Argument25 [黄金十二宫]第一次作业(5.24)

njutleeUID: 2179673

[size=-1]TOPIC:  ARGUMENT  25  
The following appeared in a memo from the mayor of the town of Hopewell.
"Two years ago, the town of Ocean View built a new municipal golf course and resort hotel. During the past two years, tourism in Ocean View has increased, new businesses have opened there, and Ocean View's tax revenues have risen by 30 percent. The best way to improve Hopewell's economy, and generate additional tax revenues, is to build a golf course and resort hotel similar to those in Ocean View."

Outlines:
1、时间上的先后关系不能混淆为因果关系；
2、忽略了可能导致该结果的其它因素；O经济增长很可能是多因素共同作用的，即使建golf也有一定作用，但同其他相比却不值一提；
3。即使那个措施对O作用很大，但不一定适合H，因为自然资源与人文环境的差异；

(435 words, 3h:D)
In this memo, the mayor of Hopewell asserts that by building a golf course and resort hotel, just as the city of Ocean View did two years ago, Hopewell is surely to receive a rise in it’s economy and tax revenues. To strengthen his claim, he also cites a examle of Ocean View, a city which had done these things and got subsequent rise in tourism, new business and tax revenues in the following two years. Unfortuantly, however, I find that the analysis suffers from several logical fallacies.

First of all, the mayor may has confused causes with effects concerning to those happened in Ocean View. One can not take it for granted that constructions of a golf course and resort hotel are the causes of the subseqent rise in it’s tourism and some others, just because the former happened before the latter. Unless the mayor could provide more strong materials that suppot his view, this analysis would be not convincing at all.

Secondly, the mayor fails to take into account of other possibilities that also could lead to such developments in Ocean View. Of course, it is ture that building a golf course and resort hotel may be conducive to the developents in Ocean View, but I’m afraid that all these put together may be just a small fration compared to the imfluence conducted by other factors. For example, Ocean View may has just held the Olympic Games in the two years, which had brought millions of tourists round the world and therefore greatly improved the economy there. And , most possibley, the Ocean View government had taken seveal powerful measures to enhance the enviroments for tourism and investments.

Thirdly, without analyzing the differences, such as surroundings and so on, between those two cities, the mayor hastilly assumes that such measues, which had been taken sucefully in Ocean View, would also be effective in Hopewell.  Maybe Hopewell has a poor enviromental conditions so that it would be not convinient for this city to develop his travellling industry.  It is also possible that there have already been enough of such constrcions in Hopewell, which have rare usage compard to their capacity, so there would not be any contribution to the rise of the tourism or economy except for wasting the money. So before the measure is taken, the government should consider more imformation is analyzed.

In sum, the mayor’s recommendation is not well supproted. Before the final decision is made, the mayor should take more sunstancial materials, which could really support his argument, into consideration and rule out other possibilities that would blemish his point.

[ 本帖最后由 njutlee 于 2006-5-24 19:45 编辑 ]

thisisjaneUID: 2185183

Argument25 [黄金十二宫]第一次作业(5.24)

TOPIC:  ARGUMENT  25  
The following appeared in a memo from the mayor of the town of Hopewell.
"Two years ago, the town of Ocean View built a new municipal golf course and resort hotel. During the past two years, tourism in Ocean View has increased, new businesses have opened there, and Ocean View's tax revenues have risen by 30 percent. The best way to improve Hopewell's economy, and generate additional tax revenues, is to build a golf course and resort hotel similar to those in Ocean View."

Outlines:
1、时间上的先后关系不能混淆为因果关系；
2、忽略了可能导致该结果的其它因素；O经济增长很可能是多因素共同作用的，即使建golf也有一定作用，但同其他相比却不值一提；
3。即使那个措施对O作用很大，但不一定适合H，因为自然资源与人文环境的差异；

(435 words, 3h )
In this memo, the mayor of Hopewell asserts that by building a golf course and resort hotel, just as the city of Ocean View did two years ago, Hopewell is surely to receive a rise in it’s[its] economy and tax revenues. To strengthen his claim, he also cites a[an] examle[example] of Ocean View, a city which had done these things and got subsequent rise in tourism, new business and tax revenues in the following two years. Unfortuantly[Unfortunately], however,[ Unfortunately/ however建议选其一] I find that the analysis suffers from several logical fallacies.

First of all, the mayor may has confused causes with effects concerning to those happened in Ocean View. One can not take it for granted that constructions of a golf course and resort hotel are the causes of the subseqent[subsequent] rise in it’s tourism and some others, just because the former happened before the latter.[建议删除] Unless the mayor could provide more strong materials that suppot[support] his view, this analysis would be not convincing at all.

Secondly, the mayor fails to take into account of other possibilities that also could lead to such developments in Ocean View. Of course, it is ture[true] that building a golf course and resort hotel may be conducive to the developents[developments] in Ocean View, but I’m afraid that all these put together may be just a small fration[fraction] compared to the imfluence[influence] conducted by other factors. For example, Ocean View may has just held the Olympic Games in the two years, which had brought millions of tourists round the world and therefore greatly improved the economy there. And, most possibley[possibly], the Ocean View government had taken seveal[several] powerful measures to enhance the enviroments[environment] for tourism and investments.

Thirdly, without analyzing the differences, such as surroundings and so on, between those two cities, the mayor hastilly[hastily] assumes that such measues[measures], which had been taken sucefully[successfully] in Ocean View, would also be effective in Hopewell.  Maybe Hopewell has a poor enviromental[environmental] conditions so that it would be not convinient[convenient] for this city to develop his travellling[traveling] industry.  It is also possible that there have already been enough of such constrcions[constructions] in Hopewell, which have rare usage compard[compared] to their capacity, so there would not be any contribution to the rise of the tourism or economy except for[in stead of ] wasting the money. So before the measure is taken, the government should consider [that] more imformation[information] is analyzed.

In sum, the mayor’s recommendation is not well supproted[supported]. Before the final decision is made, the mayor should take more sunstancial[substantial] materials, which could really support his argument, into consideration and rule out other possibilities that would blemish his point.
his point.

[ 本帖最后由 thisisjane 于 2006-5-25 13:18 编辑 ]

thisisjaneUID: 2185183

文章的拼写错误好像多了点，下次写完后记得检查一遍拼写哦！因为我的作文还处于入门阶段，可能修改得不是很到位，总的来说，我觉得你写的很有说服力。另外，有些单词好像出现率过高，是不是应该尝试多用不同的词来表达呢？不知道我说的对不对？

asong2004UID: 2178054

In this memo, the mayor of Hopewell asserts that by building a golf course and resort hotel, just as the city of Ocean View did two years ago, Hopewell is surely to receive a rise in it’s economy and tax revenues. To strengthen his claim, he also cites a examle of Ocean View, a city which(直接which就行了吧） had done these things and got（好像该用分词） subsequent （用consequent更合适）rise in tourism, new business and tax revenues in the following two years. Unfortuantly, however, I find that the analysis suffers from several logical fallacies.总的来说第一部分配合模版写的很工整呢。

First of all, the mayor may has confused causes with effects concerning to those happened in Ocean View. One can not take it for granted that constructions of a golf course and resort hotel are the causes of the subseqent rise in it’s tourism and some others, just because the former happened before the latter. Unless the mayor could provide more strong materials that suppot his view, this analysis would be not convincing at all.
我对这个时间上的分析不是很理解，有时间再请教下

Secondly, the mayor fails to take into account of（好像是take account of 或者take into account ） other possibilities that also could lead to such developments in Ocean View. Of course, it is ture that building a golf course and resort hotel may be conducive to the developents in Ocean View, but I’m afraid that all these put together（put together是修饰部分吗？如果是的话该用分词吧） may be just a small fration compared to （是用法错了，还是我的理解有误呢？是和其他因素对比么，如果是呢比较的两个主体好像不搭配哦）the imfluence conducted by other factors. For example, Ocean View may has just held the Olympic Games in the two years, which had brought millions of tourists round the world and therefore greatly improved the economy there. And , most possibley, the Ocean View government had taken seveal powerful measures to enhance the enviroments for tourism and investments


Thirdly, without analyzing the differences, such as surroundings and so on（这半句，建议改改）, between those two cities, the mayor hastilly assumes that such measues, which had been taken sucefully in Ocean View, would also be effective in Hopewell.  Maybe Hopewell has a poor enviromental conditions so that it would be not convinient for this city to develop his （这个人称）travellling industry.  It is also possible that there have already been enough of such constrcions in Hopewell, which have rare usage compard to their capacity, so there would not be any contribution to the rise of the tourism or economy except for wasting the money（个人感觉except部分可以不用，有中文痕迹。呵呵自我感觉啊）. So before the measure is taken（carring out .... 好像合适些）, the government should consider more imformation is analyzed（+ above）.

In sum, the mayor’s recommendation is not well supproted. Before the final decision is made, the mayor should take more sunstancial materials, which could really support his argument, into consideration and rule out other possibilities that would blemish his point.最后一段，汗标准结尾啊。呵呵跟偶得一个模版很像。

渡渡鸟UID: 145880

提出我的意见~
这片文章最主要的错误应该是：非因果关系和错误类比~~
至于时间问题可以提，但应该放在主要问题后面~
可能对文章结构的理解有差异
个人建议：）