argument47 交作业kito小组

kito9695UID：209685

====================Argument===================
【题目】
Argument47
Scientists studying historical weather patterns have discovered that in the mid-sixth century, Earth suddenly became significantly cooler. Although few historical records survive from that time, some accounts found both in Asia and Europe mention a dimming of the sun and extremely cold temperatures. Either a huge volcanic eruption or a large meteorite colliding with Earth could have created a large dust cloud throughout Earth's atmosphere that would have been capable of blocking enough sunlight to lower global temperatures significantly. A large meteorite collision, however, would probably create a sudden bright flash of light, and no extant historical records of the time mention such a flash. Some surviving Asian historical records of the time, however, mention a loud boom that would be consistent with a volcanic eruption. Therefore, the cooling was probably caused by a volcanic eruption.
【翻译】
研究历史上气候变化的学者发现在六世纪中叶，地球突然变冷了很多。尽管那个时期很少有历史记录被保存下来，一些在亚洲和欧洲所发现的记录提到了太阳变暗和极度的寒冷。要么是巨大的火山喷发，要么是撞击地球的大型小行星导致地球大气形成一大片尘埃云层，这阻止了一定的阳光导致全球温度显著下降。然而，大型小行星的撞击可能产生突然的强闪光，而现存的那时的历史记录中没有提到过这样的闪光。然而那时遗留下来的一些亚洲历史纪录提到过与一次火山喷发相一致的巨大隆隆声。因此，那时的温度下降多半是火山喷发导致的。
【提纲】
1、形成大片尘埃云层，不一定会导致全球温度显著下降，要看时间的长短，尘埃的厚度等
2、大型小行星的撞击不是百分之百会产生强闪光
3、记录中没有提到闪光，不代表没有，可能是没记录下来，或者记录下来遗失了
4、没有任何证据显示巨大的隆隆声一定是火山喷发，而且没有提供气温下降和巨响发生的先后关系，如果先气温下降才发生巨响，二者当然没有因果关系
5、忽略了其他导致温度下降的原因，如太阳黑子多少、九星汇聚的地心张角、地球自转变速周期、地球地极移动周期等因素，也可能火山和行星撞击同时发生
【正文】（464words）
In this argument, the arguer considers the cooling in mid-sixth century was caused by a volcanic eruption based on the evidence that some surviving historical records of the time mention that a loud boom that would be consistent with a volcanic eruption happened then while no sudden bright flash of light with a large meteorite collision was recorded. It is well-presented, but not thoroughly well-reasoned, as I talked below.

First of all, the arguer mentions fails to establish a causal relationship between a huge volcanic eruption or a large meteorite colliding with Earth and the lower global temperatures significantly. Though a large dust cloud throughout Earth's atmosphere may be created, we should also take the depth of the dust cloud and its duration into account. For lacking these relative alternatives, the arguer is not able to assert that the cooling was caused by a huge volcanic eruption or a large meteorite colliding.
Second, another major flaw that weakens the argument is that the arguer equals that no extant historical records of the time mention such a flash to no such a flash. It is possible that this flash happens in the area, such as South Pole where no people could see it; or perhaps there had once be some records of such flash, but it was destroyed or missed through hundreds years. Besides, we cannot rule out the possibility the meteorite collision happened in mid sixth century is a special one with no flash. Without ruling out the possibility talked above, we could not make the hasty premise that the cooling was probably caused by a large meteorite colliding with Earth.

In addition, there is no evidence indicating that the loud boom recorded is caused by a huge volcanic eruption. Maybe it is caused by a mountain breaking down, or some disaster like tsunami; also, there is no information about the time of the boom and the significantly cooling of temperature. If the cooling happened before the boom, it would be ridiculous to believe a volcanic eruption with the boom is the reason of the earth cooling.

Finally, before I come to my conclusion, it is necessary to point out another flaw in the argument that the arguer commits a fallacy of ignoring other possible cause of the cooling. As is demonstrated by the scientist, the reason for the dimming of the sun and extremely cold temperatures could be caused by lots of reasons periodically, such as the increasing and decreasing of macula, the speed changing of the earth rotation and the moving of the two earth poles and so on.

In sum, without more detail about the boom, this argument seems rather hasty and warranted. To make it logically accepted, the arguer should get more information and take other possible causes into account.

dganggangUID：2125101

【提纲】
1、形成大片尘埃云层，不一定会导致全球温度显著下降，要看时间的长短，尘埃的厚度等 （专业知识？ 不懂）
2、大型小行星的撞击不是百分之百会产生强闪光
3、记录中没有提到闪光，不代表没有，可能是没记录下来，或者记录下来遗失了
4、没有任何证据显示巨大的隆隆声一定是火山喷发，而且没有提供气温下降和巨响发生的先后关系，如果先气温下降才发生巨响，二者当然没有因果关系
5、忽略了其他导致温度下降的原因，如太阳黑子多少、九星汇聚的地心张角、地球自转变速周期、地球地极移动周期等因素，也可能火山和行星撞击同时发生
【正文】（464words）
In this argument, the arguer considers the cooling in mid-sixth century was caused by a volcanic eruption based on the evidence that some surviving historical records of the time mention that a loud boom that would be consistent with a volcanic eruption happened then while no sudden bright flash of light with a large meteorite collision was recorded. It is well-presented, but not thoroughly well-reasoned, as I talked below. 表述不完整 关于meteorite没有讲明白 简短的前提应该是主要意思完整

First of all, the arguer mentions fails to establish a causal relationship between a huge volcanic eruption or a large meteorite colliding with Earth and the lower global temperatures significantly. Though a large dust cloud throughout Earth's atmosphere may be created, we should also take the depth of the dust cloud and its duration into account. For lacking these relative alternatives, the arguer is not able to assert that the cooling was caused by a huge volcanic eruption or a large meteorite colliding.对头

Second, another major flaw that weakens the argument is that two thats the arguer equals that no extant historical records of the time mention such a flash to no such a flash. It is possible that this flash happens in the area, such as South Pole where no people could see it; or perhaps there had once be some records of such flash, but it was destroyed or missed through hundreds years. Besides, we cannot rule out the possibility the meteorite collision happened in mid sixth century is a special one with no flash. Without ruling out the possibility talked above, we could not make the hasty premise that the cooling was probably caused by a large meteorite colliding with Earth.

In addition, there is no evidence indicating that the loud boom recorded is caused by a huge volcanic eruption. Maybe it is caused by a mountain breaking down, or some disaster like tsunami; also, there is no information about the time of the boom and the significantly cooling of temperature. If the cooling happened before the boom, it would be ridiculous to believe a volcanic eruption with the boom is the reason of the earth cooling.

Finally, before I come to my conclusion, it is necessary to point out another flaw in the argument that the arguer 啰嗦了 commits a fallacy of ignoring other possible cause of the cooling. As is demonstrated by the scientist, the reason for the dimming of the sun and extremely cold temperatures could be caused by lots of reasons periodically, such as the increasing and decreasing of macula, the speed changing of the earth rotation and the moving of the two earth poles and so on. 专业人士啊 啊？

In sum, without more details about the boom, this argument seems rather hasty and unwarranted. To make it logically accepted, the arguer should get more information and take other possible causes into account.

不错的 专业知识很多

cywaUID：147517

第一点提纲是不是不要更好，？

kito9695UID：209685

原帖由 cywa 于 2006-1-14 18:56 发表
第一点提纲是不是不要更好，？

恩，我也觉得这个有点问题

kito9695UID：209685

原帖由 dganggang 于 2006-1-14 17:22 发表
In this argument, the arguer considers the cooling in mid-sixth century was caused by a volcanic eruption based on the evidence that some surviving historical records of the time mention that a loud boom that would be consistent with a volcanic eruption happened then while no sudden bright flash of light with a large meteorite collision was recorded. It is well-presented, but not thoroughly well-reasoned, as I talked below. 表述不完整 关于meteorite没有讲明白 简短的前提应该是主要意思完整

恩，谢谢提醒，每次写开头的时候都比较愁，把题目用自己的语言表述出来的话会好一点儿，但是很费时间，直接copy原文又显得罗嗦，大家怎么办？

kito9695UID：209685

原帖由 dganggang 于 2006-1-14 17:22 发表
不错的 专业知识很多

专业知识是小组讨论的结果，有小组就是好啊，啦啦啦~

dganggangUID：2125101

原帖由 kito9695 于 2006-1-14 21:32 发表


恩，谢谢提醒，每次写开头的时候都比较愁，把题目用自己的语言表述出来的话会好一点儿，但是很费时间，直接copy原文又显得罗嗦，大家怎么办？

也许可以用自己的话来说 保证主要内容体积就可以了
你的issue我明天改