arguments65 FLY AW作文组 (388字)

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65The following appeared in a memo from the president of a chain of cheese stores located throughout the United States.

"For many years all the stores in our chain have stocked a wide variety of both domestic and imported cheeses. Last year, however, the five best-selling cheeses at our newest store were all domestic cheddar cheeses from Wisconsin. Furthermore, a recent survey by Cheeses of the World magazine indicates an increasing preference for domestic cheeses among its subscribers. Since our company can reduce expenses by limiting inventory, the best way to improve profits in all of our stores is to discontinue stocking many of our varieties of imported cheese and concentrate primarily on domestic cheeses."

. the best way to improve profits in all of our stores is to discontinue stocking many of our varieties of imported cheese and concentrate primarily on domestic cheeses."

1.        论断的前提:这样做一定会使我们所有店的利润提高,不一定成立. 没有提供所有商店奶酪销售的情况,也没有提供顾客对奶酪的消费偏爱.
2.        论断的论据没有说服力:新开的几家店的情况不能说明所有的店情况都不好.也许他们开在W而
3.        卖的好不能说明利润最高,因为可能是因为W的价格低,并且新开业的时候销售好不能代表以后也会好,他们可能开始在做促销活动,这样的势头不会保持.
4.        杂志的调查人数是多少?如果人数少调查就不具有代表性.另外接受调查的对象是哪些人?如果被调查对象不是顾客而是其他的人则不能说明顾客对国产的奶酪的偏爱.
5.        提高利润的方法还有很多.作者没有提供资料证明这个就比别的好.
6.        结论:作者没有确定调查的真是性和代表性,也没有考虑新开的店是否具有代表性,仓促的结论可能导致商店决策的失误.
In this argument, the conclusion that they should discontinue stocking many of they varieties of imported cheese and concentrate primarily on domestic cheeses to improve their profit, the assumption seems reasonable at first glance, A careful scrutiny of this argument. However, would reveal how groundless it is.

To begin with, the speaker bases on a presupposition that the profit of the chain will no doubt increase if they discontinue stocking many varieties of imported cheese which is fallacious. The speaker failed to provide the specific selling condition which has a direct impact on the profit level. Moreover, the conclusion will not be sufficiently supported if the predilection of the customs is unknown. Therefore, the untenable precondition makes the argument unconvincing.

Even if granted that the discontinuation of the imported cheeses will improve the selling profit, we cannot ensure the profit improvement because of the following drawbacks. On one hand, comparatively bad selling of imported cheese at the newest stores is not equal to bad selling of all the other stores. Maybe the condition in Wisconsin is special which is not representative. The sole factors such as climate, income and so on of Wisconsin that varies much from the others will weaken the conclusion. On the second place, we cannot make a conclusion that high sale of domestic cheeses will lead to high profit which will be influenced by other factors. The outstanding sale at the given time may due to the successful sale-promoting activities. If so their high-sale tendency will not last long. It lacks basic evidence to foresee the favorable sale later on. Moreover, the argument derives from a survey, the statistic information of which is suspicious due to the absence of illustration of how many people have been investigated and the status of the people who accept the survey and how the poll wad conducted. The outcome is to vague to persuasive, for instance if the pollees are not right the costumers of cheeses, we cannot make sure their predilection to domestic cheeses.

There are many other ways to improve the profit of the chain, which may be better than discontinue the domestic stock.

In sum, the arguer is presumptuous to make the conclusion without knowing that whether the survey and the new stores are representative, festinate decision may lead to fallacious strategy of the stores.