argument218 smile A 第十次作业

猫猫寿司UID: 2219543

218The following appeared in a memorandum from the president of Hyper-Go Toy Company.

"Last year, sales of our Fierce Fighter toy airplane declined sharply, even though the toy had been a top seller for three years. Our customer surveys show that parents are now more worried about youthful violence and are concerned about better education for their children. Therefore, to maintain profits we should discontinue all our action toys and focus exclusively on a new line of educational toys. Several other toy companies have already begun marketing educational toys and report sales increases last year of 200 percent. And since the average family income is growing, sales of new Hyper-Go toys should also increase."
outline:1 incomplete thought: not the worried thought ,but unchanged appearance of the toy or management, no evidence should discount “all”
2 survey not reliable and concern may not lead to the increase in the toy demand
3 false assumption increase of the sales also should take into account the competition and the money allocation

The president makes the decision to discount all action toys seeing a sales decline of a certain action toy and a divert of parents concern, and to focus exclusively on a new line of educational toys considering the survey showing parents concern as well as other companies’ growing sale. However, if we exam carefully, we could find the argument to suffer from some fallacies and might give a wrong direction to the company.
In the first place, the arguer makes the assumption attributing the sharp decline of Fierce Fighter toy airplane to the parents’ concern of youthful violence as well as better education, and accordingly decides to cut the production of all action toys, without considering the other facts that may influence the sale of that toy such as the unchanged appearance of the toy since it has been a top seller for three years and now lost the appealing to the children, or the new action toys’ debut which might attract most of the children from the old one. Before ruling out these possibilities, I can not be convinced by the president’s hasty generalization to cut the production of all the action toys.

Secondly, the speaker makes a further assumption of the increase demand of educational toys, which is totally ungrounded as it stands. The president fails to provide us any detailed information about the survey showing the parents’ concern about the youthful violence and better education, which he relied on to make the decision, thus we can not assure the parents involved in the survey could represent parents in all and draw any reliable conclusion from it. Besides, granted the parents’ concern is universal, the argument still fails to illustrate that these parents would buy educational toys instead of action ones in order to solve the problem. It stands a good chance that they will still buy action toys for their boys as an entertainment while invest in other fields such as schools or training classes to attain their goal of child education. Thus, we can not see a sure increase demand of the educational toy as the speaker assumes in the argument.

Last but not the least, the president may be disappointed for not gaining the foreseeable profit he supposes to have due to the incomplete thought of other facts which may influence the profit. The other companies’ success in selling educational toys may serve as a counterexample for the increasing profit of Hyper-Go Toy Company, for the president ignores the competition between his company and other toy companies. It is entirely possible that the market demands have already been satisfied by those companies and there is not a single evidence showing that the parents would choose the educational toy produced by Hyper-Go Toy Company. Therefore, the company might not gain the profit in educational toy market while lose the market of action toy due to a halt to produce those toys.

To sum up, the president needs to provide precise data about the survey and exercise a more comprehensive analysis of the information he possesses in order to make this argument more persuasive and give a right direction to the toy company.
48分钟
526字

xinxinwUID: 2144273

The president makes the decision to discount all action toys seeing a sales decline of a certain action toy and a divert of parents concern, and to focus exclusively on a new line of educational toys considering the survey showing parents concern as well as other companies’ growing sale. However, if we exam carefully, we could find the argument to suffer from some fallacies and might give a wrong direction to the company.

In the first place, the arguer makes the assumption attributing the sharp decline of Fierce Fighter toy airplane to the parents’ concern of youthful violence as well as better education, and accordingly decides to cut the production of all action toys, without considering the other facts that may influence the sale of that toy such as the unchanged appearance of the toy since it has been a top seller for three years and now lost the appealing to the children, or the new action toys’ debut which might attract most of the children from the old one. Before ruling out these possibilities, I can not be convinced by the president’s hasty generalization to cut the production of all the action toys.

Secondly, the speaker makes a further assumption of the increase demand of educational toys, which is totally ungrounded as it stands. The president fails to provide us any detailed information about the survey showing the parents’ concern about the youthful violence and better education, which he relied on to make the decision, thus we can not assure the parents involved in the survey could represent parents in all and draw any reliable conclusion from it. Besides, granted the parents’ concern is universal, the argument still fails to illustrate that these parents would buy educational toys instead of action ones in order to solve the problem. It stands a good chance that they will still buy action toys for their boys as an entertainment while invest in other fields such as schools or training classes to attain their goal of child education. Thus, we can not see a sure increase demand of the educational toy as the speaker assumes in the argument.

Last but not the least, the president may be disappointed for not gaining the foreseeable profit he supposes to have due to the incomplete thought of other facts which may influence the profit. The other companies’ success in selling educational toys may serve as a counterexample for the increasing profit of Hyper-Go Toy Company, for the president ignores the competition between his company and other toy companies. It is entirely possible that the market demands have already been satisfied by those companies and there is not a single evidence showing that the parents would choose the educational toy produced by Hyper-Go Toy Company. Therefore, the company might not gain the profit in educational toy market while lose the market of action toy due to a halt to produce those toys.

To sum up, the president needs to provide precise data about the survey and exercise a more comprehensive analysis of the information he possesses in order to make this argument more persuasive and give a right direction to the toy company.

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