Argument220 Ares第三次作业

gamblerboUID: 2212217

220.
The following appeared in an article in a magazine for writers.
       
"A recent study showed that in describing a typical day's conversation, people make an average of 23 references to watching television and only 1 reference to reading fiction. This result suggests that, compared with the television industry, the publishing and bookselling industries are likely to decline in profitability. Therefore, people who wish to have careers as writers should acquire training and experience in writing for television rather than for print media."

//ten minutes
Syllabus：
1，conclusion: therefore. <-assumption<-a recent study
2,study: A:people;B:time;C:Where;D:other information;E:
3,assumption:profitability A:cost; B:price; C:market competition
4,conclusion: other suggestion.
5,in sum:

Exercise：
In this argument, the claim that people who want to be writer should acquire training and experience in writing for television rather than for print media sounds very convincing at first thought. After all, to substantiate the conclusion, the arguer does offer a recent study to assume that television industry has more profit than publishing and bookselling industries. However, some important concerns such as the detail of the study and whether there is a causal relationship between the study and the assumption, which the arguer fails to address in the analysis, might seriously make the assumption questionable and determine the line of reasoning.

In the first place, the arguer fails to provide detailed and specific information about the recent study so that the reliability of the study is open to doubt. To begin with, can the selective sample in this study be representative of the entire samples? If most of they are children, the result of this study is not universal enough because children usually like to watch television and talk about it as the noble is generally too hard and vapid to read and most adult prefer reading fiction to watching television. What's more, is there other important information which the arguer ignores? It is entirely possible that people prefer to talk of story or joke rather than fiction. It is equally likely that the study is taken when a very popular teleplay is showing. Therefore, the information of the study is too simple and few to convince us.

In the second place, another problem that weakens the logic of this argument is that the assumption that the publishing and bookselling industries are likely to decline in profitability compared with the television industry is still problematic even though the study is true. There are a number of factors with regard to the profitability of an industry. For example, it is likely that there is a strong competition in the television industry. Although the television industry maybe have a large profit at the beginning, at last nobody can get any money from this market after more and more people and factories rushed into it. It is also possible that books have such a very low cost that the publishing and bookselling industries are not to decline in profitability while the teleplays have too high low. In a word, the arguer fails to provide sufficient evidence to support the assumption in this argument.

Last but not least, the arguer fails to take into account several other factors that might undermine the reasoning in this argument, even assuming that publishing and bookselling industries are possibly to decline in profitability compared with the television industry. Firstly, it is not all the people that are suitable to write for television though they want to be a writer. There are many writers who are good at writing the poet or the essay but not are skilled in the play or the script. Although these writer are not good playwright, they maybe a excellent novelist or poet. Secondly, are there other measures or suggestions provided to people who wish to have careers as writers? Perhaps the training and experience in writing for print media is very helpful to write teleplay. It is also possible that the people who want to be writer write fictions as well as the teleplay. Therefore, without eliminating these possibilities, the arguer fails to convince us that people who want to be writer should acquire training and experience in writing for television rather than for print media.

To sum up, the analysis is greatly undermined by the vague data about the study and the illogical reasoning. In order to better evaluate the argument, it would be necessary for the arguer to rule out all above-mentioned possibilities.

PS:
1, 有下划线的是我打错或者误写的单词。
2，前面限时，后面没有限时，因此比较长。
3，个人感觉：快读题，快构思！——太重要了。特别是在形成了模板之后！

baihe1988UID: 2203505

还是传附件吧——呵呵！
那样看起来舒服！哈～