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第一次写,写到吐血还是才这么一点.go on fighting!
TOPIC: ARGUMENT147 - The following appeared in an editorial in a business magazine.
"Although the sales of Whirlwind video games have declined over the past two years, a recent survey of video-game players suggests that this sales trend is about to be reversed. The survey asked video-game players what features they thought were most important in a video game. According to the survey, players prefer games that provide lifelike graphics, which require the most up-to-date computers. Whirlwind has just introduced several such games with an extensive advertising campaign directed at people 10 to 25 years old, the age-group most likely to play video games. It follows, then, that the sales of Whirlwind video games are likely to increase dramatically in the next few months."
提纲:
1.调查可能不够具有信服力.被调查的人员是否能代表所有玩家?调查选项有限,可能会影响结果.
2.即使调查合理有效,仍然有许多因素影响销售
3.广告主要对象:10-25岁的人不一定就是属于看重 lifelike graphics的,广告也许不会那么有效,预测将是unconvinving
正文:
In this editorial, author predicts that the sales of Whirlwind video games are likely to increase dramatically in the next few months based on some flawed reasons, which I would argue in the following paragraphs.
First, the survey ,due to which the author begins his reasoning, may not be reliable enough to justify that players prefer video-games that provide better lifelike graphics more than other games. No evidence shows that the respondents are representatives of all groups of players. In addition, the survey may only list a few alternatives for respondents to choose, which may affect the final result. If either of the two is the case, the author's prediction would be unconvincing accordingly.
Secondly, Even if the survey is well conducted and is trustable, which means that Whirlwind’s new video-games are attractive, there are many other alternatives to affect the sales of a video-game, such as price, trends among players, plot of games, type of games, or even competition, nation’s regulation, and so forth. Without ruling out these reasons, the author can hardly justify that Whirlwind's game will increase its sales decrease by promoting the new games.
Thirdly, the author implicit that the advertising campaign which mainly aim at people 10 to 25 years old will attract players who are the potential clients effectively by assuming that 10 to 25 years old people belongs to the group that prefer games with better lifelike graphics. However, no relative support to this assumption is mentioned in the editorial. The effect of the advertising may not be so far-reaching unless such reliable statistics could be offered. Therefore, the author can’t convince me that Whirlwind will reverse its sales decrease.
In sum, the increase of sales may be affected by many factors .The author can’t simply draws prediction from these unconvincing statistic and assumption. To strengthen it, the author must provide more materials such as clear statistics which can show that Whirlwind’s video-games would be attractive to 10 to 25 years old players due to their better lifelike graphics, convincing evidence to justify that Whirlwind’s video-games are competitive and would sell better in the market and so on. |
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