ARGUMENT59（同主题），带提纲，欢迎互拍

zephyr10UID: 2117533

ARGUMENT 59 - The following appeared in an article in the health section of a newspaper.

"According to the available medical records, the six worst worldwide flu epidemics during the past 300 years occurred in 1729, 1830, 1918, 1957, 1968, and 1977. These were all years with heavy sunspot activity-that is, years when the Earth received significantly more solar energy than in normal years. People at particular risk for the flu should therefore avoid prolonged exposure to the Sun."
WORDS：418          TIME：0:30:00          DATE：2006-2-3

In this article, the author suggests the people at risk for flu should avoid prolonged exposure to the sun. It may seem to be sound when we first take the reasons cited into consideration, but after carefully weighing on closer analysis, some crucial fallacies come to the surface.

First of all, it is the problematic and dubious medical records that leave the argument open to question. In the passage, we can only get an idea that the six worst flu years happen to be the ones with heavy sunspot activities. However, merely upon this pale evident can we never reach the author's assumption that there is a necessary cause-and-effect relation here. Maybe there are other years when the earth received much more solar energy than these six, but just have an ordinary rate of flu epidemics. If this is the truth, the author's conclusion rooting on these records will become groundless and indefensible.

Moreover, even if the heavier sunspot activity may play some part in causing the worldwide flu, it is still premature for the arguer to recommend this activity is rightly the key one. It is entirely possible that in these years, the precautions towards flu virus are relatively insufficient. Or maybe these years are just the years in which the flu evolves and then making the tremendous difficulties in controlling. All these reasons may play as crucial factors in manifesting the cases. Only when accounting for and eliminating these possible scenarios, can the author convince me that the sunlight is the key element involving.

Further more, it is still unwise and unsubstantiated for the author to give out the recommendation of avoiding exposure. Common sense tells us that the likely correlation between the sunspot activity and the high risk of flu is not so simple as the matter of exposure. Perhaps the sunlight affects the surroundings and strengthens the virus, and then helps the virus to survive more easily and actively. Or a short-time exposure may also harm. If these are the cases, then the suggestion to avoid prolonged exposure will be ineffective and soundless.

To sum up, the testimonies of this article are unwarranted to justify what the arguer maintains. To bolster it, he/she should furnish more clear and direct evidences that the heavy sunspot activity triggers the worst worldwide flu epidemics and plays as a key factor in it. Additionally, to be better acquainted with the recommendation, I would need more detail information about the functions made by the sunlight in causing the epidemics.

提纲：
1、不具可信度，可能有些年SUN大但没FLU。
2、错误因果
3、避免长时晒未必有效。

要考了，就这水平，给大家添信心：）
欢迎指教，留连接2月8后必回拍。

[ 本帖最后由 yogurt4 于 2006-2-3 19:15 编辑 ]

yogurt4UID: 198389

https://bbs.gter.net/viewthre ... e%3D1#pid1768043099
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另外注意一下,帖子标题ISSUE/ARGUMENT和题号之间不要空格

didocatUID: 2156998

In this article, the author suggests the people at risk for flu should avoid prolonged exposure to the sun. It may seem to be sound when we first take the reasons cited into consideration, but after carefully weighing on closer analysis, some crucial fallacies come to the surface.

First of all, it is the problematic and dubious medical records that leave the argument open to question. In the passage, we can only get an idea that the [six worst flu years ??能这么说么] happen to be the ones with heavy sunspot activities. However, merely upon this pale evident[evidence] can we never reach the author's assumption that there is a necessary cause-and-effect relation here.[倒装句，好] Maybe there are other years when the earth received much more solar energy than these six, but just have an ordinary rate of flu epidemics. If this is the truth, the author's conclusion rooting on these records will become groundless and indefensible.

Moreover, even if the heavier sunspot activity may play some part in causing the worldwide flu, it is still premature for the arguer to recommend[我觉得这个词欠妥,用assume一类的词是不是更好?] this activity is rightly the key one. It is entirely possible that in these years, the precautions towards flu virus are relatively insufficient. Or maybe[用perhaps更好，仅个人意见] these years are just the years in which the flu evolves and then making the tremendous difficulties in controlling.[这句话从表达到意思都不是很清楚] All these reasons may play as crucial factors in manifesting the cases. Only when accounting for and eliminating these possible scenarios, can the author convince me that the sunlight is the key element involving[involving???].

Further more, it is still unwise and unsubstantiated for the author to give out the recommendation of avoiding exposure. Common sense tells us that the likely correlation between the sunspot activity and the high risk of flu is not so simple as the matter of exposure. Perhaps the sunlight affects the surroundings and strengthens the virus, and then helps the virus to survive more easily and actively. Or a short-time exposure may also harm. If these are the cases, then the suggestion to avoid prolonged exposure will be ineffective and soundless.

To sum up, the testimonies of this article are unwarranted to justify what the arguer maintains. To bolster it, he/she should furnish more clear and direct evidences[evidence不可数]that the heavy sunspot activity triggers[好词] the worst worldwide flu epidemics and plays as a key factor in it. Additionally, to be better acquainted[这个词不太准确吧] with the recommendation, I would need more detail information about the functions made by the sunlight in causing the epidemics.

总的来说结构不错，但是内容感觉略显单薄。词和句式也还都不错~
加油加油！

yogurt4UID: 198389

麻烦LZ给楼上的笨笨看一下作文:D
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