A习作temp argument65 |0806G-AW小组|第二次作业

Northeast-WindUID: 2408896

Argument65 The following appeared in a memo from the president of a chain of cheese stores located throughout the United States.
"For many years all the stores in our chain have stocked a wide variety of both domestic and imported cheeses. Last year, however, the five best-selling cheeses at our newest store were all domestic cheddar cheeses from Wisconsin. Furthermore, a recent survey by Cheeses of the World magazine indicates an increasing preference for domestic cheeses among its subscribers. Since our company can reduce expenses by limiting inventory, the best way to improve profits in all of our stores is to discontinue stocking many of our varieties of imported cheese and concentrate primarily on domestic cheeses."

Words：550  Time：2Hours

1）  最畅销的五种奶酪并不见得是最赢利的产品。很有可能是因为促销活动等一些销售策略而导致虽然销售量大，但是利润比较低。另外，即使这些产品是非常赢利的，也很有可能是因为这家新店铺就在威斯康星州，所以当地居民比较偏爱这种本土生产的奶酪，这不能推出其他地区的连锁店中这五种奶酪同样畅销。

2） 如果我们承认这家新开的店铺的确因此赢利丰富并且并不是在威斯康星州开设的，那么，我们还要质疑新开的店铺是否能够代表连锁店总体的赢利水平。从销售区域来看，并没有证据说明其他地区许多店铺的奶酪品种销售情况和该店是一样的，很有可能其他店铺的主要赢利产品是进口奶酪制品。从持续的时间来看，即便新店铺在新开业的第一年-去年-代表了总体赢利状况，那么今年是否还会如此呢？

3） 作为对这种质疑的回应，论者引用一项国际杂志近期的调查来说明杂志订阅者对国内奶酪制品的偏好有所增长，但这项调查由于这样几个问题并不能证明本土奶酪制品销售量大的会成为一种趋势持续存在，更成问题的是，也难以证明眼下所描述的情况是真实的。首先，该调查的确定受访对象的数量不得而知，作为受访对象的杂志订阅者中有多少人回应调查也不知道。其次，即使数量上有了保证，但谁又能保证这些订阅者大部分是奶酪制品的消费者，而不是生产者呢？因此这项代表性可能很弱的调查作为证明本土奶酪销售增长-金而导致利润增长-和其趋势的延续是不能令人信服的。

4）  最后，即使论者所提供的上述的证据和说明是可信的话，我们也不能说做好的赢利方式是较少进口奶酪的库存而把精力集中在本土产品上。一方面是因为仓库的闲置本身就是资源没有充分利用，也算作商业成本，或者将进口奶酪减少后闲置的空间存放国内产品同样要付出成本；另一方面，尽管储藏成本要考虑，但作为连锁商店最主要的利润来源应该在商品的销售上，在没有提出和比较其他销售策略的情况下贸然说在所有店铺中限制库存是最好的赢利方法未免有些武断。


In this memo the president recommends that the best way to improve profits is that company should reduce expenses by limiting inventory of varieties of imported cheese and concentrate primarily on domestic cheeses. And he cited the situation of the sale of the newest store and a recent survey by a magazine to support his recommendation. However, his argument is logically flawed and unconvincing since several critical aspects.

The president claims that the best-selling cheeses at newest store in last year were domestic cheeses from Wisconsin. But, the best-selling is not equal to the best profitable. It is very possible that the new store adopted certain marketing strategy, for example sales promotion, to sell so many cheeses with low profits. So, of course, this claim doesn’t lead to huge profits necessarily. Another possible circumstance, Even if the new store is really high profitable, this new store might be built in Wisconsin where residents prefer to local cheeses. So, the claim is still unpersuasive.

In addition, even this new store is really high profitable which located a state but not Wisconsin, we will query that whether the new store could represent the total profit level of the company. First, there is no evidence which proves that the situation of the sale in other chain  cheese stores located different areas is similar to the new store, otherwise there is one possibility which the most profitable cheeses are imported cheeses in other stores. Second, when we concern with the feasibility of the continuation of the sale, even if the new store represent the total profitable level in last year, who could assure that it continue to make high profits and represent other stores?

As some sort of response to the question above, the president provides a recent survey by Cheeses of the World magazine which concludes the preference for domestic cheeses is increasing. Whereas this survey cannot demonstrate the continuation of the sale with high profits, more problematic, it even cannot prove the now situation. First, we don’t know the total number of the surveyed people, moreover, the number in surveyed people who responds to the survey is also not clear; Second, even that the number is big and the responses are plenary, who can prove those subscribers as surveyed people are real cheese consumers rather than cheese producers? Therefore, the survey is not as convincing as it stands.

Finally, if we assume that the president’s evidences were right, we also cannot infer that the best way to improve profits in all chain stores is to reduce or stop stocking imported cheeses arbitrarily. On the one hand, discontinuing stoking varieties of imported cheeses doesn’t mean reduce expenses obviously, because underutilized storage is one managing cost, or stocking domestic cheeses also need expenses; on the other hand, though expenses of stock should be concerned, the president should pay more attention on the chief source of profit, and other propositions as like reducing stoking expense are flanking, so it’s arbitrary and unreasonable to claim the best way without considering and comparing with other proposals.

To sum up, the president’s recommendation is unconvincing for his weak evidences and demonstration as it stands. To provide persuasive proposal, the president should do an exactly investigation and consider more concrete different conditions which would form the foundations for a good recommendation.

第一次写，把握不好的地方请多多指导，谢谢啦


[ 本帖最后由 Northeast-Wind 于 2008-1-10 23:26 编辑 ]

EmeraldUID: 2238409

In this memo the president recommends that the best way to improve profits is that company should reduce expenses by limiting inventory of varieties of imported cheese and concentrate primarily on domestic cheeses. And he cited the situation of the sale of the newest store and a recent survey by a magazine to support his recommendation. However, his argument is logically flawed and unconvincing since several critical aspects.

The president claims that the best-selling cheeses at newest store in last year were domestic cheeses from Wisconsin. But, the best-selling is not equal to the best profitable. It is very possible that the new store adopted certain marketing strategy, for example sales promotion, to sell so many cheeses with low profits(能不能加上or even no profits,然后再说一下他们就是想先低价销售打开市场，然后再正常的价格出售，这样的话可能更有说服力吧）. So, of course（这个词放在这里好像不太合适）, this claim doesn’t lead to huge profits necessarily. Another possible circumstance, Even if the new store is really high profitable, this new store might be built in Wisconsin where residents prefer to local cheeses. So, the claim is still unpersuasive.

In addition, even this new store is really high profitable which located a state but not Wisconsin, we will query that whether the new store could represent the total profit level of the company. First, there is no evidence which proves that the situation of the sale in other chain  cheese stores located different areas is similar to the new store, otherwise there is one possibility which the most profitable cheeses are imported cheeses in other stores. Second, when we concern with the feasibility of the continuation of the sale, even if the new store represent the total profitable level in last year, who could assure that it continue to make high profits and represent other stores? （这段感觉说理不足，如果能深挖一下就好了。）

As some sort of response to the question above（这句话好像有问题）, the president provides a recent survey by Cheeses of the World magazine which concludes the preference for domestic cheeses is increasing. Whereas this survey cannot demonstrate the continuation of the sale with high profits, more problematic, it even cannot prove the now situation. First, we don’t know the total number of the surveyed people, moreover, the number in surveyed people who responds to the survey is also not clear（如果能举出几个可能性，可能会更好一点）; Second, even that the number is big and the responses are plenary, who can prove those subscribers as surveyed people are real cheese consumers rather than cheese producers? Therefore, the survey is not as convincing as it stands.

Finally, if we assume that the president’s evidences were right, we also cannot infer that the best way to improve profits in all chain stores is to reduce or stop stocking imported cheeses arbitrarily. On the one hand, discontinuing stoking varieties of imported cheeses doesn’t mean reduce expenses obviously, because underutilized storage is one managing cost, or stocking domestic cheeses also need expenses（但是储藏进口的奶酪也是需要费用的，而且进口的奶酪可能储藏费用更高）; on the other hand, though expenses of stock should be concerned, the president should pay more attention on the chief source of profit, and other propositions as like reducing stoking expense are flanking, so it’s arbitrary and unreasonable to claim the best way without considering and comparing with other proposals.

To sum up, the president’s recommendation is unconvincing for his weak evidences and demonstration as it stands. To provide persuasive proposal, the president should do an exactly investigation and consider more concrete different conditions which would form the foundations for a good recommendation.

感觉文章应该再细写一下，举出一些假设之类的，可以增强说服力。我自己英语也不好，写得东西被说成烂的没办法看。所以这些意见仅供参考了。

lilumiluUID: 2332310

In this memo the president recommends that the best way to improve profits is that company should reduce expenses by limiting inventory of varieties of imported cheese and concentrate primarily on domestic cheeses. And he cited the situation of the sale(个人感觉不好，直接用sales就行吧？小问题) of the newest store and a recent survey by a magazine to support his recommendation. However, his argument is logically flawed and unconvincing since several critical aspects.

The president claims that the best-selling cheeses at newest store in last year were domestic cheeses from Wisconsin. But, the best-selling is not equal to the best profitable. It is very possible that the new store adopted certain marketing strategy, for example sales promotion(例子很好，是我没有想到的，所以我没能展开写), to sell so many cheeses with low profits. So, of course, this claim doesn’t lead to huge profits necessarily. Another possible circumstance, Even if the new store is really high profitable, this new store might be built in Wisconsin where residents prefer to local cheeses. So(so太多了，用therefore吧，其实也是个人喜好，呵呵), the claim is still unpersuasive.(我觉得这里应该说得更清楚点，首先我觉得应该把aguer的逻辑说出来，他有一个推广：新店里卖的好的都是本国货，所以以后的新店或其他店，本国货都该卖得好。而你的意思是这个新店可能开在win州，别处不一定卖得好，所以aguer的推广是不成熟的，而不应该是claim is unpersuasive。Claim陈述的是一个事实，你并没有反驳它的可信度，你反驳的是assumation。)

In addition, even this new store is really high profitable which located a state but not Wisconsin, we will query that whether the new store could represent the total profit level of the company. First(first和firstly是不是都能用？请指教), there is no evidence which proves that the situation of the sale in other chain (of) cheese stores located different areas is similar to the new store, otherwise there is one possibility which the most profitable cheeses are imported cheeses in other stores. Second, when we concern with the feasibility of the continuation of the sale, even if the new store represent the total profitable level in last year, who could assure that it continue to make high profits and represent other stores?

As some sort of response to(换成in response to可否？) the question above, the president provides a recent survey by Cheeses of the World magazine which concludes the preference for domestic cheeses is increasing. Whereas this survey cannot demonstrate the continuation of the sale with high profits, more problematic, it even cannot prove the now situation. First, we don’t know the total number of the surveyed people, moreover, the number in surveyed people who responds to the survey is also not clear; Second, even that the number is big and the responses are plenary, who can prove those subscribers as surveyed people are real cheese consumers rather than cheese producers? Therefore, the survey is not as convincing as it stands.(从样本总量和调查人的类型批驳，个人认为挺好。)

Finally, if we assume that the president’s evidences were right, we also cannot infer that the best way to improve profits in all chain stores is to reduce or stop stocking imported cheeses arbitrarily. On the one hand, discontinuing stoking varieties of imported cheeses doesn’t mean reduce expenses obviously, because underutilized storage is one managing cost, or stocking domestic cheeses also need expenses(我认为这个不好说，鉴于可以批判的地方很多，我会放弃这点。); on the other hand, though expenses of stock should be concerned, the president should pay more attention on the chief source of profit, and other propositions as like reducing stoking expense are flanking(除了减少存储费用，还应该考虑其他方面来提高利润，很好。), so it’s arbitrary and unreasonable to claim the best way without considering and comparing with other proposals.

To sum up, the president’s recommendation is unconvincing for his weak evidences and demonstration as it stands. To provide persuasive proposal, the president should do an exactly investigation and consider more concrete different conditions which would form the foundations for a good recommendation.

以上纯属个人意见，姑且看之，欢迎互相探讨。