ARGUMENT45 同主题第六期-pewcg8留链互拍

pewcg8UID：2143213

１．        global warming trends that have caused the sea ice to melt是否鹿居住地区气温上升，冰就融化呢？也许在局部气温会下降？或者气温上升的趋势不足以使冰融化？或者气温上升的时段不会长到影响鹿的迁移？
２．        猎人观察到鹿的数量下降只能代表一个地区的趋势，但是是否这些趋势代表了整个北极鹿的种群的数量下降呢？同时，鹿的数目就算真的下降，那么这些下降是否是气温上升，导致冰融化造成的呢？虽然同时发生，但作者没有提供论据建立因果关系，同时也没有排除其他原因导致鹿的数目下降．（质疑论据２，３之间的因果关系）
３．        作者的结论值得质疑，即使上面的两个论据及他们之间的关系成立，鹿的迁移习惯变化和鹿的数量减少之间作者没有建立可靠的因果关系．迁移习惯改变，那么鹿是否可能适应了这种改变？毕竟气温变暖是一个缓慢的趋势，足够使得物种适应变化（这里再怎么说也不要提到进化论），另外文中提到，Their habitat is limited to areas warm enough to sustain the plants on which they feed，那么温度的上升是否会造成它们的食物供应变的充足，反而使得鹿群增加呢？

正文：
TOPIC: ARGUMENT45 - The following appeared as an editorial in a wildlife journal.

"Arctic deer live on islands in Canada's arctic region. They search for food by moving over ice from island to island during the course of a year. Their habitat is limited to areas warm enough to sustain the plants on which they feed, and cold enough, at least some of the year, for the ice to cover the sea separating the islands, allowing the deer to travel over it. Unfortunately, according to reports from local hunters, the deer populations are declining. Since these reports coincide with recent global warming trends that have caused the sea ice to melt, we can conclude that the decline in arctic deer populations is the result of deer being unable to follow their age-old migration patterns across the frozen sea."
WORDS: 541          TIME: 0:40:38          DATE: 2006-7-27

In the editorial, the author argues that coinciding with the global warming trends, the decline of Arctic deer populations in Canada results from the fact that these deer are unable to follow their descants' migration habit. Although the author's claim seems plausible in some aspects, it is absolutely ungrounded and illogical after holistically consideration.

In the first place, the trends of global warming might not be able to affect these deer's habitat, in other words, it is possible that the temperature of Canada's arctic region decreases during the time when other places of the world encounter with hot seasons. What is more, even if these deer's home becomes hotter a little, one will be doubt that whether this increase is great enough to result in the melting of the ice. If the average temperature is minus 20 degree centigrade all the year round, then an augment of one degree centigrade makes no sense. Another possibility that we have to consider is the periods of time of melting. While sea ice melt at the period of time when Arctic deer stay at one place and raise their children, these trends will surely not affect the migration pattern of these deer.

In addition, the reports of hunters are somewhat credible but mean nothing in this situation. As we know, hunters hunt their quarries in certain times of the year and they only go to places that are suitable of hunting. Therefore, their reports only reflect hunting condition concerning some certain regions. We already know that these deer move among islands during the course of the year, it is possible that some families of deer migrate to other places and those hunters will be likely to witness a decline in the number of deer. What is more important, even if we admit that the number of deer in the whole region do decrease, we can not draw the conclusion that this decline is caused by global warming although they happen at the same time, and which will be discussed thoroughly in the following paragraph.

The cause-and-effect relationship that the author makes great efforts to establish does seem sound in some aspects, but after careful thought, happening at the same time does not mean that these two phenomena are relevant, not to mention a cause and effect relation. The author fails to rule out other possible factor, such as environmental pollution and excessive hunting. Furthermore, whether can the change in deer's migration pattern affect their ability to live is to be determined. As mentioned in the argument, these deer's food supplies are limited to areas warm enough, then it is highly possible that global warming ensures these deer have more than enough food to eat and therefore enlarge their populations. Also, maybe only being unable to migrate is no big problem to Arctic deer, as the trend of global warming take place in a long term, these deer might accommodate to it comfortably and find a new way to survive.

In sum, the author's claim seems logical, but carefully examining of those evidences and reasoning goes to show several vital flaws in the author's argument. The author has to find more relevant evidences and better reestablish his lines of reasoning to make a good argument.

[ 本帖最后由 pewcg8 于 2006-7-27 12:29 编辑 ]

morallreyUID：2191298

In the editorial, the author argues that coinciding with the global warming trends, the decline of Arctic deer populations in Canada results from the fact that these deer are unable to follow their descants' migration habit. Although the author's claim seems plausible in some aspects, it is absolutely ungrounded and illogical after holistically (holistic) consideration.

In the first place, the trends of global warming might not be able to affect these deer's habitat, in other words, it is possible that the temperature of Canada's arctic region decreases during the time when other places of the world encounter with hot seasons. What is more, even if these deer's home becomes hotter a little, one will be(be多余) doubt that whether this increase is great enough to result in the melting of the ice. If the average temperature is minus 20 degree centigrade all the year round, then an augment of one degree centigrade makes no sense. Another possibility that we have to consider is the periods of time of melting. While sea ice melt at the period of time when Arctic deer stay at one place and raise their children, these trends will surely not affect the migration pattern of these deer.

In addition, the reports of hunters are somewhat credible but mean nothing in this situation. As we know, hunters hunt their quarries in certain times of the year and they only go to places that are suitable of （for） hunting. Therefore, their reports only reflect hunting condition concerning some certain regions. We already know that these deer move among islands during the course of the year, it is possible that some families of deer migrate to other places and those hunters will be likely to witness a decline in the number of deer. What is more important, even if we admit that the number of deer in the whole region do decrease, we can not draw the conclusion that this decline is caused by global warming although they happen at the same time, and which will be discussed thoroughly in the following paragraph.

The cause-and-effect relationship that the author makes great efforts to establish does seem sound in some aspects, but after careful thought, happening at the same time does not （加个necessarily好点）mean that these two phenomena are relevant, not to mention a cause and effect relation. The author fails to rule out other possible factor（factors）, such as environmental pollution and excessive hunting. Furthermore, whether can the change in deer's migration pattern affect their ability to live is to be determined. As mentioned in the argument, these deer's food supplies are limited to areas warm enough, then it is highly possible that global warming ensures these deer have more than enough food to eat and therefore enlarge their populations. Also, maybe only being unable to migrate is no big problem to Arctic deer, as the trend of global warming take place in a long term, these deer might accommodate to it comfortably and find a new way to survive.

In sum, the author's claim seems logical, but carefully examining of those evidences and reasoning goes to show several vital flaws in the author's argument. The author has to find more relevant evidences and better reestablish his lines of reasoning to make a good argument.


楼主的文章分析的很深刻，用词准确，字数也比较可观。
但结尾似乎比较摸板化，可适当参入对argument的分析，更明确的提出一些建议似乎要好一些。

请楼住激扬文字，拍拍这篇：
:)https://bbs.gter.net/viewthre ... e%3D1#pid1768882073