argument47 [米国有米］bailamo27第六次作业

bailamo27UID: 2191717

(2006-12-18)
Argument47.Scientists studying historical weather patterns have discovered that in the mid-sixth century, Earth suddenly became significantly cooler. Although few historical records survive from that time, some accounts found both in Asia and Europe mention a dimming of the sun and extremely cold temperatures. Either a huge volcanic eruption or a large meteorite colliding with Earth could have created a large dust cloud throughout Earth's atmosphere that would have been capable of blocking enough sunlight to lower global temperatures significantly. A large meteorite collision, however, would probably create a sudden bright flash of light, and no extant historical records of the time mention such a flash. Some surviving Asian historical records of the time, however, mention a loud boom that would be consistent with a volcanic eruption. Therefore, the cooling was probably caused by a volcanic eruption.
(研究历史上气候变化的学者发现在六世纪中叶，地球突然变冷了很多。尽管那个时期很少有历史记录被保存下来，一些在亚洲和欧洲所发现的记录提到了太阳变暗和极度的寒冷。要么是巨大的火山喷发，要么是撞击地球的大型小行星导致地球大气形成一大片尘埃云层，这阻止了一定的阳光导致全球温度显著下降。然而，大型小行星的撞击可能产生突然的强闪光，而现存的那时的历史记录中没有提到过这样的闪光。然而那时遗留下来的一些亚洲历史纪录提到过与一次火山喷发相一致的巨大隆隆声。因此，那时的温度下降多半是火山喷发导致的。)
Syllabus:
1.         地球突然变冷的研究结果的依据是什么？文中提到几乎没有历史记录保存下来，仅靠亚洲和欧洲的少量资料不能推导出全球的气温情况。而且，亚洲和欧洲的资料也仅提到太阳变暗和极度寒冷。
2.         太阳变暗和极度寒冷的原因是小行星撞击地球或火山喷发所形成的沙尘暴阻止了阳光而引起，不成立。作者忽略了其他可能性：太阳变暗可能是太阳自身活动减弱引起；可能是宇宙其他活动造成；Tsunami也可能引起沙尘暴；
3.         作者推测行星撞地球应该会导致闪光，但没有记录显示有闪光出现。而亚洲的记录说有随火山爆发而来的巨响，故气温下降是由于火山喷发导致。这无道理。行星撞地球形成的闪光可能发生在人烟稀少的地区，大部分人看不到；也可能记录都丢失。但这都不足以说明没有闪光的记录就没有行星撞地球。
4.         巨响是否一定是由火山喷发产生？会不会当时有火山喷发而还有其他自然现象同时进行，而响声来自其他自然现象。即使是来自火山爆发，也未说明火山爆发后地球气温真的随之下降。故没有理由推翻行星撞地球至气温下降的可能性，而断言是由于火山爆发引起的。
5.         总结：论据不足。结论很荒谬。需提供更多证据。

Full text: (time:10:19—12：00， 701words)
In the argument, the arguer states that in the mid-sixth century, the temperature of the earth became significant cooler. In order to support his argument, the arguer claims based on some existing historical records from Asia and Europe that the sun was deem and the earth temperature was extremely cold. Additionally, the arguer states that there are two possibilities can lead to the cooler temperature of the earth at that time, either a large meteorite collision or volcanic eruption. Finally, he asserts that it is volcanic eruption rather than meteorite collision lead the cold temperature. It is plausible to get the same comment with the arguer, however, closer scrutiny, this argument is full of false reasoning and based on illogical and scant evidence.

At the very beginning, the arguer states that few historical records survive from that time. Some records of Asia and Europe mentioned a dimming of the sun and extremely cold temperatures cannot lend support to the conclusion that the whole earth suffered with an extraordinarily drop of temperature in the mid-sixth century. Concede that both Asia and Europe are large continents, but without enough evidence from other five continents, it is hard for scientists to analysis the temperature pattern of the earth as a whole.

Furthermore, the arguer states that there are only two situations that can cause the decline of the earth temperature, one is a large meteorite colliding with earth or a huge volcanic eruption, both of which can create a tremendous dust cloud throughout Earth’s atmosphere that is capable of blocking enough sunlight to cooler the global temperatures significantly. It seems well reasoning. However, the argument is fatally weakened by failing to take other alternatives which can lead to the colder temperature into account. Firstly, there are lots of nature activities can cause large dust cloud in Earth’s atmosphere, such as, tsunami. Secondly, a dimming of the sun and an abruptly drop of Earth’s temperature can be affected by other factors. Such as, the sun activity is weakened at that time, and its energy is not as strong as it was usual; there are some other things happened in universe, like black hole and so forth, which all can influent the strength of sunlight and energy of the sun, then lead to the drop of Earth’s temperature.

Additionally, the arguer deducts that Earth’s temperature dropping is caused by eruption of volcanoes rather than the collision by a large meteorite. In order to support his argument, the arguer asserts that a bright flash of light will appear when the colliding with Earth. However, no historical records mention such a flash from that time. Besides, a loud boom accompany with a eruption of volcano which is noted in surviving Asian historical records of that time. However, there are lots of logical problems in his evidence. Firstly, the meteorite collision may happen in an area that insufficient of population. If so, it is obviously most people cannot witness such a flash. Secondly, there may deem have some historical records about the flash which are already destroyed or lost during such a long time. Even without historical records concerning to the flash can a conclusion be made there is no meteorite collided with Earth, and consequently lead the dropping of Earth’s temperatures.

Another, the arguer doesn’t give any evidence indicate that the huge loom is caused by the volcanic eruption. There may other natural phenomenon happened simultaneously, which caused the tremendous sound. Concede that it is truly the volcanic eruption made the loom, the arguer fails mentioning that after the eruption of the volcano, Earth’s temperatures has consequently dropped. There is any evidence can show a direct relationship between the volcanic eruption and the change of Earth’s temperatures.

In sum, this argument is based on lots of illogical reasoning and is lack of sufficient evidence to support that it is certainly the volcanic eruption caused the cooler temperature in the mid-sixth century. To confirm that there is inevitable link between the volcanic eruption and Earth’s temperatures, the arguer has to provide further and detail evidence about the true circumstances at that time. Meanwhile, some other factors that may lead to Earth’s temperature dropping have to be taken into account.


[ 本帖最后由 bailamo27 于 2006-12-19 22:24 编辑 ]

laner023UID: 2223653

In the argument, the arguer states that in the mid-sixth century, the temperature of the earth became significant cooler. In order to support his argument, the arguer claims based on some existing historical records from Asia and Europe that the sun was deem and the earth temperature was extremely cold. Additionally, the arguer states that there are two possibilities can lead to the cooler temperature of the earth at that time, either a large meteorite collision or volcanic eruption. Finally, he asserts that it is volcanic eruption rather than meteorite collision lead the cold temperature. It is plausible to get the same comment with the arguer, however, closer scrutiny, this argument is full of false reasoning and based on illogical and scant evidence.

At the very beginning, the arguer states that few historical records survive from that time. Some records of Asia and Europe mentioned a dimming of the sun and extremely cold temperatures cannot lend support to the conclusion that the whole earth suffered with an extraordinarily drop of temperature in the mid-sixth century. Concede that both Asia and Europe are large continents, but without enough evidence from other five continents, it is hard for scientists to analysis the temperature pattern of the earth as a whole.

Furthermore, the arguer states that there are only two situations that can cause the decline of the earth temperature, one is a large meteorite colliding with earth or a huge volcanic eruption( a large meteorite colliding with earth or a huge volcanic eruption), both of which can create a tremendous dust cloud throughout Earth’s atmosphere that is capable of blocking enough sunlight to cooler the global temperatures significantly.（感觉这个长句有点问题，尤其最后一个that，有指代不清的嫌疑。建议分成几个短句，我的语法也不是很过关，不知道怎么改：-(） It seems well reasoning. However, the argument is fatally weakened by failing to take other alternatives which can lead to the colder temperature into account. Firstly, there are lots of nature activities can cause large dust cloud in Earth’s atmosphere, such as, tsunami. Secondly, a dimming of the sun and an abruptly drop of Earth’s temperature can be affected by other factors. Such as, the sun activity is weakened at that time, and its energy is not as strong as it was usual; there are some other things happened in universe, like black hole and so forth, which all can influent the strength of sunlight and energy of the sun, then lead to the drop of Earth’s temperature. （反例不错！）

Additionally, the arguer deducts that Earth’s temperature dropping is caused by eruption of volcanoes rather than the collision by a large meteorite. In order to support his argument, the arguer asserts that a bright flash of light will appear when the colliding with Earth. However, no historical records mention such a flash from that time. Besides, a loud boom accompany with a(an) eruption of volcano which is noted in surviving Asian historical records of that time. (题目中是说历史记录中有这一声和火山爆发很相似的响声，并没有确定这个声音就来自于火山爆发。)However, there are lots of logical problems in his evidence. Firstly, the meteorite collision may happen in an area that insufficient of population. If so, it is obviously most people cannot witness such a flash. Secondly, there may deem have some historical records about the flash which are already destroyed or lost during such a long time. Even without historical records concerning to the flash can a conclusion be made there is no meteorite collided with Earth, and consequently lead the dropping of Earth’s temperatures.（不明白你想表达的意思） 不需要用大量的篇幅去复述题目，考试的时候也没有那么多时间。

Another, the arguer doesn’t give any evidence (加一个to) indicate that the huge loom is(was) caused by the volcanic eruption. There may other natural phenomenon happened simultaneously, which caused the tremendous sound. Concede that it is truly the volcanic eruption made the loom, the arguer fails mentioning that after the eruption of the volcano, Earth’s temperatures has consequently dropped. There is any改成no evidence can show a direct relationship between the volcanic eruption and the change of Earth’s temperatures.

In sum, this argument is based on lots of illogical reasoning and is lack of sufficient evidence to support that it is certainly the volcanic eruption caused the cooler temperature in the mid-sixth century. To confirm that there is inevitable link between the volcanic eruption and Earth’s temperatures, the arguer has to provide further and detail evidence about the true circumstances at that time. Meanwhile, some other factors that may lead to Earth’s temperature dropping have to be taken into account.

错误找得很全，well done!（我少写了一个:-P）
建议不要用大量篇幅去复述题目，一来可以使你的段落主题句更突出，二来可以节省时间。

zhouwanqiuUID: 2280150

我认为你写的太长了，不必这么长400－500单词，可以节省时间