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littleheavenUID: 191407

argument59
"According to the available medical records, the six worst worldwide flu epidemics during the past 300 years occurred in 1729, 1830, 1918, 1957, 1968, and 1977. These were all years with heavy sunspot activity-that is, years when the Earth received significantly more solar energy than in normal years. People at particular risk for the flu should therefore avoid prolonged exposure to the Sun."
提纲：
1．available medical records不能说明flu epidemics 和 sunspot activity有联系，数据模糊
2．flu epidemics 和 sunspot activity无因果关系
3．结论有问题。适量阳光有利于健康，其他预防flu epidemics的因素
正文：
According to a seemly sound relationship between the flu epidemics and sunspot activity, the arguer recommends that people at risk for the flu should avoid prolonged exposure to the Sun. However, the argument is logically flawed in several respects.

First, the available medical records are not sufficient in determining the relationship between the flu epidemics and the sunspot activity, and not representative of those of the whole human history. It is possible that some even worse worldwide flu epidemics happened in other years but were not recorded, or that the records were just destroyed or just not found. Moreover, the arguer provides no information about the flu epidemics before the past 300 years. In addition, we are also not informed whether there were worldwide flu epidemics in other years with heavy sunspot activity. Without such evidence, the arguer’s assumption that the flu epidemics are related to the sunspot activity is unjustifiable.

Secondly, even if there is a correlation between the flu epidemics and the sunspot activity, the arguer further assumes a casual relationship between them. However, the arguer provides no firm evidence to substantiate the assumption. It is entirely possible that the flu epidemics were due to the weather deterioration caused by heavy sunspot activity. Common sense informs us that an abnormal increase or decrease in temperature or an unusual drought or flood, might make the spread of virus more easily and thus cause wide flu epidemics.  Also, there were many other factors—such as the wars and worldwide famines—that contributed to the worldwide flu epidemics despite the sunspot activity. Without ruling out these alternative explanations, the argument cannot conclude that the sunspot activity causes the flu epidemics.

Finally, even though the sunspot activity might serve to the flu epidemics, the recommendation that people at risk for the flu should avoid long-time exposure to the Sun is dubious at best. As we know, sunlight serves to human’s heath. For that matter, the arguer provides no scientific detailed analysis that how much solar energy might be harmful to people’s health and can eventually cause flu epidemics. What if a short exposure to sunlight in a year with extremely heavy sunspot activity? Moreover, I cannot decide who should pay attention to the suggestion since the arguer does not clearly define the people at particular risk for the flu epidemics.

In sum, the argument is not persuasive as it stands. To bolster the arguer’s recommendation, he would provide more convincing information to prove the casual relation between the sunspot activity and the flu epidemics.

[ 本帖最后由 littleheaven 于 2006-3-8 10:25 编辑 ]