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TOPIC: ARGUMENT240 - The following appeared in a memo written by a dean at Buckingham College.
"To serve the housing needs of our students, Buckingham College should build a new dormitory. Buckingham's enrollment is growing and, based on current trends, should double over the next fifty years, thus making existing dormitories inadequate. Moreover, the average rent for an apartment in our town has increased in recent years. Consequently, students will find it increasingly difficult to afford off-campus housing. Finally, an attractive new dormitory would make prospective students more likely to enroll at Buckingham."
WORDS: 537 TIME: 0:28:38 DATE: 2007-3-20
The author concludes that the Buckingham College needs to build a new dormitory. However, the conclusion is unconvincing because the evidence is not sound.
First of all, the author predicts that the enrollment will double over the next fifty years based on current trend of growth. The prediction suffers so many defects that it is questionable. The premise is the growth rate will be stable in the next fifty years, which is usually impossible. As far as I am concerned, the number of enrollment will be affected by many factors such as tuition fees, quality of teachers, and job offers received by graduates. For example, if the tuition fees will increase in the next year because of the raise of staff's salary, probably some students will change their mind to enroll in other colleges because the tuition is unacceptably expensive for them. Then the growth of enrollment will be retarded. Even if this will not be the case in the next year, who can guarantee the situation will not change after twenty, or even fifty years? Unless the prediction can proved to be credible, the author's deduction that there will be a scanty of dormitory is unconvincing.
Moreover, even if the prediction is true, the mere fact that average rent of apartments in the town is not equal with the conclusion that students can not afford them. First, we do not know how much the rent has been increased in recent years. Maybe the rent of apartments was very low at first and even after increase of several years, the rent is still not high and most students can afford it. Besides, the author only mentions apartments. What about other off-campus housing? Maybe all other kinds of housing outside the campus is at a low rent and consequently it can be a appealing alternative for students. Furthermore, if housing outside campus is at a low rent, they will compete with our new dormitory. Therefore, the author needs to do more detailed investigation about the overall rent among all off-campus housing before he asserts it is difficult to find a house outside campus.
Finally, whether a new and beautiful dormitory is attractive enough to increase enrollments is still not clarified. The decision to choose a college is usually based on considering many factors besides beautiful and comfortable dormitories. Student need to consider if the major they are interested in is good in the college. Is the city where the college located attractive? Are there a lot of job opportunities for them? Is the staff in the college qualified to teach them? If these requirements fail, the dormitory alone usually can not change their opinions of enrolling another college. An attractive new dormitory may be a good factor to consider, but not the decisive one to make students enroll at the college. In addition, there will be only one new dormitory. Certainly only a limited number of student can live there, that will make the attraction of the new dorm trivial because most students can still live in other old dormitories.
In sum, the evidence provided by the author is not sufficient enough and defective. Unless these suspicions are exterminated, the conclusion is open to doubt.
[ 本帖最后由 pippo1983 于 2007-3-20 20:39 编辑 ] |
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