argument145

acmeUID: 2150032

Arg 145:


A new study collected data that shows that people who snore are more likely to gain weight than are people who do not snore. It is well known that many people who snore also stop breathing frequently during the night for a few seconds, a condition called sleep apnea. The interruption of breathing wakes the person—often so briefly that the waking goes unnoticed—and can leave the person too tired during the day to exercise. Anyone who snores, therefore, should try to eat less than the average person and to exercise more.

提纲：
1．        因果倒置。
2．        模糊数据，没有说服力。
3．        突然得出睡眠呼吸中断导致劳累的假设不妥。
4．        劳累则不会运动，进而导致肥胖，没有论据支持。



In this argument, the arguer concludes that anyone who snores should try to eat less than the average person and to exercise more. To support this conclusion, the arguer cites the result of a new study that people who snore are more likely to gain weight than are people who do not snore. In addition, the arguer assumes that the sleep apnea can make people who snore too tired during the day to exercise. A careful examination would reveal that the argument suffers from several critical fallacies.

In the first place, the argument fails to establish a causal relationship between the snoring and weight. It is possible that those who in weight tend to snore. However, the arguer does not provide sufficient evidence that can indicate that the weight is the direct cause of snore. The arguer treats the cause of snore as is it is the result of snore.

In the second place, the fact that many people who snore also stop breathing frequently during the night for a few seconds does not insure that all people do. If this so called “many” is 1,000 and the total number of the people who snore is 1,000,000, the claim do not make sense. The arguer should provide more concrete information about the evidence.

In addition, the assumption that the interruption of breathing can leave the person too tired during the day is open to doubt. No evidence is provided to demonstrate it. The arguer fails to take into account other relevant factors that might result in tire. For instance, heavy works during the day; the low quality of the body itself; what is more, the mentality in some special stage.

Finally, granted that the people become tired briefly because of the snore, we can not insure that they will not exercise. The arguer does not provide any evidence that makes this reasoning sound. Even if people do not take exercise, this can not imply that they will be in weight. It is possible that the people eat too much high calorie food, which can not be recovered by exercise. Moreover, people who are not often take exercise might be not be in weight, for example, as a result of heredity.

To sum up, this argument is undermined by various logic fallacies. To better support the arguments, it is necessary for the arguer to provide more information and to warrant diverse assumptions.


自我评价：不是很好，没有展开，空有个架子。加油~

[ 本帖最后由 acme 于 2006-4-10 19:10 编辑 ]

acmeUID: 2150032

不好意思，重复了，麻烦斑竹删掉一个~多谢

hanhan_CUID: 2108176

ding

acmeUID: 2150032

原帖由 hanhan_C 于 2006-4-3 20:30 发表
ding

thx~

acmeUID: 2150032

Arg 147:


"Although the sales of Whirlwind video games have declined over the past two years, a recent survey of video-game players suggests that this sales trend is about to be reversed. The survey asked video-game players what features they thought were most important in a video game. According to the survey, players prefer games that provide lifelike graphics, which require the most up-to-date computers. Whirlwind has just introduced several such games with an extensive advertising campaign directed at people 10 to 25 years old, the age-group most likely to play video games. It follows, then, that the sales of Whirlwind video games are likely to increase dramatically in the next few months."

In this argument, the arguer concludes that the sales of Whirlwind video games are likely to increase dramatically in the next few months. To support this conclusion, the arguer cites the result of a survey that the sales of video games trend is about to be reversed and the video-game players think the most important features in a video game is the lifelike graphics, which require the most up-to-date computers. In addition, the arguer points out that Whirlwind has just introduced several such games with an extensive advertising campaign directed at people 10 to 25 which are claimed to be the most likely age-group to play video games. A careful examination reveals that the argument suffers from several fallacies.

In the first place, from the survey quoted in the argument, we find no sign of procedures for random sampling, and have a good reason to doubt if the sample is representative enough to reflect the sales trend and the consumers concerning as a whole. It is possible that the survey is conduct in another area or another country, so the result says little about the sales trend of Whirlwind. Another problem with the survey is that it says the sales trend is about to be reversed. Even if the survey is credible and can represent the trend of Whirlwind, it is possible that this will come true in one year or even longer, so the increasing sales of Whirlwind in the next few month is open to doubt.

In the second place, the arguer fails to establish the relationship between the most important features of video games and the sales. Also, there is insufficient evidence to indicate that the most important features of video games people concerning is what the arguer maintains. Granted that the feature is the lifelike graphics, the fact that it is the brief cause of the increasing sales is not sound. The arguer ignores other factors that might influence the sales. For example, the content of video games; the price of the equipment attaching to the games and the games itself; what’s more, other video game companies which have possibly produced this kind of games for a long time and own a majority of the market.

In addition, the arguer fails to provide the evidence about the information about the Whirlwind. Although the arguer demonstrate that the sales of Whirlwind video games have declined over the past two years, it is possible that the sales of Whirlwind is very well before, then even the decline in a large extent will not influence the high sales today. There might be other possibilities that result in the decline. It is likely that the overall economic circumstance is not well, which makes the sales decline of Whirlwind. So the arguer hastily concludes that the sales will be increasing only because the Whirlwind has introduced such games. In addition, the arguer commits a fallacy of begging the question in assuming that the people aged from 10 to 25 are most likely to play the video games. There is no evidence offered to lend strong support to this assumption.

To sum up, the argument is undermined by various logical fallacies. To better support the argument, it is better for the arguer to provide more information and to warrant his or her assumption.

(63’, 551 words)

[ 本帖最后由 acme 于 2006-4-6 00:53 编辑 ]

hanhan_CUID: 2108176

ding ,这篇有进步了,关注中

acmeUID: 2150032

Arg 59:

The following appeared in an article in the health section of a newspaper.
"According to the available medical records, the six worst worldwide flu epidemics during the past 300 years occurred in 1729, 1830, 1918, 1957, 1968, and 1977. These were all years with heavy sunspot activity—that is, years when the Earth received significantly more solar energy than in normal years. People at particular risk for the flu should therefore avoid prolonged exposure to the Sun."


In this argument, the arguer concludes that people at particular risk for the flu should therefore avoid prolonged exposure to the Sun. To support the conclusion, the arguer provides the evidence that the six worst worldwide flu epidemics during the past 300 years occurred in 1729, 1830, 1918, 1957, 1968, and 1977 according to the available medical records. In addition, the arguer points out that these years were all with heavy sunspot activity, which means that the Earth received significantly more solar energy than in normal years. A careful examination reveals that the argument suffers from several fallacies.

In the first place, the arguer fails to establish the casual relationship between the flu and sunspot. The mere fact that the six worst worldwide flu epidemics during the past 300 years occurred in the years that were all with heavy sunspot activity is insufficient to support the assumption that the sunspot can result in the flu. This fact is provided according to the available medical records, so there might be many other years in which the flu occurred which ignored by the arguer. Moreover, what about other years in which there is sunspot activity? Possibly, the flu happened in the same time or did not, which is not inferred in the argument. Then it is not groundless for the arguer to suppose that there is the causal relationship between them.

In the second place, the arguer hastily concludes that people at particular risk for the flu should therefore avoid prolonged exposure to the Sun. Even the fact that the sunspot is the brief reason of the flu is credible, the suggestion probably is that they should take some measures to protect themselves properly during the years that have the sunspot, but not to avoid prolonged exposure to the Sun. Moreover, the arguer offered the fact that the years with heavy sunspot activity means that the Earth received significantly more solar energy than in normal years. There is no evidence to lend strong support to that the receiving of the energy of the Earth have relationship with the sunshine. Even so, what about the days without sunshine during the sunspot, if the people can expose themselves in the open air freely? Common sense tells us that there are many benefits of sunshine, the conclusion that people should avoid exposure to the Sun without any limit is misleading.

In addition, the arguer ignores other factors that might cause the flu. There is no concrete evidence about the six worst worldwide flues. Which countries suffered more seriously? What other events happen during the years? The arguer fails to rule out the possibility that some countries or areas did not suffer the flu or there were other infections that cause the flu. So the measure that the people should avoid to be influenced by the sunspot might not avoid the flu at all. In addition, the people at particular risk for the flu might be more easily get flu because the factors of themselves. For instance, the people are constitutionally weak; the infants; what’s more, the people with other serious diseases such as AIDS.

To sum up, the argument is undermined by various logical fallacies. To better support the argument, it is necessary for the arguer to provide more information and to warrant his or her assumptions.

(552 words, 61’)

[ 本帖最后由 acme 于 2006-4-9 19:35 编辑 ]

acmeUID: 2150032

Arg73:

The following appeared in a memo from a manager of a car dealership.
"Ten years ago, long-term car leasing became available in our country of Mohilia as an alternative to outright car ownership, and leasing has steadily risen in popularity. For each of the last five years, the number of people leasing new cars has surpassed the number buying new cars. The average age of cars driven in Mohilia is six years; hence, if new car leases again outnumber purchases this year, it is likely that the majority of drivers will be driving leased, not individually owned, cars. Therefore, we should change the focus of our business from selling cars to leasing them."


In this argument, the arguer concludes that Mohilia should change the focus of the business from selling cars to leasing them. To support this conclusion, the arguer points out that the leasing has steadily risen in popularity and for each of the last five years, the number of people leasing new cars has surpassed the number buying new cars. In addition, the arguer claims that the average age of cars driven in Mohilia is six years and it is likely that the majority of drivers will be driving leased, not individually owned cars if new car leases again outnumber purchases this year. A careful examination reveals that the argument suffers from several fallacies.

In the first place, the assumption that the leasing has steadily risen in popularity is open to doubt. The mere evidence that for each of the last five years, the number of people leasing new cars has surpassed the number buying new cars is insufficient to lend strong support to the assumption the arguer maintains. What about the situation before five years? It is possible that there were no people to lease cars. And it is also likely that every family in Mohilia had at least one individual car, then if the numbers of people leasing cars surpassed the numbers of people buying cars in the near five years, the evidence fail to demonstrate that the total numbers of people leasing cars surpasses the numbers of people buying cars.

In the second place, the claim that if new car leases again outnumber purchases this year, it is likely that the majority of drivers will be driving leased, not individually owned cars is open to doubt. Granted that the   leasing cars is popular in the past five years, but the average age of cars driven in Mohilia is six years, it might be the time for people to buy cars. Even if the new car leases outnumber purchases this year, it fails to imply that the there is the possibility that the majority of driver will drive leased cars. The arguer ignores the causes that people lease cars. The reasoning fails to rule out the possibility that people release cars for travel, ceremony, or removing, which are temporary.

In addition, the arguer hastily concludes that they should change the focus of the business from selling cars to leasing them. Even if the evidence that the leasing steadily rise in popularity, it says little that the leasing can make more profit than purchasing. The common sense tells us that the profit of purchasing cars if higher than leasing cars. The arguer ignores other problems that might influence the profit by leasing cars. For example, what the values of the cars that are used longer than average are; if the rent can recover the cost of cars; what’ more, if the cars is damaged or lost, some sound insurances is available?

To sum up, the argument is undermined by various logical fallacies. To better support the argument, it is necessary for the arguer to provide more information and to warrant his or her assumptions.

(55’, 515 words)

[ 本帖最后由 acme 于 2006-4-8 14:25 编辑 ]

acmeUID: 2150032

Arg76:

The following appeared as part of an article in a health and beauty magazine.
"A group of volunteers participated in a study of consumer responses to the new Luxess face cream. Every morning for a month, they washed their faces with mild soap and then applied Luxess. At the end of that month, most volunteers reported a marked improvement in the way their skin looked and felt. Thus it appears that Luxess is truly effective in improving the condition of facial skin."


提纲：

1．Study 问题
2．Other possibilities


In this argument, the arguer concludes that the Luxess face cream is truly effective in improving the condition of facial skin. The conclusion is based on a study that a group of volunteers participated in this study of consumer responses to new Luxess face cream and every morning for a month, the washed their faces with mild soap and then applied Luxess face cream. In addition, the arguer cites the result of the study that most volunteers reported a marked improvement in the way their skin looked and felt at the end of that month. A careful examination reveals that this argument suffers from several fallacies.

First of all, from the study quoted in the argument, we find no sign for some procedures for random sampling and have a good reason to doubt if the sample is representative enough to reflect all the people as a whole. The common sense tells us that the facial skin is different from one area to another area, from male to female, from young people to old people. It is possible that the group of volunteers participated in the study is from one area, and the Luxess face cream is effective for them especially. And it is also possible that the volunteers are all male or female. In addition, they might be in the same age stage. The insufficient evidence makes the reasoning open to doubt. The arguer should offer more concrete information to let the study lend strong support to the assumption.

In addition, the arguer fails to rule out other possibilities that might be effective in improving the condition of facial skin and can get the same results of the study. It is likely that the effectiveness is because of the mild soap instead of the Luxess face cream. Probably, if the volunteers used mild soap only, the result might be more effective. In addition, what the volunteers used in other times except morning? It is possible that they used some effective face cream that resulted in the effectiveness other than Luxess face cream. Moreover, the evidence that most volunteers reported a marked improvement in the way their skin looked and felt is incredible. The study fails to demonstrate the result which is reported by the volunteers themselves. It is possible that it was because the psychology effect and in fact the result was not as well as they feel. Granted that the result is scientifically justified, how many people took part in the study? There might be 10 people, then “the most” might be only 6 or 7, which say little about what the arguer maintains.

To sum up, the argument is undermined by various logical fallacies. To better support the argument, it is necessary for the arguer to provide more information and to warrant his or her assumptions.

(50’, 462 words)

[ 本帖最后由 acme 于 2006-4-9 21:51 编辑 ]

runningpiggyUID: 194977

发贴格式有问题，请参照一下贴子修改。

https://bbs.gter.net/viewthre ... &extra=page%3D1

acmeUID: 2150032

呵呵，不好意思，我是觉得一个一个文章很占空间，忽视了格式要求，再次抱歉~