【kaleidoscope】第七次作业 ISSUE184 by wdassfm

wdassfmUID: 2542447

昨天发烧了，作业还在补，改的同学和要被我改的同学表着急哈~

184. "It is a grave mistake to theorize before one has data."

Is it necessary for us to collect enough data and keep clear records before a theory was drawn? While some tends to claim that certain phenomena are just so patent that effect made to gather data is merely a waste, I retain my view to agree with the speaker to a large extent that most of time a well-established and practical theorized should be based on the firm foundation of data.

Though many principles and laws seem self-evident, a theory curtly established from the surface might be wrong for the ostentations can be deceiving. For instance, common sense tell us that men are in average stronger than women, many people therefore conclude that men are prone to enjoy a longer life than women. Yet the data of a universal survey reveal to us that the average term of men is 63.3 while women's is 67.6. This illustrate that data is necessary to remove the veil of established knowledge placed on people's understanding.

In addition, since many theories are established with the intention to generalize the effect of a certain action and to do prediction on its future usage, statistics then plays the vital role to prevent people's tendency of jumping to a conclusion, the consequence of which can be destructive. For example, because a particular field is treated with a certain kind of fertilizer and the crop there grows bigger than before, the farmer may feel inclined to generalize that if other fields be treated with the same method they will also be more productive, or predict the continue fertilizing of the very field ensures the harvest in the next year. However, to theorize on the base of experience without include statistic thinking of other interfering factors (such as the weather, prevailing of disease, type of soil and so forth) can cause the undue reliance of this fertilizer, which, rather than guarantee a good income in the future, might even results in the farmer's bankrupt.

While the establishment of a theory needs overall thinking and specific statistics, the credibility of a theory should be substantiated, again, with the data of practicing. For one reason, the experimental condition can be quiet different of the practical condition. In the field of pharmacology, popularizing a certain medicine without data of one year or two showing the effect on human being can cause serious misuse and unpredictable side effect. For another reason, the limits of many theories should also be tested clearly with relating data in order to prevent mistakes of undue use beyond its boundary.

Yet the necessity of data should never be overemphasized, and the profession of philosophy can serve as an exception because its particular way though which it has been established: consistent logical thinking as well as the foundation of other well-established subjects. For instance, Metaphysics involves history and sociology, while aesthetics depends largely on psychology. As theories in these fields mostly matured, the request of rudimental data makes little sense.

As discussed above, data promotes people to think thoroughly when establishing a theory and be more responsible to consider the possible consequence before the theory is published to the mass; otherwise, no one could imagine the unpredictable disaster brought about by an undue theory.

网兜妮妮UID: 2612538

Is it necessary for us to collect enough data and keep clear records before a theory was drawn? While some tends to claim that certain phenomena are just so patent that effect made （？）to gather data is merely a waste, I retain my view to agree with the speaker to a large extent that most of time a well-established and practical theorized should be based on the firm foundation of data.

Though many principles and laws seem self-evident, a theory curtly established from the surface might be wrong for the ostentations can be deceiving. For instance, common sense tell us that men are in average stronger than women, many people therefore conclude that men are prone to enjoy a longer life than women. Yet the data of a universal survey reveal to us that the average term of men is 63.3 while women's is 67.6. This illustrate that data is necessary to remove the veil of established knowledge placed on people's understanding.

In addition, since many theories are established with the intention to generalize the effect of a certain action and to do prediction on its future usage, statistics then plays the vital role to prevent people's tendency of jumping to a conclusion, the consequence of which can be destructive. For example, because a particular field is treated with a certain kind of fertilizer and the crop there grows bigger than before, the farmer may feel inclined to generalize that if other fields be treated with the same method they will also be more productive, or predict the continue fertilizing of the very field ensures the harvest in the next year. However, to theorize on the base of experience without include statistic thinking of other interfering factors (such as the weather, prevailing of disease, type of soil and so forth) can cause the undue reliance of this fertilizer, which, rather than guarantee a good income in the future, might even results in the farmer's bankrupt.（感觉例子的说服力不太够。然后这段有点绕，不是很明白，纯属个人感觉~）

While the establishment of a theory needs overall thinking and specific statistics, the credibility of a theory should be substantiated, again, with the data of practicing. For one reason, the experimental condition can be quiet different of the practical condition. In the field of pharmacology, popularizing a certain medicine without data of one year or two showing the effect on human being can cause serious misuse and unpredictable side effect. For another reason, the limits of many theories should also be tested clearly with relating data in order to prevent mistakes of undue use beyond its boundary.（觉得这一点很好，但论证不够充分）

Yet the necessity of data should never be overemphasized, and the profession of philosophy can serve as an exception because its particular way though which it has been established: consistent logical thinking as well as the foundation of other well-established subjects. For instance, Metaphysics involves history and sociology, while aesthetics depends largely on psychology. （这个例子有点晕）As theories in these fields mostly matured, the request of rudimental data makes little sense.

As discussed above, data promotes people to think thoroughly when establishing a theory and be more responsible to consider the possible consequence before the theory is published to the mass; otherwise, no one could imagine the unpredictable disaster brought about by an undue theory.（咋感觉没写完一样，不是结尾的感觉，我错觉了？）

看到说你病了，照顾好自己哦，身体最重要。
这篇我觉得很难写，憋了半天也没弄出来个啥，lz的观点很清晰，就是觉得段内的表达有点乱。
加油~

azoiUID: 2636348

原来病了，注意身体…
写的挺好的嘛，就是那些数据到时候考场上记得住么？