Argument53 Ares第四次作业

veinardUID: 2195006

ARGUMENT53 - Thirteen years ago, researchers studied a group of 25 infants who showed signs of mild distress when exposed to unfamiliar stimuli such as an unusual odor or a tape recording of an unknown voice. They discovered that these infants were more likely than other infants to have been conceived in early autumn, a time when their mothers' production of melatonin-a hormone known to affect some brain functions-would naturally increase in response to decreased daylight. In a follow-up study conducted earlier this year, more than half of these children-now teenagers-who had shown signs of distress identified themselves as shy. Clearly, increased levels of melatonin before birth cause shyness during infancy and this shyness continues into later life.

In this argument, the arguer concludes that increased levels of melatonin before birth cause shyness during infancy and it continues into later life. To support this conclusion, the arguer cites the study of a group of 25 infants who showed signs of mild distress when exposed to unfamiliar stimuli, these infants were most likely to have been conceived in early and the follow-up study shows most of them identified themselves as shy. Through scrutiny we can find that this argument has several logical flaws which prevent it from convincing.

To being with, the study which was operated thirteen years ago is problematic in two aspects. First, it is unreliable for the arguer to draw any conclusion about all infants base on the statistics about only 25 infants. It's entirely possible that these 25 infants are not representative to all infants. Perhaps they are more easily to get into distress or to be shy than the general infants or their reaction to the unfamiliar stimuli is more apparent. Second, the arguer fails to prove that the signs of mild distress showed by these 25 infants were due to their shyness. Common sense tells me that showing distress when exposed to unfamiliar stimuli is the normal reaction of infants because they are more sensitive than older children and adults. Such distress may mainly be infants’ instinct or physically uncomfortable but not due to shyness. Lacking of the evidence to prove the 25 infants can represent all infants and the distress showed by them is the result of shyness, this argument is amount to a poor claim.

Even assuming that the study of the 25 infants can prove that they are shyer than other infants, no evidence shows that the reason for the shyness is the increase of their mothers' production of melatonin. The arguer doesn't explain the component or function of the melatonin; actually, he fails to show any correlation between the melatonin and infants, let alone cause-and-effect relationship. The fact that these infants were more likely to have been conceived in autumn may just show that the increase of melatonin is at least not the chief cause of the infants’ shyness, because the daylight continues to decrease in winter. In other words, if the increased lever of melatonin is the cause of infants' shyness, the infants who have been conceived in winter are shyer, but the arguer neglects such point.

Finally, even if the increased levels of melatonin before birth cause shyness during infancy, no evidence is offered to substantiate the assumption that the shyness will continues into the later life. The arguer only shows the follow-up study in which more than half of the children identified themselves as shy, however, he ignores other relevant factors may cause one's shyness such as living condition, family care, education and  social pressure. Without eliminating such possibilities, the arguer can not convince me that the increased levers of melatonin will automatically cause the shyness into later life.

In sum, the argument relies on a series of unproven assumption which make it unpersuasive. To strengthen it, the arguer should offer a study base on more reliable statistics than the only 25 infants and prove their distress to the unfamiliar stimuli is due to shyness. Besides, more evidence should be offered to prove the cause-and-effect relationship between the increased melatonin and infants---if it exists, and whether such shyness will continue into later life.

[ 本帖最后由 veinard 于 2006-7-13 11:30 编辑 ]

baihe1988UID: 2203505

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