argument65 jingjing(kito)

jingjingtousUID：2164820

TOPIC：ARGUMENT 65 - The following appeared in a memo from the president of a chain of cheese stores located throughout the United States.

"For many years all the stores in our chain have stocked a wide variety of both domestic and imported cheeses. Last year, however, the five best-selling cheeses at our newest store were all domestic cheddar cheeses from Wisconsin. Furthermore, a recent survey by Cheeses of the World magazine indicates an increasing preference for domestic cheeses among its subscribers. Since our company can reduce expenses by limiting inventory, the best way to improve profits in all of our stores is to discontinue stocking many of our varieties of imported cheese and concentrate primarily on domestic cheeses."

提纲：
1 作者犯了草率推广的错误，作者没有提供任何证据表明最新店的销售情况能够反映全国所有商店的情况。
2 调查的可信度值得怀疑，杂志的订阅者不能代表cheese的消费者，因此他们的建议及消费趋向不具有代表性。
3 限制存货量和增加利润之间没有直接因果联系。限制存货未必减少开支，可能其它费用增加，且没有证据表明利润会增加，第一，这种消费趋势未必会持续下去；第二，没有与竞争者比较，cheese的价格是否合适值得怀疑。
In this memo, the president of a chain of cheese stores recommends that in order to gain more profits their stores should stop stocking their various imported cheeses and focus primarily on domestic ones. To support this recommendation the president points out that last year the five best-selling cheeses at their newest store were all domestic cheeses. And the president also cites a survey which indicates that there is a tendency for domestic cheeses among the magazine's subscribers. This argument is fraught with dubious assumptions.

First of all, the president commits a hasty generalization. He unjustifiably assumes that domestic cheddar cheeses were better sold than the imported cheeses based on the fact that the five best-selling cheeses at their newest store were all domestic ones. However, can the statistics of cheese sales in the newest store reflect the sales in all their stores throughout the United States? Certainly not. It is entirely possible that the best-selling cheeses in the stores in other areas are the imported cheeses. Without ruling out this and other scenarios, the president cannot draw any firm conclusion based on this fact.

Secondly, the survey cited by the president to support his argument is statistically unreliable. The president provides no evidence that the subscribers of the Cheeses of the World magazine can represent the consumers of their cheeses. Perhaps they are cheeses producers or those who were employed by the stores to make market analysis for cheese selling. Even assuming that the president substantiated that the subscribers was their cheese customers, the president should still inform us what the percentage of the respondents and the randomness of the survey. Unless the president can confirm the reliability of the survey I cannot be convinced by his conclusion.

Thirdly, the president fails to establish the causal relationship between limiting the inventory and increasing the profits. Admittedly, their company could cut down some of its costs through restraining the inventory, nevertheless, this action may not reduce the expenses. It is highly possible that the increase of the transportation fee and the advertising fee would offset the cost saving of limiting the stocking. Even if the measure would reduce the expense, whether it could bring about more profits is still unwarranted. First, the president provides no clear evidence that this tendency toward domestic cheese would remain the same in the long run. Second, without any comparison of the cheese price of its competitors, the comfort of the price is open to doubt, it begs the question: is there any profit after the adjustment for inflation?

To sum up, the argument is statistically problematic in several respects. To strengthen it the president should provide better evidence that the cheese sales in their newest store can reflect the selling situation of all their stores throughout the country and that the opinions of the magazine's subscribers could represent their cheese customers. To better assess it, I would also need to know that by limiting the inventory the expenses was actually reduced, and the preference toward domestic cheeses would not be changed in the foreseeable future.

jingjingtousUID：2164820

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