argument 147

glxingUID: 2156425

argument 147

TOPIC: ARGUMENT147 - The following appeared in an editorial in a business magazine.

"Although the sales of Whirlwind video games have declined over the past two years, a recent survey of video-game players suggests that this sales trend is about to be reversed. The survey asked video-game players what features they thought were most important in a video game. According to the survey, players prefer games that provide lifelike graphics, which require the most up-to-date computers. Whirlwind has just introduced several such games with an extensive advertising campaign directed at people 10 to 25 years old, the age-group most likely to play video games. It follows, then, that the sales of Whirlwind video games are likely to increase dramatically in the next few months."


The author gets the conclusion that the sales trend of Whirlwind video games is about to be reversed based on a survey. However, close scrutiny reveals that the arguer has made several mistakes.

First of all, the author does not analyze why the sales of Whirlwind video games have declined over the past two years, so it is not necessary that introducing some new video games could change the company's sales. Perhaps the customers do not like the service of this company or can not afford the prices of its video games, then the company's sales trend  will fail to be reversed even its video games is of high quality and advertising campaign succeed.

Secondly, the arguer provides no assurances that the survey on which the argument depends is statistically reliable. It is possible that the number of respondents is too low to be representative of overall video games players or most repondents in this survey are by chance people who prefer games with lifelike graphics.

Thirdly, even if the survey is reliable enough, the author does not go further to prove that most players would like to change their computers for just a video games. If the required up-to-date computers are so expensive that only a small part of palyer can afford, then the video games can not be saled well although they are prefered by the players.

Moreover, the advertising campaign directed at people 10 to 25 years old may not succeed because this age-group depend on their parents in financial, and the final decision is made by their parents. Perhaps the parents emphasize the education role of these video games rather than children's favor. Also, whether the price is affordable is an important factor that will influcence the video game's sales.

Last but not the least, even the video game is prefered by palyers and the advertising campaign succeeds, the author can not guaranteen that the sales are likely to increase dramatically because the competition in the market is not taken into account. It is possible that the competitors are  researching this kind of video games as well and their bigger market shares are great advantage for their sales, so the author ignore the serious competition in the next few months before concluding this assertion.

In sum, this argument is not convincing as it stands. To make it logically acceptable, the author would have to show that the survey is statistically reliable and represents the majority of video players. Additionally, the author must provide evidences that players can afford the price of this video games and would like to update their computers. It would be better that the author make a careful analyse about the current market share.

zhengdianhanUID: 2159569

小蜗牛，怎么不把连接发到帖子里啊