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TOPIC: ARGUMENT147 - The following appeared in an editorial in a business magazine.
"Although the sales of Whirlwind video games have declined over the past two years, a recent survey of video-game players suggests that this sales trend is about to be reversed. The survey asked video-game players what features they thought were most important in a video game. According to the survey, players prefer games that provide lifelike graphics, which require the most up-to-date computers. Whirlwind has just introduced several such games with an extensive advertising campaign directed at people 10 to 25 years old, the age-group most likely to play video games. It follows, then, that the sales of Whirlwind video games are likely to increase dramatically in the next few months."
WORDS: 424 DATE: 2006-12-31
Abstract:
1、调查不能导出销售量要反弹的小结论.
2、调查的真实有效性值得怀疑。
3、基于10岁到15岁年龄的人爱玩游戏的观点,面对这些受众群进行的广告不一定会增加销量。
4、即使销量反弹,也没有证据表明销量一定会在将来的几个月显著上升。
Article:
Citing a survey and a fact about advertising campaign, the editor concluded that the sales of whirlwind video games are likely to increase dramatically in the next few months. However, the author's assertion relied on a series of unproven assumptions and is therefore unconvincing as it is stands.
To begin with, the editor thought that the survey could inferred directly that the sales trend was about to be reversed. Given that video-players like the products the company provided, the sales also depends on other factors, such as the price of products, the mode the company sells, and the . Unless the editor told me the other conditions are fulfilled, it cannot be said the survey indicating directly to a growing sales.
Even assuming that the survey can lead to the assertion that the sales trend was about to be reversed, the validity of the survey is skeptical. The editor just told me that the survey was based on the video-game players, but there is deficient data showing what kinds of players it was asked. Perhaps just young male game players involved in this survey. If other ones involved, for example, young female game players, the most important in a video game for them would be the designed plots of the game. Thus, the survey cannot support editor's view.
Based on the assumption that 10 to 25 years old people most likely to play video games, the editor inferred that the advertising campaign would be effective to increase the sales. There is no persuasive data to support that the people the campaign advertised to will buy the products. For instance, young boys may be attracted by the products but will not choose it for the prize reason. Therefore, the editor cannot assert that the advertising campaign is effective.
Finally but not least, the editor falsely thought that "a trend is about to be reversed" equals to "the sales likely to increase dramatically in the next few months". It may be reversed at the next month, then stay the same level and only increased a little. Obviously, there are differences between the two concepts the editor mentioned.
To sum up, the editor's assertion relies on a series of doubtful assumptions that render it unconvincing as it stands. To bolster it, editor should provide the data on a more convincing survey and how effectiveness the advertising campaign did to increase the sales. To better assess, the argument I would need more information about how the products attract consumers, and whether other facets concerning of sales are accomplished.
[ 本帖最后由 candygan 于 2006-12-31 15:00 编辑 ] |
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