客群：Plainsville的在校学生被要求参加一个叫做"终生健康"的项目，它强调从小开始经常锻炼的好处。

提纲

作者论据：1.NW在那些居对健康生活高度关注的地区是盈利最多

          2.Plainsville的商家报告说运动鞋和运动衣的销售处于历史高点

          3.当地一家五年前因缺乏客源而濒临倒闭的康体俱乐部现在的会员比以往任何时候都多，减肥训练和体操班总是满员。

          4.新生代的顾客群：Plainsville的在校学生被要求参加一个叫做"终生健康"的项目，它强调从小开始经常锻炼的好处。

作者假设：1。由论据2，3→Plainsville的当地居民对健康生活关注度高→对NW的商品感兴趣

                2。由论据4→新生代顾客群→广阔的销售前景

                3。由假设1，2和论据1→NW应该在Plainsville开设连锁店

错误:1体育运动和健康食品的错误类比

        2现在情况和将来前景的盲目估计

        3没有考虑其他可能影响NW利益的可能。成本？对手？政策？

2.The following appeared in a letter sent by a committee of homeowners from the Deerhaven Acres to all homeowners in Deerhaven Acres.

"Seven years ago, homeowners in nearby Brookville community adopted a set of restrictions on how the community's yards should be landscaped and what colors the exteriors of homes should be painted. Since then, average property values have tripled in Brookville. In order to raise property values in Deerhaven Acres, we should adopt our own set of restrictions on landscaping and housepainting."

七年前，附近的Brookville社区的业主实施了一系列关于该社区的庭院应如何布置以及房屋应涂何种颜色的规定。从那以后，Brookville的地产平均价格翻了三番。为使Deerhaven Acres的地产升值，我们也应该对于景观和房屋涂色实施自己的规定。

提纲：
作者依据：1七年前，附近的Brookville社区的业主实施了一系列关于该社区的庭院应如何布置以及房屋应涂何种颜色的规定
         2Brookville地产价格翻三番


作者假设：1Brookville的庭院应如何布置以及房屋应涂何种颜色的规定→价格翻三番
          2七年前→如今的情况相同
          3Brookville的情况→Deerhaven Acres情况相同

3.The following appeared in a newspaper article about law firms in the city of Megalopolis.

"In Megalopolis, the number of law school graduates who went to work for large, corporate firms declined by 15 percent over the last three years, whereas an increasing number of graduates took jobs at small, general practice firms. Even though large firms usually offer much higher salaries, law school graduates are choosing to work for the smaller firms most likely because they experience greater job satisfaction at smaller firms. In a survey of first-year students at a leading law school, most agreed with the statement that earning a high salary was less important to them than job satisfaction. This finding suggests that the large, corporate firms of Megalopolis will need to offer graduates more benefits and incentives and reduce the number of hours they must work."

在Megalopolis，过去三年间在大型合伙事务所就职的法学院毕业生数量下降了15％，而在小型，一般性事务所就职的毕业生数量则在增加。尽管大型事务所通常提供高的多的薪水，法学院毕业生选择在小型事务所工作主要是因为他们感受到更高的工作满足感。一项对于顶尖法学院一年级学生的调查显示，多数人同意挣更多的钱没有工作满足感更重要的说法。这一现象启示我们，Megalopolis的大型合伙事务所应该给毕业生提供更多的福利和激励，并减少他们的工作时间。

提纲：

作者论据：1Megalopolis，过去三年间在大型合伙事务所就职的法学院毕业生数量下降了15％，而在小型，一般性事务所就职的毕业生数量则在增加

          2大型事务所通常提供高的多的薪水

          3一项对于顶尖法学院一年级学生的调查显示，多数人同意挣更多的钱没有工作满足感更重要的说法。

作者假设：1.大公司就职人员下降，小公司人员上升→仅仅是因为job satisfaction

          2.论据3中的一年级新生→全部的法学生的vocational goal

          3.论据2→选择小公司仅仅因为job satisfaction

          4.job satisfaction=more benefits and incentives和decreasing working hour

4.The following was posted on an Internet real estate discussion site.

"Of the two leading real estate firms in our town-Adams Realty and Fitch Realty-Adams is clearly superior. Adams has 40 real estate agents. In contrast, Fitch has 25, many of whom work only part-time. Moreover, Adams' revenue last year was twice as high as that of Fitch, and included home sales that averaged $168,000, compared to Fitch's $144,000. Homes listed with Adams sell faster as well: ten years ago, I listed my home with Fitch and it took more than four months to sell; last year, when I sold another home, I listed it with Adams, and it took only one month. Thus, if you want to sell your home quickly and at a good price, you should use Adams."

在本市的两家最大的房地产经纪公司--Adams Realty和Fitch Realty--之中，Adams显然更优秀一些。Adams有40名房地产经纪人，而Fitch只有25个，且很多是兼职工作。而且，Adams去年的收入是Fitch的两倍，其平均房价为$168000，而Fitch仅为$144000。在Adams销售的房屋卖得也更快：十年前，我把我的房产交给Fitch，它用了四个多月才卖出去；去年，我在Adams卖了另一处房产，仅用一个月就售出了。因此，要想让你的房产卖的更快更好，你应该选择Adams。

提纲

作者论据：1.AR40的经纪人 FR只有25个且有不少兼职

          2.Adams去年的收入是Fitch的两倍，其平均房价为$168000，而Fitch仅为$144000

                3.十年前，我把我的房产交给Fitch，它用了四个多月才卖出去；去年，我在Adams卖了另一处房产，仅用一个月就售出了

作者的假设：1论据1→地产经纪人数和地产经纪公司的质量成比例

            2论据2→一年的选择性样本→AR公司更加优秀（服务的区域？销售数量？效率=销售额？）

            3论据3→AR公司效率高（不同时间可能会有迥异的因素影响）

5.The following appeared in the business section of a newspaper.

"Given that the number of people in our country with some form of arthritis is expected to rise from 40 million to 60 million over the next

twenty years, pharmaceutical companies that produce drugs for the treatment of arthritis should be very profitable. Many analysts believe

that in ten years Becton Pharmaceuticals, which makes Xenon, the best-selling drug treatment for arthritis, will be the most profitable

pharmaceutical company. But the patent on Xenon expires in three years, and other companies will then be able to produce a cheaper version of the drug. Thus, it is more likely that in ten years the most profitable pharmaceutical company will be Perkins Pharmaceuticals, maker of a new drug called Xylan, which clinical studies show is preferred over Xenon by seven out of ten patients suffering from the most extreme cases of arthritis."

鉴于我国在未来20年中患某种形式关节炎的人数预计将从4千万上升至6千万，生产治疗关节炎药物的制药公司将获得巨大利润。很多分析家相信，生产最畅销关节炎药物Xenon的Becton Pharmaceuticals将会在十年后成为利润最高的制药公司。但Xenon的专利在三年内就要到期了，到时其他公司将能够生产该药的廉价版。因此，十年后利润最高的公司更有可能是Perkins Pharmaceuticals，该公司生产一种叫做Xylan的新药，临床调查表明在患最严重关节炎的患者中10个有7个倾向于Xylan而不是Xenon。

作者的假设：
1.人数上升→公司获得巨大利润（是否导致更加fierce competition？）
2.Xenon的专利在三年内就要到期了→Becton利润将会下降（是否考虑market seniority？）
3.严重关节炎的患者中10个有7个倾向于Xylan而不是Xenon→Perkins必将利润最高（the most extreme cases 占总人数的proportion？）

Mason.PDUID: 2592013

昨天只懒懒的写了5个。。。不行不行，速度太慢了。。。

Mason.PDUID: 2592013

6.The following was written as a part of an application for a small business loan by a group of developers in the city of Monroe.

"A jazz music club in Monroe would be a tremendously profitable enterprise. Currently, the nearest jazz club is 65 miles away; thus, our

proposed club, the C Note, would have the local market all to itself. Plus, jazz is extremely popular in Monroe: over 100,000 people attended

Monroe's jazz festival last summer, several well-known jazz musicians live in Monroe, and the highest-rated radio program in Monroe is 'Jazz

Nightly,' which airs every weeknight. Finally, a nationwide study indicates that the typical jazz fan spends close to $1,000 per year on

jazz entertainment. It is clear that the C Note cannot help but make money."

在Monroe建立爵士乐俱乐部将会是非常盈利的产业。当前，最近的爵士俱乐部也在65英里以外；因此，我们筹建的俱乐部C

Note将会占有全部的本地市场。而且，爵士乐在Monroe非常流行：去年夏天10万多人参加了Monroe的爵士音乐节，若干知名爵士音乐家居住在Monroe，Monroe获评价最高的广播节目是平时每天播出的Jazz Nightly。最后，一项全国性研究表明典型的爵士爱好者每年花费近1000元用于爵士娱乐。显然C Note将会。

作者的假设

1.音乐节人多→爵士乐在M地流行（也许是外地的jazz爱好者？）

2.电台评价最高jazz节目→jazz流行（评价高=关注度高？节目本身质量好？）

3.很多jazz音乐家居住在M→jazz流行（有必然因果关系么？）

4.M没有本地的jazz club→C note将占有全部市场份额（万一原来就没有多少市场份额？）

5.jazz流行+C note占全部份额+全国性花费高→C note盈利（全国性数据不能说明M人也肯花这个钱）

7.The following appeared in a letter to the editor of the Clearview newspaper.

"In the next mayoral election, residents of Clearview should vote for Ann Green, who is a member of the Good Earth Coalition, rather than for Frank Braun, a member of the Clearview town council, because the current members are not protecting our environment. For example, during the past year the number of factories in Clearview has doubled, air pollution levels have increased, and the local hospital has treated 25 percent more patients with respiratory illnesses. If we elect Ann Green, the environmental problems in Clearview will certainly be solved."

在下一次市长选举中，Clearview的市应投Good Earth Coalition成员Ann Green的票，而不是Clearview市委成员Frank Braun，因为当前的市委成员没有保护我们的环境。举例来说，去年Clearview的工厂数量翻了一番，空气污染水平增加了，而且当地医院因呼吸道疾病就诊的数量增加了25％。如果我们选举Ann Green，Clearview的环境问题肯定将被解决。

作者的假设
1.工厂数量翻番+空气污染水平增加+呼吸道疾病就诊数量提高→环境污染加重（工厂的数量必然能和环境污染扯上关系吗？呼吸道疾病也许和个人体质有关）
2.FB是市委委员→FB没有保护环境（FB可能没有参与任何有关治理环境决策的制定）
3.AG是Good Earth Coalition成员→Clearview的环境问题肯定将被解决(可能AG并不愿意投入政府资金去治理环境，或者更可能因为缺乏经验而难以解决问题)

8.The following appeared in a memorandum issued by the strategic planning department at Omni Inc.

"Mesa Foods, a manufacturer of snack foods that currently markets its products within a relatively small region of the country, has strong

growth potential. Mesa enjoyed a 20 percent increase in profits last year, and its best-selling product, Diabolique Salsa, has had increased sales over each of the past three years. Since Omni Inc. is interested in reaching 14-to-25 year olds, the age group that consumes the most snack food, we should buy Mesa Foods, and concentrate in particular on marketing Diabolique Salsa throughout the country."

Mesa Foods，一家当前仅在本国相对较小区域销售其产品的快餐食品生产商，具有很强的增长潜力。去年Mesa的利润上升了20％，其最畅销产品Diabolique Salsa连续三年销量增加。由于Omni Inc对14－25岁这一消费快餐食品最多的年龄群体感兴趣，我们应该收购Mesa Foods，并集中力量在全国推广Diabolique Salsa。

作者假设
1.mesa快餐是否对14-25具有吸引力？→收购Mesa Foods
2.相对较小区域的受众→全国范围的流行？
3.连续三年的增加→往后持续的增加？
4.收购Mesa Foods是否是一项营利行为？→其他因素？

9.The following appeared in a memorandum from a dean at Omega University.

"Fifteen years ago, Omega University implemented a new procedure that encouraged students to evaluate the teaching effectiveness of all their professors. Since that time, Omega professors have begun to assign higher grades in their classes, and overall student grade averages at Omega have risen by thirty percent. Potential employers apparently believe the grades at Omega are inflated; this would explain why Omega graduates have not been as successful at getting jobs as have graduates from nearby Alpha University. To enable its graduates to secure better jobs, Omega University should now terminate student evaluation of professors."

15年前，Omega大学实施了一项新措施，鼓励学生对所有教授的教学效果进行评价。从那以后，Omega的教授开始给予学生更高的分数，Omega的学生成绩总平均上升了30％。未来的雇主显然认为Omega的分数贬值了；这可以解释为什么Omega的毕业生找工作时没有邻近的Alpha大学毕业生成。为使Omega毕业生找到好工作，我们应立即停止学生对教授的评价。

作者假设破绽

1.教师评测是否和教授开始打高分有关？

2.Omega的毕业生找工作时没有邻近的Alpha大学毕业生成功→未来的雇主认为Omega的分数贬值

3.停止教授评价→毕业生找到好工作（其它影响找工作的原因？能否体现分数价值？）

4.评价的好处是否没有考虑？

10.The following appeared in a letter to the editor of a Batavia newspaper.

"The department of agriculture in Batavia reports that the number of dairy farms throughout the country is now 25 percent greater than it was 10 years ago. During this same time period, however, the price of milk at the local Excello Food Market has increased from $1.50 to over $3.00 per gallon. To prevent farmers from continuing to receive excessive profits on an apparently increased supply of milk, the Batavia government should begin to regulate retail milk prices. Such regulation is necessary to ensure both lower prices and an adequate supply of milk for consumers."

Batavia的农业部门报告说全国奶牛农庄的数量比10年前增加了25％。然而就在同一时期，当地Excello Food Market牛奶的价格从每加仑$1.5上涨到了$3.0。为防止农场主在牛奶供应量明显增加的情况下获取过多的利润，Batavia的政府应限制牛奶的零售价。这种限价对于保证更低的牛奶价格和充足的供应是必需的。

作者假设的破绽

1.全国奶牛农庄的数量增长→B地区的数量增长

2.农庄数量→牛奶供应量

3。价格上涨→利润增加？（成本？）

4.充足的供应→这样的限制和规定能够提供低价供应量充足的牛奶？

11.The following appeared in a memo from the mayor of the town of West Egg.

"Two years ago, our consultants predicted that West Egg's landfill, which is used for garbage disposal, would be completely filled within five years. During the past two years, however, town residents have been recycling twice as much aluminum and paper as they did in previous years. Next month the amount of material recycled should further increase, since charges for garbage pickup will double. Furthermore, over ninety percent of the respondents to a recent survey said that they would do more recycling in the future. Because of our residents' strong commitment to recycling, the available space in our landfill should last for considerably longer than predicted."

两年前，我们的顾问预言West Egg用于投放垃圾的填埋地将在五年内完全充满。然而在过去两年间，市对于铝和纸张的循环再生的数量比以前翻了一番。由于垃圾收集的数量在下个月将会加倍，循环再生的材料数量将进一步增加。而且，最近一次调查超过90％的回应者表示他们将会在未来做更多的循环再生工作。由于居对循环再生的有力支持，我们填埋地可利用空间的使用时间将比预期的长得多。

作者的假设破绽
1.数量比以前翻了一番→减少垃圾填埋总量？
2.下月加倍垃圾收费→垃圾回收量加大？
3.90%的调查→总量呢？
4.利用时间长→垃圾总量的变化？

12.The following appeared in a memo from a vice president of Alta Manufacturing.

"During the past year, Alta Manufacturing had thirty percent more on-the-job accidents than nearby Panoply Industries, where the work shifts are one hour shorter than ours. Experts believe that a significant contributing factor in many on-the-job accidents is fatigue and sleep deprivation among workers. Therefore, to reduce the number of on-the-job accidents at Alta and thereby increase productivity, we should shorten each of our three work shifts by one hour so that our employees will get adequate amounts of sleep."

在过去，Alta工厂的工伤事故比邻近的Panoply工厂多30％，Panoply的每班工作时间比我们的短一个小时。专家相信导致很多工伤事故的重要因素就是工人的疲劳和睡眠不足。因此，为减少Alta的工伤事故数量并提高生产数量，我们应该把我们的三个班次的工作时间每个都减少一小时，从而我们的雇员将有更充足的睡眠。

作者假设的破绽

1.Alta公司和Panoply公司是否具有可比性？

2.减少Alta的工伤事故数量→疲劳睡眠不足引起？

3.减少工作小时→提高工作效率？

Mason.PDUID: 2592013

继续磨蹭我的提纲。。。

Mason.PDUID: 2592013

13.The following appeared in a memo from the chief executive of a video game company.

"We have recently been offered the opportunity to buy the rights to produce a video game based on the soon-to-be-published children's book "Squirrel Power," by Peter Wood. While the cost of the rights is substantial and will place economic constraints on our company in the short-term, there are two reasons that the purchase of these rights will undoubtedly be a wise investment. First, Wood's last three books have been best sellers and the movie based on his first book was highly profitable. Second, the popular characters and story line in "Squirrel Power" will save us time in developing our video game, thereby reducing our costs."

我们最近获得了购买一个游戏的生产权的机会，该游戏基于即将出版的由Peter Wood所写的儿童文学《松鼠力量》。尽管购买该生产权的代价比较高昂并将会给本公司的财政造成短期的压力，但我们有两个理由认为购买该生产权无疑是一项明智的投资。首先，Wood的前三本书非常畅销，基于他第一本书改编的电影获得了很高的盈利。其次，《松鼠力量》中受人欢迎的角色和情节将节省我们制作游戏所用的时间，从而节约我们的成本。

作者假设的破绽
1.电影成功→游戏成功
2.节约成本能否抵消版权费用？
3.其他影响收益的因素是否考虑？
4.松鼠力量是不是一本会受欢迎的儿童文学作品·？

14.The following appeared in a memo from the owner of Green Thumb Gardening Center, a small business serving a suburban town.

"There is evidence that consumers are becoming more and more interested in growing their own vegetables. A national survey conducted last month indicated that many consumers were dissatisfied with the quality of fresh vegetables available in supermarkets. And locally, the gardening magazine Great Gardens has sold out at the Village News stand three months in a row. Thus, we at Green Thumb Gardening Center can increase our profits by greatly expanding the variety of vegetable seeds we stock for gardeners this coming spring."

有证据表明消费者对于自己种植蔬菜越来越感兴趣。上个月举行的一项国家调查显示很多消费者对于超市上供应的新鲜蔬菜的质量不满意。在本地，园艺杂志《大花园》在"Village News"报亭连续三个月售磬。因此，我们Green Thumb Gardening Center可以通过大量增加今春为园艺爱好者准备的蔬菜种子的种类而增加盈利。

作者的假设破绽
1.国家调查→suburban town可以表示不满意吗？
2.杂志售罄代表消费者想自己种植蔬菜么？也许只是关心观赏植物（omamental plant）
3.增加蔬菜种子种类所花去的成本能带来收益么？（如果本地居民只喜欢种植少数几个种类的蔬菜，增加种子的多样性是不会盈利的。）

15.The following appeared in a newsletter offering advice to investors.

"Over 80 percent of the respondents to a recent survey indicated a desire to reduce their intake of foods containing fats and cholesterol, and today low-fat products abound in many food stores. Since many of the food products currently marketed by Old Dairy Industries are high in fat and cholesterol, the company's sales are likely to diminish greatly and their profits will no doubt decrease. We therefore advise Old Dairy stockholders to sell their shares and other investors not to purchase stock in this company."

最近一次调查中超过80％的回应者表达了他们想减少含脂肪和胆固醇的食品的愿望，现在很多食品商店都提供丰富的低脂肪食品。由于Old Dairy Industries当前生产的很多产品都有很高的脂肪和胆固醇含量，该公司的销量有可能严重下降，其盈利无疑会减少。因而我们建议Old Dairy的贡持有者抛出他们所持的股份，其他投资者也不应购买该公司的股份。

作者假设的破绽：

1.愿望不代表行为，提供低脂肪食品不代表销售情况好

2.很多产品不代表全部产品，不能说销量会严重下降

3.股份不仅和盈利有关，也和市场政策，经济环境有关

16.The following appeared in a letter to the editor of a local newspaper from a citizen of the state of Impecunia.

"Two years ago our neighboring state, Lucria, began a state lottery to supplement tax revenues for education and public health. Today, Lucria spends more per pupil than we do, and Lucria's public health program treats far more people than our state's program does. If we were to establish a state lottery like the one in Lucria, the profits could be used to improve our educational system and public health program. The new lottery would doubtless be successful, because a survey conducted in our capital city concludes that citizens of Impecunia already spend an average of $50 per person per year on gambling."

两年前我们相邻的州Lucria开展了州际彩票活动来增加用于教育和公共医疗的财政收入。现在，Lucria对于每个小学生的平均开支比我们多，Lucria的公共医疗体系接待的人数也比我们的多很多。如果我们也建立一套和Lucria类似的彩票系统，其盈利可以被用来改我们的教育系统和公共医疗体系。新的彩票无疑会成，因为在我们的首府举办的一次调查显示Impecuni的居每人每年用于博彩的平均支出已经达到$50。

作者假设破绽

1.小学生平均开支和公共医疗人数增多不一定是彩票活动的结果，更不能说明他是否盈利

2.capital city的情况不能说明Impecuni 整个state的情况

3.类似的彩票系统是否会盈利？$50或许是极限，彩民不愿意再加投资

17.The following appeared in a letter to the editor of the Walnut Grove town newspaper.

"Walnut Grove's town council has advocated switching from EZ Disposal (which has had the contract for trash collection services in Walnut Grove for the past ten years) to ABC Waste, because EZ recently raised its monthly fee from $2,000 to $2,500 a month, whereas ABC's fee is still $2,000. But the town council is mistaken; we should continue using EZ. EZ collects trash twice a week, while ABC collects only once. Moreover, EZ-which, like ABC, currently has a fleet of 20 trucks-has ordered additional trucks. Finally, EZ provides exceptional service: 80 percent of respondents to last year's town survey agreed that they were 'satisfied' with EZ's performance."

Walnut Grove的市委提议选择ABC Waste，而不是EZ Disposal（它是过去十年中和Walnut Grove签约提供垃圾收集服务的机构），因为EZ最近把他们每月的收费从$2000提高到了$2500，而ABC仍然是$2000。但市委是错误的，我们应该继续使用EZ。EZ每周收集两次垃圾，而ABC只收集一次。而且，EZ当前的卡车拥有量和ABC一样都是20辆，但它已定购了更多的车辆。最后，EZ还提供优越的服务：去年市镇调查中80％的回应者同意他们对于EZ的表现是"满意"的。

作者假设的破绽：

1.EZ一周为什么要收集2次垃圾？收集次数多代表服务质量高么？还是仅仅是涨价的理由？

2.定购的车辆用途？

3.ABC在调查中的满意度未知

4.为什么要涨价$500？难道仅仅是因为收集2次？那么500是个合理的数字么？

18.The following appeared in an editorial in a Prunty County newspaper.

"In an attempt to improve highway safety, Prunty County recently lowered its speed limit from 55 miles per hour to 45 on all major county roads. But the 55 mph limit should be restored, because this safety effort has failed. Most drivers are exceeding the new speed limit and the accident rate throughout Prunty County has decreased only slightly. If we want to improve the safety of our roads, we should instead undertake the same kind of road improvement project that Butler County completed five years ago: increasing lane widths and resurfacing rough roads. Today, major Butler County roads still have a 55 mph speed limit, yet there were 25 percent fewer reported accidents in Butler County this past year than there were five years ago."

为提高高速公路的安全性，Prunty County最近把镇上所有主要路段的最高限速从55mph降到了45。但我们应该回复到55mph的限速，因为这种保障安全的努力已经失败了。多数司机都超过了新的限速，而且Prunty County全镇的事故率仅有微量下降。如果我们要提高公路安全性，我们应该采取Butler County在5年前完成的同样的道路改计划：增加车道宽度和重新铺装不平整路面。现在，Butler County的主要道路仍然使用55mph限速，而那里近年间上报的事故发生率比五年前减少了25％。

作者假设的破绽：
1.短期内得出的结论不可靠，可能需要司机不知道新法规。
2.只是主要路段降速，发生事故的地点也许在小路段。（1 2调换顺序）
3.BC55限速是否不影响公路安全性？可能是法规严厉，公民交通意识强，正负抵消
4.道路改造是否减少了事故发生率？PC是否同样适合该改造计划？

19.The following appeared in a letter from the manager of a rock band named Double Rice.

"One year ago, tickets for Double Rice's concerts in stadiums around the country took, on average, at least 24 hours to sell out, if they sold out at all. But the band has been enjoying a surge in nationwide popularity among 14 to 25 year olds, and the 30,000 tickets for a recent concert in Megalopolis sold out in 12 minutes. Clearly the ticket sales in Megalopolis are a result both of the band's increased popularity and of the advertising campaign run in Megalopolis by the Ad Lib advertising agency. Thus, in order to ensure that the band's success in Megalopolis is repeated across the country, the band should hire Ad Lib to duplicate the Megalopolis ad campaign on a nationwide scale."

一年前，Double Rice在全国体育场举行的音乐会门票如果能卖完的话，也平均至少需要24小时。但乐队最近经历了一次14－25岁人群的全国性支持风潮，最近在Megalopolis的一次音乐会门票在12分钟内就售完了。显然Megalopolis的门票热销得益于乐队日益增加的人气度和由Ad Lib广告公司在Megalopolis所作的广告宣传。因此，为保证乐队在Megalopolis的成能够在全国再现，乐队应雇佣Ad Lib在全国范围内重复他们在Megalopolis所作的广告宣传。

1.全国的销售情况→M地的销售情况

2.没有任何证据说明门票热销和AL广告公司有关

3.AL广告公司的成功是否具有地域性？

Mason.PDUID: 2592013

继续加贴，继续过。。
发现自己好久没来这了。
罪过罪过

Mason.PDUID: 2592013

20.The following appeared in a letter to the editor of the Balmer Island Gazette.

"The population of Balmer Island increases to 100,000 duing the summer months. To reduce the number of accidents involving mopeds and pedestrians, the town council of Balmer Island should limit the number of mopeds rented by each of the island's six moped and bicycle rental companies from 50 per day to 30 per day during the summer season. By limiting the number of rentals, the town council is sure to attain the 50 percent reduction in moped accidents that was achieved last year in the neighboring island of Torseau, when Torseau's town council enforced similar limits on moped rentals."

Balmer Island的人口在夏季达到了100000。为减少由助力车和行人引发的事故，Balmer Island市委应把本岛六个助力车和自行车出租公司的助力车出租数量在夏季从每天50辆限制到每天30辆。通过限制出租数量，市委肯定能够实现助力车事故减少50％的目标，就像去年邻岛Torseau市委实施了类似的对于助力车出租的限制后所达到的那样。

作者假设的破绽：
1.限制数量不一定降低事故
2.BI和TI能否类比。人口，限制数量，出租公司数量
3.能否减少50%

21.The following appeared in a memo from the new vice president of Sartorian, a company that manufactures men's clothing.

"Five years ago, at a time when we had difficulties in obtaining reliable supplies of high-quality wool fabric, we discontinued production of our deluxe alpaca overcoats. Now that we have a new fabric supplier, we should resume production. This coat should sell very well: since we have not offered an alpaca overcoat for five years and since our major competitor no longer makes an alpaca overcoat, there will be pent-up customer demand. Also, since the price of most types of clothing has risen in each of the past five years, customers should be willing to pay significantly higher prices for alpaca overcoats than they did five years ago, and our company profits will increase."

五年前，当我们在获取可靠的高质量羊毛毛料的渠道方面存在困难的时候，我们停止了高档羊毛外衣的生产。现在有了新的毛料供应商，我们应该重新开始生产。这种外衣应该卖得很好：因为我们已经五年没有供应羊毛外衣了，而且由于我们的主要竞争对手已不再生产羊毛外衣，消费者将有很迫切的需求。而且，由于过去五年中多数种类的服装价格每年都在上涨，消费者应该愿意花比五年前高的多的价格购买羊毛外衣，从而我们公司的利润将会上升。

1.有生产不一定有需求
2.没有证据说明消费者愿意高消费
3.利润能否上升的多个影响因素，5年的变化

22.The following appeared in a memo from the president of a company that builds and sells new homes in Steel City.

"Over the past five years, the population of Steel City has increased by more than 20 percent, and family incomes in Steel City have risen much faster than the national average. Nationwide, sales of houses priced above $150,000 have increased more than have sales of lower-priced houses. Such data indicate that we should make changes in our business to increase company profits. First, we should build fewer low-priced houses than we did last year and focus instead on building houses designed to sell at above $150,000. Second, we should hire additional workers so that we can build a larger total number of houses than we did last year."

过去五年中，Steel City的人口增加超过了20％，家庭收入的上涨比全国平均水平快的多。在全国范围，房价在$150000以上的房产销量的增长比低价房产要多。这些数据显示我们的业务应该进行一些变革来增加利润。首先，我们所建设的低价位房产应该比去年少，而集中力量建设房价在$150000以上的房产。其次，我们应该雇佣更多的工人从而保证我们能够比去年建设更多的房屋。

1、Steel城市的人口增长和收入高并不意味着这里的人愿意购买高价房子

2、此外，全国购买高价房的人增加也不一定意味着Steel城市里的人也愿意购买高价房

3、此外，作者忽略了其他因素：比如，全国高价房的销售量增长比低价房高并不说明目前市场的情况，可能高价房的市场本来就小，而低价房的销量本来很大。还有，Steel城市居民目前所拥有的房子数量和类型

23.A recent sales study indicated that consumption of seafood dishes in Bay City restaurants has increased by 30 percent over the past five years. Yet there are no currently operating city restaurants that specialize in seafood. Moreover, the majority of families in Bay City are two-income families, and a nationwide study has shown that such families eat significantly fewer home-cooked meals than they did a decade ago but at the same time express more concern about eating healthily. Therefore, a new Bay City restaurant specializing in seafood will be quite popular and profitable.

最近的销量调查显示Bay City餐馆的海鲜菜肴的消费量比过去五年增加了30％。而现在该市还没有专门经营海鲜菜的餐厅。而且，Bay City的大多数家庭是双收入家庭，一次国家调查显示这类家庭在家做饭的数量比十年前显著减少，同时他们更关注健康饮食。因此，在Bay City开设一家新的专营海鲜食品的餐馆将会非常受欢迎而且有利可图。

1.最近的海鲜食品的需求比去年上升30%并不意味着海鲜食物的市场变得很大（别的类型餐馆的情况~~）

2.全国对于双收入家庭的调查并不意味着Bar City同样适用(而且他们不愿意在家里吃也不代表他们愿意出去吃的是海鲜~~）

3.作者同样忽略了其他因素：比如Bar City当地的餐厅数量很多而且对于海鲜食品的供应是否已经足够丰富；或者是否Bar City的居民的饮食习惯

4.利润

24.The following appeared in a memo from the president of Viva-Tech, a manufacturer of high-tech medical equipment.

"In order to reduce costs, we should close some of our existing small assembly plants and build a large central plant. Grandview would be an ideal location for this new plant. First, of the locations that we have considered, Grandview has the largest adult population, so that we will be able to staff our plant quickly and easily. Second, since the average wage earned by workers in Grandview is less than that in the other locations, we should be able to keep production costs low. Last, as an inducement for us to build there, Grandview's town council has offered to allow us to operate for the first three years without paying city taxes."

为节约成本，我们应该关闭一些现有的小型组装车间而建设一个大型核心厂房。Grandview可能是这个新厂房建设的理想位置。首先，在我们所考虑过的地区中，Grandview拥有最大的成年人口，因此我们可以很快很轻易地招收到工作人员。其次，由于Grandview工人的平均收入比其他地区低，我们能够把生产成本压低。最后，我们在那里建厂的诱因之一就是Grandview的市委允许我们运营的头三年可以免付城市税。

1没有证据证明建设大厂房能节约成本。若重新修建大规模的建筑反而要费更多的资金呢？
2成年人口多不代表有能够胜任高科技工作的人多。人口的素质若低呢，老年人若是很多呢？
3平均收入低不代表在该高新技术企业工资也低。而且生产成本取决于其他很多因素：若是其他费用例如材料、运输、广告费很高呢？
4若是其他城市也提供免税待遇，可能比G更优厚，持续时间更久呢？

25.The following appeared in a memo from the mayor of the town of Hopewell.

"Two years ago, the town of Ocean View built a new municipal golf course and resort hotel. During the past two years, tourism in Ocean View has increased, new businesses have opened there, and Ocean View's tax revenues have risen by 30 percent. The best way to improve Hopewell's economy, and generate additional tax revenues, is to build a golf course and resort hotel similar to those in Ocean View."

两年前Ocean View建造了一个新的市立高尔夫球场和度假旅馆。过去两年中，Ocean View的旅客增加了，开设了很多新的商业，而且税收增加了30％。改Hopewell的经济，产生更多税收的最好途径就是建立一个和Ocean View类似的高尔夫球场和度假旅馆。

cool1580UID: 2646378

貌似 停止了~~~~~····

Mason.PDUID: 2592013

貌似 停止了~~~~~····
cool1580 发表于 2009-8-14 23:02

偷懒了。。。不想把提纲全都贴上来了。。。

Mason.PDUID: 2592013

我错了。。。这个就当是警示自我吧。。
我还是个懒虫。。。

wisleUID: 2578616

过题库还是很需要勇气和坚持下去的毅力
加油
==b我只看了高频的一些

sunny球UID: 2693880

12# Mason.PD
复习不下去时真的要过来看看，太有动力了，呵呵~

ringtailbunnyUID: 2579853

昨天和今天看了60道题，想吐了。。那种逻辑不连贯的东西看得真恶心。