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ARGUMENT51 - The following appeared in a medical newsletter.
"Doctors have long suspected that secondary infections may keep some patients from healing quickly after severe muscle strain. This hypothesis has now been proved by preliminary results of a study of two groups of patients. The first group of patients, all being treated for muscle injuries by Dr. Newland, a doctor who specializes in sports medicine, took antibiotics regularly throughout their treatment. Their recuperation time was, on average, 40 percent quicker than typically expected. Patients in the second group, all being treated by Dr. Alton, a general physician, were given sugar pills, although the patients believed they were taking antibiotics. Their average recuperation time was not significantly reduced. Therefore, all patients who are diagnosed with muscle strain would be well advised to take antibiotics as part of their treatment."
字数:469~迟到了~狠拍哈~~
In this medical newsletter, the arguer concludes that all patients who suffered from muscle strain should be persuaded to use antibiotics as part of their treatment. In order to justify the conclusion, the arguer drew a study of two group patients. However, considering that this examination is not parallel which violates the principle of testing, the argument seems to be suspicious. Moreover, the argument is also suffered from several critical flaws, which render it incredible as it stands.
A threshold problem with the argument lies in the presumption that the secondary infections would absolutely occur after severe muscle strain. The arguer provides no evidence, directly or indirectly, to support the assumption. Any treatment seemingly suit to heal muscle strain is untenable without solidify the basis that patients are apt to second infected after muscle strain.
Secondly, the conditions of two group patients are too vague to draw a certain conclusion let alone to make some speculation. As a common sense, a parallel experiment needs same physical status which is prerequisite. Whereas, this argument gave us no statement about the physical figure, quantity and other inquired number of the two group patients. Maybe the quantity of the experiment group is lower than the level to make some results, if it is the case, any conclusion drew from it is unconvinced. As well as, there are many other probabilities which would make experience useless without further details on it. On the other hand, aside from the physical distinction between the two groups, how can it be equal that one group treated by a doctor who specializes on sports medicine and the other by a general physician? The former probably have adequate experience in cure muscle strain. He may appeal to some useful methods such as massage as I assumed. The correct and accurate treatment might lead to average recuperation time significantly reduced rather than the antibiotics.
Thirdly, the arguer has not roll out the side effect of the sugar pills which might act detrimental to recovery. In addition, one group was given sugar pills although the patients believed they were taking antibiotics. There is no evidence to illustrate the psychology have influence little on the recovery. Admittedly, I concede that antibiotics indubitable play a significant role in sterilization; nevertheless, side effect such as drug-resistance may be brought as well after abusing. Besides, considering that patients who are allergic to antibiotics should be ensured away from it in the first place. Consequently, the advice in this argument will not apply to all patients who are diagnosed with muscle strain.
To sum up, the argument is not cogent. To corroborate it, the arguer must give evidence to solidify the presumption and provide sufficient information about the two groups of patients, as well as, roll out all other possibilities which would influence the experiment's result.
[ 本帖最后由 leftkiss 于 2008-2-11 22:40 编辑 ] |
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