=七月流火=小组第2次小组作业 Argument 4 by knx1029

knx1029UID: 2609556

TOPIC: ARGUMENT4 - The following was posted on an Internet real estate discussion site.
"Of the two leading real estate firms in our town-Adams Realty and Fitch Realty-Adams is clearly superior. Adams has 40 real estate agents. In contrast, Fitch has 25, many of whom work only part-time. Moreover, Adams' revenue last year was twice as high as that of Fitch, and included home sales that averaged $168,000, compared to Fitch's $144,000. Homes listed with Adams sell faster as well: ten years ago, I listed my home with Fitch and it took more than four months to sell; last year, when I sold another home, I listed it with Adams, and it took only one month. Thus, if you want to sell your home quickly and at a good price, you should use Adams."
WORDS: 552          TIME: 00:29:35          DATE: 2009/8/21 10:05:11
        In this argument, the author claims that the Adams Realty, as real estate firm, gives a better perfomance in selling houses than Fitch Realty. To back up this claim, he cites the fact that Adams not only has more agents than Fitch but also possessed a relatively higher revenue and average house selling prices and the experience of his own. Careful examination of this evidence and reasoning, however, reveals that it lends little credible support to the author's conclusion. Reasons are stated as follows.
        In the first place, to draw the conclusion that Adams is better than Fitch, the author relies on an assumption that merely the number and working time of the agents could reflect their actual profession and efficiency. This assumption, nevertheless, is a weak one. Since the author does not supply any other detailed information about the agents, it is reasonable to conjecture that perhaps the agents in Fitch are much more efficient and small number of they could accomplish all the tasks only occupying their part-time, thus leading to this difference. Without accounting for this possibility and further investigating the cause of this difference in agents, the author cannot confidently draw any firm conclusions.
         In the second place, the author's conclusion that Adams has earned more profit and could sell houses at a higher price rests on another assumption that the houses sold by Adams and Fitch are of the same condition. Nonetheless, this assumption might not necessarily be the case. An appropriate negative example is not far to seek. Perhaps the houses Fitch sold are of poor housing condition and not convenient to take bus or subways. In contrast, the houses Adams sold are relatively new and near to bus stop and downtown. This disparity in housing condition may largely contribute to the different house prices and profits. Unless the author can supply more evidence to confirm the comparability of the houses the two companies sold, I will remain doubtful about the author's conclusion.
        In the third place, the author claims that Adams could sell houses more quickly, which depend on his own experience. However, the performance of Fitch ten years ago is not comparable with the current performance of Adams. As common sense informs me, there can be earth-shaking change in the real estate sales during this period. To be specific, ten years ago, people cannot afford a second house for renting, or they cannot consider moving into a new house due to economic problems. For that matter, the sale of the houses is not so optimistic as nowadays when people would like to buy houses to increase their properties waiting for the prices increasing later. This change will undoubtedly serve to undermine the author's claim.
        In the fourth place, the author's recommendation about Adams relies on the assumption that there are only two choices for those who want to sell their houses. Nonetheless, it is likely that there do exist other competitve firms which would give better performance despite their small scales. To reach the cited conclusion, the author should reason why these companies are not available.
        To sum up, the argument is not based on valid evidence or sound reasoning, neither of which is dispensable for a conclusive passage. In order to draw a better conclusion, the author should reason more convincingly, cite more persuasive evidence,  and take every consideration into account.

ianking7368UID: 2655993

1# knx1029

我个人觉得Argument的思路已经很成熟了，只是第四条有些牵强。

In this argument, the author claims that the Adams Realty, as real estate firm, gives a better perfomance in selling houses than Fitch Realty. To back up this claim, he cites the fact that Adams not only has more agents than Fitch but also possessed a relatively higher revenue and average house selling prices and the experience of his own. Careful examination of this evidence and reasoning, however, reveals that it lends little credible support to the author's conclusion. Reasons are stated as follows.
        In the first place, to draw the conclusion that Adams is better than Fitch, the author relies on an assumption that merely the number and working time of the agents could reflect their actual profession（这个词不太好，改成performance吧） and efficiency. This assumption, nevertheless, is a weak one. Since the author does not supply any other detailed information about the agents, it is reasonable to conjecture that perhaps the agents in Fitch are much more efficient and small number of they could accomplish all the tasks only occupying their part-time, thus leading to this difference. Without accounting for this possibility and further investigating the cause of this difference in agents, the author cannot confidently draw any firm conclusions.
         In the second place, the author's conclusion that Adams has earned more profit and could sell houses at a higher price rests on another assumption that the houses sold by Adams and Fitch are of the same condition. Nonetheless, this assumption might not necessarily be the case. An appropriate negative example is not far to seek. Perhaps the houses Fitch sold are of poor housing condition and not convenient to take bus or subways.（the traffic conditions are not so well.） In contrast, the houses Adams sold are relatively new and near to bus stop and downtown. This disparity in housing condition may largely contribute to(个人感觉lead to更好 ) the different house prices and profits. Unless the author can supply more evidence to confirm the comparability of the houses the two companies sold, I will remain doubtful about the author's conclusion.
        In the third place, the author claims that Adams could sell houses more quickly, which depend on his own experience. However, the performance of Fitch ten years ago is not comparable with the current performance of Adams. As common sense informs me, there can be earth-shaking（词太大， 用notable就行） change in the real estate sales during this period. To be specific, ten years ago, people cannot afford a second house for renting, or they cannot consider moving into a new house due to economic problems. For that matter, the sale of the houses is not so optimistic as nowadays when people would like to buy houses to increase their properties waiting for the prices increasing later. This change will undoubtedly serve to undermine the author's claim.
        In the fourth place, the author's recommendation about Adams relies on the assumption that there are only two choices for those who want to sell their houses. Nonetheless, it is likely that there do exist other competitve firms which would give better performance despite their small scales. To reach the cited conclusion, the author should reason why these companies are not available. （这个不知道行不行，题里说the two leading reality）
        To sum up, the argument is not based on valid evidence or sound reasoning, neither of which is dispensable for a conclusive passage. In order to draw a better（reliable） conclusion, the author should reason more convincingly, cite more persuasive evidence,  and take every consideration（possibility） into account.

knx1029UID: 2609556

把第四点去除掉了。。。本来我是想说是否有更小规模的公司，但是他们的工作效率更好.....

        In this argument, the author claims that the Adams Realty, as real estate firm, gives a better perfomance in selling houses than Fitch Realty. To back up this claim, he cites the fact that Adams not only has more agents than Fitch but also possessed a relatively higher revenue and average house selling prices and the experience of his own. Careful examination of this evidence and reasoning, however, reveals that it lends little credible support to the author's conclusion. Reasons are stated as follows.
        In the first place, to draw the conclusion that Adams is better than Fitch, the author relies on an assumption that merely the number and working time of the agents could reflect their actual performance and efficiency. This assumption, nevertheless, is a weak one. Since the author does not supply any other detailed information about the agents, it is reasonable to conjecture that perhaps the agents in Fitch are much more efficient and small number of they could accomplish all the tasks only occupying their part-time, thus leading to this difference. Without accounting for this possibility and further investigating the cause of this difference in agents, the author cannot confidently draw any firm conclusions.
        In the second place, the author's conclusion that Adams has earned more profit and could sell houses at a higher price rests on another assumption that the houses sold by Adams and Fitch are of the same condition. Nonetheless, this assumption might not necessarily be the case. An appropriate negative example is not far to seek. Perhaps the houses Fitch sold are of both poor housing condition and inconvenient traffic conditions. In contrast, the houses Adams sold are relatively new and near to bus stop and downtown. This disparity in housing condition may largely contribute to the different house prices and profits. Unless the author can supply more evidence to confirm the comparability of the houses the two companies sold, I will remain doubtful about the author's conclusion.
        In the third place, the author claims that Adams could sell houses more quickly, which depend on his own experience. However, the performance of Fitch ten years ago is not comparable with the current performance of Adams. As common sense informs me, there can be notable changes in the real estate sales during this period. To be specific, ten years ago, people cannot afford a second house for renting, or they cannot consider moving into a new house due to economic problems. For that matter, the sale of the houses is not so optimistic as nowadays when people would like to buy houses to expand their properties waiting for the prices increasing later. This change will undoubtedly serve to undermine the author's claim.
        To sum up, the argument is not based on valid evidence or sound reasoning, neither of which is dispensable for a conclusive passage. In order to draw a better conclusion, the author should reason more convincingly, cite more persuasive evidence, and take every consideration into account.