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ARGUMENT99The following appeared in a memo from the economic minister of the small country Paucia.
"Using a newly developed variety of seed, farmers in our neighboring country Abundia produced 80 percent more rice last year than in any previous year. To increase the income of farmers in our own country, we should encourage them to cultivate this new variety of rice rather than some of their traditional crops. Such high yields of rice will also improve our country's balance of trade by enabling us to begin exporting it."
In this argument, the economic minister of the small country Paucia recommends that Paucia should encourage their farmers to cultivate a newly developed variety of rice instead of traditional crops. To substantiate it, the minister relies in part on a neighboring country's sample, in part on a assumption, however, careful examination of this recommendation reveals it lends little credibility to the conclusion.
A threshold problem with this recommendation is that the minister conducts a false analogy between Paucia and Abundia. The minister simply assumes that Paucia, if use the new seed, will increase their production as Abundia, but the minister does not provide any evidence that they are comparable. The climate which effect the growth of seed to large extent may differs. At the same time, the condition of the soil, farmer’s skill will also be different. Hence, without accounting for the difference, though the new seed will increase the production proved effective in Abundia, there is no guarantee that it will work as well in Paucia.
Even assuming that newly developed seed will succeed in Paucia as In Abundia, replacing their traditional crops for new is unpersuasive. On one hand, the minister fails to provide sufficient evidence that this new variety is better than traditional. In case that the traditional crops still produce more than the new variety, it is gratuitous for Paucia to change for the new variety. In a word, in absence of the production of the traditional and new variety, we cannot presumptuous change for the new variety.
Last but not least记得在哪里见过说不要用Last B N L说是不正式, the aguer assume that high yield of rice can improve the balance of Paucia's trade by enabling exporting it. The minister does not provide relevant evidence to support it. Chances are that the production although increased much cannot satisfy the domestic supply. Even they can export, as we know, the international marketing price will be influenced by many factors. It is entirely possible that the international price is lower than that of domestic, or perhaps the price of Paucia is not competitive in international market. Either of the scenarios, if true, will serve to undermine好! the minister's conclusion that the income of farmers will increase.
In sum, the recommendation is not well reasoning as it stands, to strengthen it , the minister should provide more evidence that the two countries are comparable, to better evaluate the recommendation, we also need to know the comparison between the traditional and new variety, along with the price in the international market.
写的很棒!没有什么问题,这道题就这三个主要错误都找出来了,而且论证的挺好的:)
加油!
个人感觉可以在不种traditional crops上再作点文章,比如说这种东西在国内很common,但是在international market上可以买到很高的价格,和rice做对比 |
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