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59 The following appeared in an article in the health section of a newspaper.
"According to the available medical records, the six worst worldwide flu epidemics during the past 300 years occurred in 1729, 1830, 1918, 1957, 1968, and 1977. These were all years with heavy sunspot activity—that is, years when the Earth received significantly more solar energy than in normal years. People at particular risk for the flu should therefore avoid prolonged exposure to the Sun."
攻击:1。avaiable records,数据不具有代表性。
2。流感和太阳黑子运动之间密切不大
3 建议比较草率(不知道这个可不可以攻击)
以上。第一次计时写, 不过还是超了十分钟。。哎。。。
The newspaper informs people of avoiding flu by less exposure to the sun, draws the conclusion based on the medical records. The writer makes the final suggestion by relating the prevalent of flu with the unusual solar energy, which I consider there are several logical flaws in it.
The conclusion that the flu epidemics are because of heavy sunspot activity is mainly based on the available medical records. The writer retrospect past 300 years as the statistic, and only 6 years are recorded. This is not sufficient enough to represent the whole flu epidemics history of human beings. The writer fails to provide more facts to have a general look over the history, which makes the available records less persuasive.
Moreover, by the less potent records, the news wrongly substantiate the heavy sunspot activity as the fatal reason for the flu epidemics. There's no compelling facts, or scientific evident and information to explain the more solar energy the more flu suffers. It's entirely possible these six years happened to have more solar energy, which is a pure geographical phenomenon. Many other factors contributed to the spread of flu. Perhaps, these years weather conditions were changeable and the medical techniques were poor. Or, perhaps, during these years, the society were unstable, people keep roaming around all the time, which easily cause the prevail of flu. Many other reasons might explain the flu epidemics.
Even if the supposition more solar energy would give rise to the expansion of flu, the writer make such conclusion is too hasty. Some particular words are not defined which make it unjustifiable for readers. As we all know, exposed to sun light has many positive functions, such as taking a deep breath, disinfecting germs, is very healthy especially in cold winter. Nevertheless, in the suggest to avoid prolonging exposure alone. The prolong time should be different to individuals, and according to seasons. These unmentioned details both result the unconvincing news.
Therefore, what has been cited in the news is less evident. To convince readers, the news had better cite more statistics to look back the history of flu, and invite some scientists to further explain whether there’s any relations between the epidemics and the excessive solar energy. Finally, the writer should offer a considerate suggestion. |
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