Argument48 [越洋农场站队]pewcg8超时两分钟

pewcg8UID: 2143213

ARGUMENT48.The following appeared in a newspaper article published in the country of Corpora.

"Twenty years ago, one half of all citizens in Corpora met the standards for adequate physical fitness as then defined by the national advisory board on physical fitness. Today, the board says that only one quarter of all citizens are adequately fit and suggests that spending too much time using computers may be the reason. But since overall fitness levels are highest in regions of Corpora where levels of computer ownership are also highest, it is clear that using computers has not made citizens less physically fit. Instead, as shown by this year's unusually low expenditures on fitness-related products and services, the recent decline in the economy is most likely the cause, and fitness levels will improve when the economy does."

20年前，Corpora的市有一半都达到了那时由国家健身顾问委员会所定义的充分的健康标准。今天，委员会指出所有市只有四分之一的市足够健康，并指出长时间的使用电脑可能是原因。但是由于在Corpora电脑拥有量最高的地区也是总体健康水平最高的地区，显然使用电脑并没有导致市体质的下降。相反，今年用于健身产品和服务的花费低的异乎寻常，这表明最近经济的衰退最可能是原因，当经济复苏了健康水平也会随之提高。
要点：（四月第一版）
1.论断的前提不一定成立。论断的前提是经济形式好了，人们在健康产品和服务上的开支就会上升，但这不一定成立。论者没有提供资料证明目前这方面的低开销主要是由于经济不景气造成，或是人们的钱多了就一定会增加这方面的开支。也有可能是目前健康产品和服务不能满足大家的要求，或是服务质量不好。
2.论证的论据没有说服力。论据说C城整体健康水平高同时电脑拥有量高，所以证明电脑没有造成健康下降。首先C城目前的健康水平如何论者没有提供资料，只是说二十年前C城一半的居民达标，那么目前在全国只有四分之一的人达标的情况下，C城的情况如何，我们不能排除C城比全国水平低的可能。其次电脑拥有量高不代表使用电脑时间长。
3.论者结论武断：经济形式好了，人们在与健康有关的产品和服务上的开支增加了，人们健康水平就会提升。但没有证据证明这项开支与人的健康水平有必然联系，甚至没有证据证明这些产品和服务一定能提高人们的健康水平。
4.忽略他因，健康是否还与其他因素有关呢？
分析：（七月第二版）
论据１：suggests that spending too much time using computers may be the reason（过度使用电脑导致体质下降）
论据２：overall fitness levels are highest in regions of Corpora where levels of computer ownership are also highest（在Corpora电脑拥有量最高的地区也是总体健康水平最高的地区）
论据３：using computers has not made citizens less physically fit（使用电脑并没有导致市体质的下降）
论据４：健身产品和服务的花费低的异乎寻常，这表明最近经济的衰退最可能是原因
结论：fitness levels will improve when the economy does
１．这个定义身体健康的标准在２０年内是否发生了变化，作者没有提及，很可能由于社会经济发展，人民生活水平提高了，人们更多的关注自己的健康，对健康提出了更多的要求，那么，在更为严格的标准下，可能会有较以前少的人符合健康标准，如果单单是这样一个原因引起的健康下降的话，那么可能就跟作者说的短期的经济发展关系不大，经济复苏的这样一个短暂的时间内，健康提高也是不现实的．
２．但是由于在Corpora电脑拥有量最高的地区也是总体健康水平最高的地区，显然使用电脑并没有导致市体质的下降．作者这样的说法很荒谬的，电脑拥有数量最多的地区可能也是生活条件最好的地区，那么他们的健康水平最高不足为奇，很可能使用电脑大大的影响了他们的健康状况，但是经过影响之后可能他们的健康状况可能还是最高的．
３．健身产品和服务的花费低的异乎寻常和经济衰退之间是否有必然的联系？是否有别的原因导致了这样的现象？比如某个服务公司破产导致市场上的产品缩水？或者某个公司的丑闻影响到了这样一个市场的声誉？这些都是其他的可能性，但是作者没有排除．

正文：
TOPIC: ARGUMENT48 - The following appeared in a newspaper article published in the country of Corpora.

"Twenty years ago, one half of all citizens in Corpora met the standards for adequate physical fitness as then defined by the national advisory board on physical fitness. Today, the board says that only one quarter of all citizens are adequately fit and suggests that spending too much time using computers may be the reason. But since overall fitness levels are highest in regions of Corpora where levels of computer ownership are also highest, it is clear that using computers has not made citizens less physically fit. Instead, as shown by this year's unusually low expenditures on fitness-related products and services, the recent decline in the economy is most likely the cause, and fitness levels will improve when the economy does."
WORDS: 459          TIME: 0:32:14          DATE: 2006-7-29

This argument is absolutely ungrounded. The author of the article makes logical mistakes by simply draw his conclusion that fitness levels will go up after economic increase from dubious evidences such as a report from a national board as well as a assumption made by the author himself, all of which will be discussed below.

In the first place, whether the definition of health and fitness has changed over these years are not mentioned in the argument. Twenty years would be such a long time that people's living conditions have changed greatly. These changes will surely cause the definition of fitness to become quite different in our points of view. As people become to earn a lot more and live better, they would be more aware of their physical as well as mental health. This trend might make this national advisory board revise its standard of fitness. The change might be more strict rules and also a shift from only physical to both physical and mental. If it is the very reason that has caused the result of a decline in Corpora's citizen's fitness, then neither the use of computer nor the recession in economy has any relevance with the decline.

Also, as mentioned in the article, the high levels of computer ownership coincide with the high levels of citizens' health. This coincidence might just be a coincidence, as no direct relationship is established by the author. It is entirely possible, that this high level of ownership might result from the high quality of living standards in the very area. When people can afford computers, their incomes will be enough for caring thoroughly about their health and therefore makes this area the highest health level. The author does not rule out the possibility that their levels of fitness are affected greatly by the computers but still hold their highest position in fitness throughout the country.

In the third place, no cause and effect relation is set up by the author between the low expenditures of health-related services and the decline in economy. Other factors might also be the reason. For instance, there might be a bankrupt company with the largest sales of this health food, or there might be a scandal in a big company which offers many kinds of fitness services. Another possibility might be a trend of keeping fitness by practice activity proposed by national committee for sports. Without preclude all these possibility, the author can't persuade me to believe in his conclusion.

All in all, this illogical argument lack enough evidence to set up relationships the author makes efforts to establish. More evidences are needed concerning the changes in people's health condition after using computer and the real reason of the decline in health related market.

bearhjUID: 2218990

This argument is absolutely ungrounded. The author of the article makes logical mistakes by simply draw his conclusion that fitness levels will go up after economic increase from dubious evidences such as a report from a national board as well as a(an) assumption made by the author himself, all of which will be discussed below.

In the first place, whether the definition of health and fitness has changed over these years are not mentioned in the argument. Twenty years would be such a long time that people's living conditions have changed greatly. (这里讲得有点绝对了，考虑一下用enable）These changes will surely（argument里面尽量避免用这么绝对的词吧） cause the definition of fitness to become quite different in our points of view. As people become to earn a lot more and live better, they would be more aware of their physical as well as mental health. This trend might make this national advisory board revise its standard of fitness. The change might be more strict rules and also a shift from only physical to both physical and mental. If it is the very reason that has caused the result of（result of可以去掉） a decline in Corpora's citizen's fitness, then neither the use of computer nor the recession in economy has any relevance with the decline.

Also, as mentioned in the article, the high levels of computer ownership coincide with the high levels of citizens' health. This coincidence might just be a coincidence, as no direct relationship is established by the author. It is entirely possible, that this high level of ownership might result from the high quality of living standards in the very area. When people can afford computers, their incomes will be（what enough? high enough?) enough for caring thoroughly about their health and therefore makes this area the highest health level（这里有点awkward,换个句型可能会好一点，或者可以去掉）. The author does not rule out the possibility that their levels of fitness are affected greatly by the computers but still hold their highest position in fitness throughout the country.

In the third place, no cause and effect relation is set up by the author between the low expenditures of health-related services and the decline in economy. Other factors might also be the reason. For instance, there might be a bankrupt company with the largest sales of this health food, or there might be a scandal in a big company which offers many kinds of fitness services（这个例子有点牵强。low expenditure是针对citizen来说的，对于这类型的公司有多少，或者发生什么变动没有直接的联系）. Another possibility might be a trend of keeping fitness by practice activity proposed by national committee for sports（个人认为，fitness-related services包括那种健身俱乐部之类的室内运动场所，最好能够指出是out-door sports). Without preclude(precluding?) all these possibility(possibilities), the author can't persuade me to believe in his conclusion.

All in all, this illogical argument lack(lacks) enough evidence to set up relationships the author makes efforts to establish(有点罗嗦了，看看改成这样好不好一点：this illogical argument fails to establish the intended causal relation by providing insufficient evidence.). More evidences are needed concerning the changes in people's health condition after using computer and the real reason of the decline in health related market（理由？）.


思路和语言都很不错，看得出来是准备充足的。
不过在B2那一段论述不够直接，有点绕圈子的感觉。建议单刀直入进行驳斥。
结尾那里，我觉得，作者认为已经提供了real reason of the decline in health related market，只是你觉得不对而已，况且也不一定是市场需求减少了，也可能是成本降低的缘故（都是最近猛看argument惹的祸）。
嘿嘿，菜鸟一个，不知道说得对不对~~~~