argument53 Area站队第四次作业

普洱茶UID: 2220388

呵呵,不好意思啊，昨天发漏了这篇!:p

The arguer state that the people gain their shyness character from birth and continue to their later life is because the increased levels of melatonin before birth. To illustrate the statement , the arguer cited a research which began thirteen years ago of 25 infants who showed signs of mild distress when exposed to unfamiliar stimuli. Furthermore, on the one hand, the research show those infants are discovered they are easily have been conceived in early autumn than other babies, and it is the time when mothers’ production of melatonin would increase: on the other hand , follow-up study conducted most of these children had shown signs of distress themselves as shy. However it seems that the arguer give such a strong research, the conclusion is still unreasonable.   
Firstly, the survey methodology might be unreliable in tow respects: firstly, the research chose a group of 25 infants, the number of the group is too small so that there is the possibility that the sample are not representative of all the infants’ situation overall. Secondly, the arguer haven’t told us more credible details of the qualities about the group numbers, so there is a possibility that the 25 infants come from the same area and have more similar genes than other infants from different area, there is also the possibility that the 25 infants are not healthy enough and some of them have the born ill. Moreover, though it is said that that infants were exposed to unfamiliar stimuli such as an unusual odor or a tape recording of an unknown voice, there were no evidences to attribute the infants’ distress to the unusual odor and unknown voice hastily. Besides, it is entirely possible that there is something other factors cause the infants’ distress, like the baby maybe hungry when they were exposed to those unfamiliar stimuli or they had already have a bad mood before the experiment begun. And for the unfamiliar stimuli , there is possible that not every unfamiliar stimuli would course the distress of the infants, maybe some unfamiliar stimuli would make the infant happy.
Meanwhile, the arguer pointed vaguely that the research found the infants were more likely have been conceived than other infants in early autumn, and the time is when their mothers produced melatonin without providing the accurate statistic of the number and quality of “other infants”. And there is the possible that the infants were more likely conceived in early autumn is not because the melatonin in mothers’ body, but other reasons like many parents like to chose early autumn to conceive because the baby will born in summer, it is a good season for giving birthing. Furthermore, even if the infants were easily conceived because their mothers’ melatonin, we cannot guarantee such a melatonin which can affect some brain functions will affect the baby’s brain functions, let alone the character of shyness.
In the end , the arguer incidents a follow-up study, however , we don’t know during the period of the following whether the number of the group of the infants have not changed, and the infants hadn’t encountered some disaster that would change a person’s characters, like lose a close friend or parent. Additionally, the teenagers who had shown signs of distress identified themselves as shy, however, only according the signs to concluded these youth are shy and will continue into later life is to farfetched, and also the shyness is identified by the youth themselves , it is totally subjective.
To sum up, the argument in this conclusion is not well reasoned. TO strengthen the conclusion, the speaker must provide more fruitful and additional evidence between the melatonin and the shyness.

garyknightUID: 2227971

The arguer states that the people gain their shyness character from birth and continue to their later life are because the increased levels of melatonin before birth. To illustrate the statement, the arguer cited a research which began thirteen years ago of 25 infants who showed signs of mild distress when exposed to unfamiliar stimuli. Furthermore, on the one hand, the research show those infants are discovered they are easily have been conceived in early autumn than other babies, and it is the time when mothers’ production of melatonin would increase: on the other hand , follow-up study conducted most of these children had shown signs of distress themselves as shy. However it seems that the arguer give such a strong research, the conclusion is still unreasonable.   
Firstly, the survey methodology might be unreliable in tow respects: firstly, the research chose a group of 25 infants, the number of the group is too small so that there is the possibility that the sample are not representative of all the infants’ situation overall. Secondly, the arguer haven’t told us more credible details of the qualities about the group numbers, so there is a possibility that the 25 infants come from the same area and have more similar genes than other infants from different area, there is also the possibility that the 25 infants are not healthy enough and some of them have the born ill. Moreover, though it is said that that infants were exposed to unfamiliar stimuli such as an unusual odor or a tape recording of an unknown voice, there were no evidences to attribute the infants’ distress to the unusual odor and unknown voice hastily. Besides, it is entirely possible that there is something other factors cause the infants’ distress, like the baby maybe hungry when they were exposed to those unfamiliar stimuli or they had already have a bad mood before the experiment begun. And for the unfamiliar stimuli , there is possible that not every unfamiliar stimuli would course the distress of the infants, maybe some unfamiliar stimuli would make the infant happy.（这一段写得非常好！环环相扣，很有说服力！：）
Meanwhile, the arguer pointed vaguely that the research found the infants were more likely have been conceived than other infants in early autumn, and the time is when their mothers produced melatonin without providing the accurate statistic of the number and quality of “other infants”. And there is the possible that the infants were more likely conceived in early autumn is not because the melatonin in mothers’ body, but other reasons like many parents like to chose early autumn to conceive because the baby will born in summer, it is a good season for giving birthing.（这个观点……持保留意见） Furthermore, even if the infants were easily conceived because their mothers’ melatonin, we cannot guarantee such a melatonin which can affect some brain functions will affect the baby’s brain functions, let alone the character of shyness.（这一点才比较有说服力！）
In the end , the arguer incidents a follow-up study, however , we don’t know during the period of the following whether the number of the group of the infants have not changed（这一点不错！我没有想到，厉害！）, and the infants hadn’t encountered some disaster that would change a person’s characters, like lose a close friend or parent. Additionally, the teenagers who had shown signs of distress identified themselves as shy, however, only according the signs to concluded these youth are shy and will continue into later life is to farfetched, and also the shyness is identified by the youth themselves , it is totally subjective.
To sum up, the argument in this conclusion is not well reasoned. To strengthen the conclusion, the speaker must provide more fruitful and additional evidence between the melatonin and the shyness.

这篇文章写得非常好，观点非常有攻击力！