Argument 53 【7\8\9\10】 7.23(第三次作业) by general

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Argument 53 【7\8\9\10】 7.23(第三次作业)

TOPIC: ARGUMENT53 - Thirteen years ago, researchers studied a group of 25 infants who showed signs of mild distress when exposed to unfamiliar stimuli such as an unusual odor or a tape recording of an unknown voice. They discovered that these infants were more likely than other infants to have been conceived in early autumn, a time when their mothers' production of melatonin-a hormone known to affect some brain functions-would naturally increase in response to decreased daylight. In a follow-up study conducted earlier this year, more than half of these children-now teenagers-who had shown signs of distress identified themselves as shy. Clearly, increased levels of melatonin before birth cause shyness during infancy and this shyness continues into later life.
WORDS: 402          TIME: 01:26:52          DATE: 2008-7-23 10:28:52

The author claim that the levels of melatonin before birth bring an impact on infants' shyness, and continues into later life according to the research that 25 infants born in early autumn when their mother produced a kind of hormone called melatonin, suffer mild distress when hear a strange sound or smell an unusual odor, and after 12 years, these 25 children were also feel shy. This conclusion seems logical, but the correctness of the sample was doubt.

First of all, the author provides the sample of 25 infants without any restrict details. Lacking information about the region and the gender of the infants surveyed, it is impossible to access the convinced result. If these 25 babies came from the same place, this sample should be able to draw a common conclusion for some other regional factors lead the shyness, such as the lack of some nutrition, poor weather and so on. Different gender also lead different results, commonly, girls are shier than boys.

And then, imagine this sample can represent all, the author still commit the "After of this, therefore, because of this" fallacy and also confuse the time between the pregnancy and birth.
However, the fact is that babies conceived when their mothers production a melatonin, then when they birth, they show sighs of mild distress when exposed to some stimuli, it doesn't means melatonin is the reason or the only one reason to lead the shyness. Maybe the melatonin produced not only in early autumn, but also in pregnancy. Maybe the criminal is the drug used by the doctor when the pregnant women gave birth to a baby.
The time spacing between pregnancy and birth is near 10 months. What may happen in these 10 years? Whether those mothers lacked nutrition? Whether they did excess work, suffered heavy stress?
If author cannot provide enough evidence to rule out of these possibilities, the conclusion should be fallacious.
By compared be with 10 months, 12 years is a longer time spacing for child to cultivate their character. A large amount of unexpected factors would contribute to the shyness, such as their educations, living environment, friends... Therefore, this argument is unwarranted without eliminate such possibility.

In conclusion, to persuade me that melatonin produced when baby conceived will lead to a shyness life of the baby the researcher must supply clear evidence to and rule out the possibilities explain what I questioned above.

楼上的战友快下来拍啊，拍死了不用偿命的。