Argument53 [0610G急速末班车小组]第二次作业

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题目：ARGUMENT53 - Thirteen years ago, researchers studied a group of 25 infants who showed signs of mild distress when exposed to unfamiliar stimuli such as an unusual odor or a tape recording of an unknown voice. They discovered that these infants were more likely than other infants to have been conceived in early autumn, a time when their mothers' production of melatonin-a hormone known to affect some brain functions-would naturally increase in response to decreased daylight. In a follow-up study conducted earlier this year, more than half of these children-now teenagers-who had shown signs of distress identified themselves as shy. Clearly, increased levels of melatonin before birth cause shyness during infancy and this shyness continues into later life.
字数：432          用时：1:32:49          日期：2006-8-9

1．调查取样人数太少，不具有代表性。
2．害羞与多种因素有关，不见得是m激素的影响。
3．调查没说明究竟多大比例的孩子害羞，仅仅过半不具说服力。


The arguer recommends that before birth the increased levels of melatonin (a kind of hormone) of the mothers are the reasons that infants suffer shyness which continues into their later life. This conclusion is based on the study made thirteen years ago to show that such infants are more likely to have been conceived in early autumn. Meanwhile, the arguer cites the study conducted lately which shows half of the children suffer shyness nowadays.This argument is unconvicing for several critical flaws.

First of all, the argument is based on a false survey. According to the cited study, a group of only 25 infants who showed signs of mild distress when exposed to unfamiliar stimuli is surveyed, which is too fewer as a sample. As we all know, there are billions of people in the world, millions of whom are infants. In this case, the shyness of the infants might has nothing to do with melatonin just because the sample is too small. Moreover, the arguer fails to make it clear that whether the infants are of the same gender or the same race, which we know may cause the similarities and differences in characters among them. Without enough information about the infants, it is hasty to make the conclusion that the shyness is relevant with melatonin.

In addition, the arguer fails to concern several other involved factors which may influence the children's shyness. For instance, characters are inherited from their parents, thus are their parents shy? What's more, one's character might be greatly affected by his/her experience during the growth. Then the experiences of the children should also be taken into account. Nevertheless, the arguer fails to provide any information about all these potential factors.

Last but not least, the argument is not reasoned well. As the study shows, more than half of the children indentify themselves as shy, which is unconvicing. The arguer fails to make clear the exact proportion of the children who suffer shyness. Acctually, there might be thirteen children who are shy and twelve who are not. In that case, the conclusion is drawn too hasty. Therefore, concrete protortion of the children who are shy is necessary for the argument.

In summary, the conclusion reached in this argument is invalid and misleading. To make the argument more convicing, the arguer would have to provide a survey which has a big enough sample.  Moreover, the arguer must present more evidence to rule out other possible cause of the children's shyness. Additionally, the arguer need to offer concrete protortion of the shy children in order to make the argument persuasive.

思路不流畅，总感觉批驳时缺少点气势，求达人指点。