Argument47 火山喷发导致地球变冷, 感觉稍顺一些.大家帮忙拍拍

abawtresbonUID: 2164961

提纲:
1.没有足够证据表明地球有实质意义得变冷
2.即使证实,也没有理由排除小行星撞地球的可能性,只因为没有提到
3.声音无法正是是火山的,也可能有其他理由导致地球变冷

TOPIC: ARGUMENT47 - Scientists studying historical weather patterns have discovered that in the mid-sixth century, Earth suddenly became significantly cooler. Although few historical records survive from that time, some accounts found both in Asia and Europe mention a dimming of the sun and extremely cold temperatures. Either a huge volcanic eruption or a large meteorite colliding with Earth could have created a large dust cloud throughout Earth's atmosphere that would have been capable of blocking enough sunlight to lower global temperatures significantly. A large meteorite collision, however, would probably create a sudden bright flash of light, and no extant historical records of the time mention such a flash. Some surviving Asian historical records of the time, however, mention a loud boom that would be consistent with a volcanic eruption. Therefore, the cooling was probably caused by a volcanic eruption.
WORDS: 397 -à473         TIME: 0:30:00+10:00        DATE: 2006-7-18

In this argument, the arguer claims that the cooling of earth in the mid-sixth century was probably caused by a volcanic eruption. However, close and careful scrutiny of the evidence cited reveals that it lends little credible support for the author's contention.

To begin with, the argument fails to provide enough evidence that bolster the cooling exactly happened in the mid-sixth century. The author asserts that few records survive form that time, yet some accounts mention dimming of sum and extremely cold temperatures. Common sense informs us it is presumptuous to theorize before obtaining sufficient data and evidence. So it is very likely that the mere evidence mentioning in the limited materials is just indicating some occasional phenomenon at that time in those areas. It is equally possible that the missing or unpreserved records reveal that notwithstanding those days extremely hot, other days were quite warm or hot. Without this sort of information, it is too hasty too judge that Earth had become significantly cooler from then on.  Moreover, everyone has his or her own feeling about "cold" and "warm". Perhaps, the recorders of that time felt a little cold but he described it as "extremely cold".

Furthermore, even if the cooling did happen, the arguer unwarrantedly assumes that no historical records mentioning meteorite colliding means no meteorite colliding has ever happened then. Since there is no accurate information indicates this phenomenon never happened. It is entirely possible that a sudden bright flash or more has occurred, but no one has ever put it down, or the records got missed over time. Without ruling out these possibilities, the argument cannot convince me that the cooling is totally owe to the eruption of volcanoes.

Finally, even if such kind of flash did not come about at that time, there might be other possibilities that cause the cooling on the earth. As we know, there are other factors that could be explainable for the origin of a loud boom. It might be generated form an earthquake rather than an eruption. Naturally, earthquake seems difficult to render the sun dim. What is more, it might be attributed to lasting clouds, which covered the sun to make it looks obscured. In this sense, it is clouds rather than smoke and gas of eruption cause a dimming of the sun. In short, unless having acquired full and accurate evidence and data towards this problem, we cannot evaluate this argument properly.

In sum, the reasoning behind attributing the cooling to volcanic eruption is unwarranted as presented above. To strengthen the argument, we need more abundant and sufficient evidence to convince us that the cooling really happened at that time. Moreover, if this prerequisite has been supported strongly, the arguer should also rule out other alternatives that may also contribute to the cooling to make this argument reasonable at best.

helenlhhUID: 2127690

To begin with, the argument fails to provide enough evidence that bolster the cooling exactly happened in the mid-sixth century. The author asserts that few records survive form that time, yet some accounts mention dimming of sum and extremely cold temperatures. Common sense informs us it is presumptuous to theorize before obtaining sufficient data and evidence. So it is very likely that the mere evidence mentioning in the limited materials is just indicating some occasional phenomenon at that time in those areas. It is equally possible that the missing or unpreserved records reveal that notwithstanding those days extremely hot（我想你应该是想写cold吧）, other days were quite warm or hot. Without this sort of information, it is too hasty too judge that Earth had become significantly cooler from then on.  Moreover, everyone has his or her own feeling about "cold" and "warm". Perhaps, the recorders of that time felt a little cold but he described it as "extremely cold"这段的观点还可以有另外一个支持，就是亚洲和欧洲只是地球的一部分，而weather patterns应该是全球范围内的，其他地方的气候我们并不知道
Finally, even if such kind of flash did not come about at that time, there might be other possibilities that cause the cooling on the earth.（我觉得这句写的直接一点好：即使排除小行星碰撞，还有其他因素导致气候变冷，用flash显得不很明确。另外最好再列举一下可能的因素，会更有说服力） As we know, there are other factors that could be explainable for the origin of a loud boom. It might be generated form an earthquake rather than an eruption. Naturally, earthquake seems difficult to render the sun dim. What is more, it might be attributed to lasting clouds, which covered the sun to make it looks obscured. In this sense, it is clouds rather than smoke and gas of eruption cause a dimming of the sun. In short, unless having acquired full and accurate evidence and data towards this problem, we cannot evaluate this argument properly.

helenlhhUID: 2127690

TOPIC: ARGUMENT38 - The following memo appeared in the newsletter of the West Meria Public Health Council.
"An innovative treatment has come to our attention that promises to significantly reduce absenteeism in our schools and workplaces. A study reports that in nearby East Meria, where fish consumption is very high, people visit the doctor only once or twice per year for the treatment of colds. Clearly, eating a substantial amount of fish can prevent colds. Since colds are the reason most frequently given for absences from school and work, we recommend the daily use of Ichthaid, a nutritional supplement derived from fish oil, as a good way to prevent colds and lower absenteeism."
WORDS: 623          TIME: 0:37:40          DATE: 2006-7-21

In this argument, the arguer recommend that people in West Meria should have Ichthaid to prevent colds and lower absenteeism. However, careful examiation and scrutiny reveals that the evidence cited in this argument lends little support to the arguer's assertion.

To begin with, the fact that fish consumption in East Meria(EM) is very high does not necessarily follows that eating a substantial amount of fish can prevent colds. To bolster his claim, the arguer presents the evidence that people in EM seldom visit the doctor for curing colds. However, this is not the case. The argument does not provide us sufficient information of the health conditions of people in EM. It is entirely possible that they often catch colds but are not willing to go to hospitals for the treatment for the reason that they regard colds are small disease(disease太严重了，这里不恰当，最好用illness) and therefore require less seriousness, or just because they consider the hospital fee is too high to afford. Without the information above, the arguer cannot assert that these people are healthy enough. Besides, the arguer fail to inform us whether fish in East Meria is all consumed by native people, it is as likely that native people there only consume a small percent of the total amount so that the arguer cannot build connection between the health condition of EM's people with fish consumption.(这一点我个人不是很赞同，我理解的原文意思就是当地人吃鱼吃得多，完全没有远销外地之意。鉴于你这一段里写得有点太多，我认为可以把这点省掉) Moreover, even if people there eat a substantial amount of fish, it still cannot support that people prevent themselves from colds are due to, or only due to diets including fish. It might be attributed to people's own habits of exercise, other beneficial food consumption, or their regular life styles. Perhaps, these people are prone to drink a cup of tea in the morning, while something in the tea is quite conductive to prevent from catching cold. In short, it is too presumptuous for the arguer to judge the health condition of people there according to the hospital records and fish consumption merely.

Further, even if fish consumption is at last justified as the very reason that contribute to people's health in EM, the fact that the daily use of Ichthaid could prevent colds cannot support the conclusion that it could prevent colds and thus hinder lower absenteeism. What we first shed our doubt on is whether those people who claim they suffer cold and then are absent from school and work are really the case. It is entirely possible that this is merely an excuse to absenteeism. They might not catch（用have较好,表状态，catch表动作） cold but make an excuse to do what they want to do. In this sense, no matter how much fish they eat or other solutions are adopted, they will still be absent.

On the other hand最好换一个，用在这里好象不合适, even if those who claim to be ill are actual ill, the daily use of Ichthaid might not replace the fish in EM to prevent colds. The arguer does not offer us any more information of the components of Ichthaid. Perhaps, the nutritional supplement in it is quite different from the fish in EM, which has special components that could effectively prevent colds. Or perhaps, the effective conponent in the raw material of fish vanished after the process of later refining. Without informing us such information, we cannot believe that this kind of pills could prevent colds.

In sum, the reasoning behind recommending people to take the daily use of Ichthaid is not cogent at all. Before we believe this recommendation, the arguer should tell us whether suffering from cold is merely an excuse. Moreover, to better evaluate this argument, we also need to know the relationship between fish consumption and that people there seldom visit the doctor for curing colds, as well as the effectiveness of the Ichthaid in preventing colds.