argument168，239， issue 138 fly aw小组提纲

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argument 168，239
Typically, as people age, their bone mass decreases, making them more vulnerable to bone fractures. A recent study concludes that the most effective way to reduce the risk of fractures in later life is to take twice the recommended dose of vitamin D and calcium daily. The three-year study followed a group of French women in their eighties who were nursing-home residents. The women were given daily supplements of twice the recommended dose of vitamin D and calcium. In addition, the women participated in a light weightlifting program. After three years, these women showed a much lower rate of hip fractures than is average for their age. 【168】
1．降低髋关节骨折的发生率的办法被公认为在老年减少骨折危险的最好办法不妥，因为骨折包括多种，仅用一种不能就证明可以减少所有骨折。
2．假设通过妇女髋关节骨折发生率推断出是减少骨折的方法，需要服用药品。而髋关节骨折的发生率降低是由食用VD和C还有一些举重活动，因此不能充分说明紧紧服用药物就能减少骨折。
3．研究的证明性不强，时间的长度，人的特定环境，人的国际多受到限制。

The following appeared as an editorial in the local newspaper of Dalton. 【239】
"When the neighboring town of Williamsville adopted a curfew four months ago that made it illegal for persons under the age of 18 to loiter or idle in public places after 10 p.m., youth crime in Williamsville dropped by 27 percent during curfew hours. In Williamsville's town square, the area where its citizens were once most outraged at the high crime rate, not a single crime has been reported since the curfew was introduced. Therefore, to help reduce its own rising crime rate, the town of Dalton should adopt the same kind of curfew. A curfew that keeps young people at home late at night will surely control juvenile delinquency and protect minors from becoming victims of crime."
1．犯罪率包括成人和青少年的。文中仅从青少年的角度不免失偏
2．Williamsville广场的例子很难充分说明因为其的犯罪没有被上报就应在Dalton使用宵禁。因为可能是官员怕受处罚或疲惫于频繁上报。
3．Williamsville的宵禁禁说了不许再公共场所闲逛和逗留，并没有说要把他们留在家中。即使可以留在家中，也不一定能起到保护未成年人犯罪。因为网络犯罪等。

issue 138
138"Only through mistakes can there be discovery or progress."
部分肯定，部分否定态度
1．实践出真知。哥伦布曾经误把美洲看作遥远的东方文明，但是其对美洲的发觉，震惊了世界，让人们知晓了这片大陆的存在，从而为英国殖民开辟了新的殖民地和原料产地。没有对空想社会主义的研究，就没有马克思主义。
2．发现不足和提高的途径不仅是犯错，还可以从书籍，或身边的人或事得到启发和教育，进而改进。
3．要想发现和进步，还需要对待错误的看法。面对失败，退缩的人是很难进步的。只有勇往直前，用压力变动力才会剖析错误的产生和根源，汲取经验教训，从而走向成功。