Argument117 [勇往直前小组]第三次作业 by strontium023

strontium023UID：2316968

ARGUMENT117 - The following is a memo from the business manager of Valu-Mart stores.

"Over 70 percent of the respondents to a recent survey reported that they are required to take more work home with them from the workplace than they were in the past. Since Valu-Mart has not seen impressive sales in its office-supply departments in the past, we should take advantage of this work-at-home trend by increasing at all Valu-Mart stores the stock of home office machines such as printers, small copy machines, paper shredders, and fax machines. We will also increase stock of office supplies such as paper, pens, and staplers. With these changes, our office-supply departments will become the most profitable component of our stores."


In this analysis,the argurer claims that if they in increase the stock of office supplies,they will become the most profitable component of their stores.It states that as a survey show over 70 percent of the respendents are required to take more work home with them frem the workplace than they were in the past and their office-supply increased its sales.But I think there are some defects.

Firstly,the survey is not strong enough to represent all the people.The survey only conclud the people who had answer the paper.Maybe the people who are not have extra work to bring home shows no interesting about the survey and didn't call back to the survey.Those people may take a higher figure in all the people who need to work.Actually,some kinds of work are not nessesary to bring work home,such as the cleaner and conductor,they lose the significance of work as well as they leave their work place.  

Secondly,there is no evidence to illuminate that the impressive increasing sales in Valu-Mart stores only caused by the people who have extra work to bring home.It is possibly caused by the company who have a big requirement on office-supply ,or there is a new office-supply which sales well in these months.Maybe they have sales promotion,so a lot of office-supply are saled,but this department still profit.It determined various causation,so we can't believe it only by one reason.

Thirdly,is the office-supply department lack of sale work?We can't see any sign in this memo that there is a shortage in office supplies,so it has no proof to prove the need of a stock.They have to face the fact that whether they had enough free money to increase their stock.On the other hand if not nessesary,the stock will not sale out and the department will lose money.

Finally,whether the office-supply departments will become the most profitable component of Valu-Mart stores is not sure.Maybe this department is only a small department.Considering the competition from the strongly big department,like the dress department and the food department,a small department may not win.It can not be scale only by a non-opponent statistic.

In sum,the argurer need to have specific and deeply survey,and then considering a new plan.


167.A folk remedy* for insomnia, the scent in lavender flowers, has now been proved effective. In a recent study, 30 volunteers with chronic insomnia slept each night for three weeks on lavender-scented pillows in a controlled room where their sleep was monitored. During the first week, volunteers continued to take their usual sleeping medication. They slept soundly but wakened feeling tired. During the second week, the volunteers discontinued their medication. As a result, they slept less soundly than the previous week and felt even more tired. During the third week, the volunteers slept longer and more soundly than in the previous two weeks. This shows that over a short period of time lavender cures insomnia.
1、志愿者的样本是否代表所有的人。
2、第二周睡得不好，能证明失眠被治愈了吗？
3、实验仅仅到第三周，第四周及以后呢？

56、Collectors prize the ancient life-size clay statues of human figures made on Kali Island but have long wondered how the Kalinese artists were able to depict bodies with such realistic precision. Since archeologists have recently discovered molds of human heads and hands on Kali, we can now conclude that the ancient Kalinese artists used molds of actual bodies, not sculpting tools and techniques, to create these statues. This discovery explains why Kalinese miniature statues were abstract and entirely different in style: molds could only be used for life-size sculptures. It also explains why few ancient Kalinese sculpting tools have been found. In light of this development, collectors should expect the life-size sculptures to decrease in value and the miniatures to increase in value.

1、头和手的模具能证明一定是真人模子吗？
2、很少发现雕刻工具不等于没有雕刻工具，更不能说明没有进行雕刻。
3、等身雕塑本身也有难度的，看他的价值不仅仅从一个方面评估。真人模子的发现他也不一定会贬值。
4、况且这里是以等身雕塑著名的，微型雕塑不一定好。

192、The following is a letter to the editor of the Roseville Gazette.
"Despite opposition from some residents of West Roseville, the arguments in favor of merging the townships of Roseville and West Roseville are overwhelming. First, residents in both townships are confused about which authority to contact when they need a service; for example, the police department in Roseville receives many calls from residents of West Roseville. This sort of confusion would be eliminated with the merger. Second, the savings in administrative costs would be enormous, since services would no longer be duplicated: we would have only one fire chief, one tax department, one mayor, and so on. And no jobs in city government would be lost—employees could simply be reassigned. Most importantly, the merger will undoubtedly attract business investments as it did when the townships of Hamden and North Hamden merged ten years ago."

1、造成职权混乱的原因有很多，不一定就是因为未合并。可能由于未把两地职责区分清楚等。、
2、管理方面，各个地区有各个地区的特点，统一不一定能管理好。并且统一节省资源的同时会带来职务纷争以及失业等。
3、十年前别人的例子不足以证明现在这两地也适用。


120、The following appeared in a health newsletter.
"A ten-year nationwide study of the effectiveness of wearing a helmet while bicycling indicates that ten years ago, approximately 35 percent of all bicyclists reported wearing helmets, whereas today that number is nearly 80 percent. Another study, however, suggests that during the same ten-year period, the number of accidents caused by bicycling has increased 200 percent. These results demonstrate that bicyclists feel safer because they are wearing helmets and they take more risks as a result. Thus, to reduce the number of serious injuries from bicycle accidents, the government should concentrate more on educating people about bicycle safety and less on encouraging or requiring bicyclists to wear helmets."

1、因骑车引起的事故并没有说是由不带头盔引起的。可能有他因。
2、戴头盔是自行车安全教育的一项，但也许不是引起事故的主因，所以应该查出主因是什么。
3、此十年和彼十年是否具有可比性。

[ 本帖最后由 strontium023 于 2007-7-23 02:16 编辑 ]

neycUID：2366606

"Over 70 percent of the respondents to a recent survey reported that they are required to take more work home with them from the workplace than they were in the past. Since Valu-Mart has not seen impressive sales in its office-supply departments in the past, we should take advantage of this work-at-home trend by increasing at all Valu-Mart stores the stock of home office machines such as printers, small copy machines, paper shredders, and fax machines. We will also increase stock of office supplies such as paper, pens, and staplers. With these changes, our office-supply departments will become the most profitable component of our stores."


In this analysis,the argurer claims that if they in（去掉？） increase the stock of office supplies,they will become the most profitable component of their stores.It states that as a survey show over 70 percent of the respendents are required to take more work home with them frem（from) the workplace than they were in the past and their office-supply increased its sales.But I think there are some defects.

Firstly,the survey(the sample of the survey?) is not strong enough to represent all the people.The survey only conclud the people who had answer the paper.Maybe the people who are not have extra work to bring home shows no interesting about the survey and didn't call back to the survey.Those people may take a higher figure in all the people who need to work.Actually,some kinds of work are not nessesary to bring work home,such as the cleaner and conductor,they lose the significance(重要性？必要性？） of work as well as they leave their work place.  

Secondly,there is no evidence to illuminate that the impressive increasing sales in Valu-Mart stores only caused by the people who have extra work to bring home.It is possibly caused by the company who have a big requirement on office-supply ,or there is a new office-supply which sales well in these months.Maybe they have sales promotion,so a lot of office-supply are saled,but this department still profit.It determined various causation,so we can't believe it only by one reason.（文中的意思是考虑到work-at-home这种趋势，作者猜测的销售情况可能好转，要增加库存。销售好转只是作者的猜想，所以这一段最好反过来说比较好一点）

Thirdly,is the office-supply department lack of sale work?We can't see any sign in this memo that there is a shortage in office supplies,so it has no proof to prove the need of a stock.They have to face the fact that whether they had enough free money to increase their stock.On the other hand if not nessesary,the stock will not sale out and the department will lose money.（论点很好，论述也挺清晰的这一段）

Finally,whether the office-supply departments will become the most profitable component of Valu-Mart stores is not sure.Maybe this department is only a small department.Considering the competition from the strongly big department,like the dress department and the food department,a small department may not win.It can not be scale（？） only by a non-opponent statistic.（论证的挺具体，不错）

In sum,the argurer need to have specific and deeply survey,and then considering a new plan.（considering a new plan不能作为对他本身论证的弥补哦，要说怎么才能在承认他现在的计划的前提下显得更合理些）


今天头好疼，难道是进入写作疲劳期了，呵呵？

linshaoUID：2338229

In this analysis,the argurer claims that if they increase the stock of office supplies,they will become the most profitable component of their stores.It states that as a survey show over 70 percent of the respendents are required to take more work home with them from the workplace than they were in the past and their office-supply increased its sales.But I think there are some defects.
（对题目的复述不错，有点模版的样子了）
Firstly,the survey is not strong enough to represent all the people.The survey only conclude the people who had answered the paper.Maybe the people who are not have extra work to bring home shows no interesting about the survey and didn't call back to the survey.Those people may take a higher figure in all the people who need to work. Actually,some kinds of work are not nessesary to bring work home,such as the cleaner and conductor,they lose the significance of work as well as they leave their work place（这个例子感觉不好，这段主要说survey不可靠，应该着重分析）.  

Secondly,there is no evidence to illuminate that the impressive increasing sales in Valu-Mart stores only caused by the people who have extra work to bring home.It is possibly caused by the company who have a big requirement on office-supply ,or there is a new office-supply which sales well in these months.Maybe they have sales promotion,so a lot of office-supply are saled,but this department still profit.It determined various causation, so we can't believe it only by one reason.
（这段分析有问题，only caused题中没有提到啊）
Thirdly,is the office-supply department lack of sale work?We can't see any sign in this memo that there is a shortage in office supplies,so it has no proof to prove the need of a stock.They have to face the fact that whether they had enough free money to increase their stock.On the other hand if not nessesary,the stock will not sale out and the department will lose money.
（感觉分析的太偏了，没抓住主要枝节）
Finally,whether the office-supply departments will become the most profitable component of Valu-Mart stores is not sure.Maybe this department is only a small department.Considering the competition from the strongly big department,like the dress department and the food department,a small department may not win.It can not be scale only by a non-opponent statistic.

In sum,the argurer need to have specific and deeply survey,and then considering a new plan.
结尾太单薄了。
还是提醒注意拼写！
建议看看资料上是怎么分析这个题目的，总体感觉部分分析偏了，没抓住主干。

[ 本帖最后由 linshao 于 2007-7-23 19:19 编辑 ]